It's happening now. Or isn't happening. We'll know at the end of summer. The next three months are going to be all important in the housing market, and the three months after that will seal the deal. (With all the weasel words and revisions, I don't think we'll know the real numbers until a few months after the fact.)

It would be interesting to set benchmarks in advance, to gauge failure or success. There are just too many ways to weasel out of the statistics.

First of all, I would limit my guesses to Bend, so we can compare like to like. Also, try to avoid comparing stats with either the boom years or the much slower years before that, but instead concentrate on the numbers we need to achieve now. So, if we sell 200 houses in June, for instance, which would be a huge improvement over now, us bubble busters can't just go back a couple of years and say, Yeah, but we sold 350 in 2005, or whatever. Nor can the kool-aid boosters say, yeah, but 200 is a huge improvement over January.

Some of you guys are more up on the statistics more than I, but my rough guess is that we'll see a 10 to 20% increase in the inventory of houses for sale, (with a huge bulge behind that just waiting to flop out onto the market if sales perk up.) So, if the latest numbers of For Sale houses is around 1875, we'll see that increase to 2250 or so?

I'm guessing even more; 2400 housing inventory at the peak.

I think anything under 100 sales a month during the normally busy months would be a confirmed disaster; anything under 200 won't make much headway against the tide.

Anything over 300 a month on a sustained basis and I bow down before the superior prescience of the real estaters (even though that number would probably only hold our head above water -- still, I'd be amazed.) Anything between 200 and 300 would be a gray area where both sides could claim success.

I'm guessing a peak of 125 houses sold in the busiest month.

Housing prices are a whole nother animal, and I don't expect prices to drop rapidly. The saying that prices are 'sticky' seems to be really true. But, to me, the important numbers are how many houses are for sale, and how many actually sell. Prices are all psychological; but a house actually selling is a confirmed event.

Especially now, since we can assume the buyer actually put money down and had good, confirmed credit and income, and a realistic chance of paying back the loan.

If the prices don't unstick this selling season, and I don't really expect more than token drops, then we have to suffer another lousy year before people really start to get real. I don't think 5% or 10% or even 15% drops are going to do it. If we start seeing across the board drops of 15%, maybe, but not the occasional house. (But then if the situation continues to decline nationwide, the drops will need to be even more next year, and then if it gets worse, more, and .....worst case scenario.)

The other important number is how many building permits are issued. This is the biggest impending disaster for the next two or three years. I think anything under 100 building permits per month in the busy spring and summer months will cut into local employment even further. I actually wonder if we'll do even half that much. So a lot of construction people will be scrambling for work....the more nimble ones will accept work whatever and where-ever it's available.

I'm guessing a 40 building permits on the peak month.

I would be more than open to suggestions as to what the current stats are, and what an appropriate benchmark for gauging success or failure would be. Otherwise, the goalposts just seem to shift in the middle of the game -- on both sides of the field.


I found the following current stats, and so revised the above entry:

Feb sold stats as of 3/1/08.

Bend Residential homes on less than an acre:
45 Sold @ median of $322,500
Bend all types of residential
58 Sold @ median of $327,500
Current active listings are 1876.
Hopefully a few more sales will be reported next week as brokers catch up with reporting to MLS.
There seems to be more homes going pending the past 60 days though.

In 2007 the numbers were:
Bend all types res
169 Sold @ $335k
in 2006 it was 190 Sold @$336k