Friday, March 21, 2008

To me, the following is the BIGGEST CENTRAL OREGON STORY OF THE YEAR!; covered by the Oregonian, of course.

This is a size 16 shoe dropping, caked in cement, and dropped from the roof. This is just a killer deal. (I'm starting to sound like Bilbo, but I do believe this is a revolting development for Bend.)

NOTE: After I wrote this, I realized they're not saying everyone has to have 20% down, just that the terms will be more onerous. So....not as bad as I thought, but bad enough.

Just another indication of how terms are tightening up.


Oregonian.

Insurers flag Jackson, Deschutes counties
Friday, March 21, 2008

Raising the bar for obtaining mortgage insurance in central Oregon's Deschutes County likely won't affect many of the buyers at the region's proliferating destination resort developments because those buyers generally can put 20 percent down on their home purchases, said Tom Greene, principal broker at RE/MAX Equity Group in Bend and president of the Central Oregon Association of Realtors.

But, Greene said, the new rules could harm first-time homebuyers with little cash to put into a purchase. "It's going to be tough if that portion of the market goes away," he said.

But things are already tough in Bend's market. From 2006 to 2007, the median home price fell by nearly 2 percent in Bend, from $351,978 to $345,000, according to the Central Oregon Association of Realtors. This after Bend briefly led the country in home price increases.

The number of homes sold is down about a quarter, and time needed to sell houses has gone up more than that. The local real estate industry has responded by launching a "Best Buyers' Market in 20 Years," campaign. But the new restrictions aren't likely to help that effort.

The housing market has also soured in southern Oregon's Jackson County, which includes Medford and Ashland, another area flagged as a risky spot by some mortgage insurers.

The median price of homes in incorporated cities of Jackson County of $247,700 is down 8.2 percent from the same time last year, according to Roy Wright, a Medford appraiser.

Because of the declining market, lenders already don't offer 100 percent financing of homes, said William Gill, branch manager of America First Funding in Medford. One of his clients was approved for a loan of 100 percent of the value of the home, but Gill said he was only permitted to finance 95 percent.

"The same borrower buying a house in Medford versus Grants Pass now has to have $12,000 and change in cash," said Gill. That's had a disproportionate effect on first-time homebuyers."

Gill said he's having trouble keeping up with all the new restrictions the mortgage insurers are introducing. "It seems like they are tightening every day," he said.

-- Matthew Preusch

And the good news just keeps coming.

Bend is different. Bend house buyers can all afford 20% down.

In fact, I'm going to do an informal survey at my store. How many people bought their house with 20% or more down? I'll start with myself. We bought our house with 10% down; and we would never have bought a house at all with a larger downpayment, because by the time we would've saved it, we would have been priced out.

15 comments:

Duncan McGeary said...

That's the straw, I think. Only selling houses with 20% is going to eliminate much of the market in Bend.

That plus the Bear Stearns melt-down, just as the spring market was beginning....

A couple of more big bad stories, and you can kiss the "Best Time to Buy in 20 Years" campaign goodbye.

And yes, Buster, I know it's already toast. But it will be toast in EVERYONE'S eyes, even the most uninformed.

Duncan McGeary said...

Am I misunderstanding this? Maybe they just mean that the terms are more onerous, not that you can't buy for less than 20%.

So.....not quite as bad. But bad enough.

RDC said...

I for one have never purchased a house with less than 20% down (though in a couple of cases that 20% included forgiveable loans from my employer during relocations).

These days I put 100% down. Debt is Debt is Debt. A mortgage on your house is still a loan that incurs interest and even at small amounts compounded interest builds up over time.

Duncan McGeary said...

We bought in March of '04. A 170k house. A few months more, and we wouldn't have been able to buy -- to this day.

Our income was barely sufficient, our credit O.K. We had zero debt.

So we squeeked in, at 5.85 fixed 30 year.

Last appraisal; 350k. Current Zillow; 280k.

24 months ago, I started paying double my mortgage each month, even though our income hasn't really changed all that much.

So for us, the looser standards worked. We were what they probably had in mind.

I'm hoping to pay double for 3 years, and that should cut my 30 years in half, and we'll get the tax benefits right up my retirement age.

Shannon said...

I have bought two homes in my short life ... One was $80K and I only had 15% to put down and that was given to me by my Dad.

The second was here in Bend and there was NO WAY we could come up with $50K so my in-laws borrowed us some of the cash with a no interest low we've just about paid off.

What newly married couple buying a starter home can put down $60K?

RDC said...

Duncan,

Since you want tax benefits I will tell you what. I will give you the equivalent of all of the tax benefits you want. For every dollar you give me I will give you 45 cents back. I will do that for as many dollars as you want.

Anonymous said...

Insurers flag Jackson, Deschutes counties
Friday, March 21, 2008

*

Dunc, I wrote about this extensively two months ago when the PMI folk first did this for cali & tacoma, and left BEND out, at the time I thought it was politial, even my wife who reads my WSJ every AM said this AM,"DO YOU KNOW THAT BEND is a second tier foreclosure capital", to I replied "YES DEAR".

Bend is TOXIC, as I have said since the beginning here, soon it will be IMPOSSIBLE to get money, NOBODY will touch BEND.

Now why is HOLLERN&COBA bringing 5,000 new units into the market this year?

Anonymous said...

To comment on RDC, well ME TOO, to add insult to INJURY I have NEVER gotten a loan for less than 33% down, as an investors IN MY DAY have always had to pay 1/3 down.

The PROBLEM as I have said all along RDC, when you integrate,

1.) 20%
2.) good job
3.) over 720 FICO

You just knocked 90% of home-buyers off the wagon.

So who in the HELL is going to BUY all our inventory? First of all TURNOVER just went 10X, secondly DEMAND for BEND is down 100X.

Then what in the HELL do any of you think, we have been OFHEO's most 'dangerous list' for the past four years, and now we're going to hear "WHO WOULD HAVE KNOWN".

We'll everybody and their DOG knew that Bend was over-valued by OFHEO except BULL&SORE readers.

Quimby said...

RDC, please expand on this idea. My wife and I sometimes argue about "Tax Breaks" for interest on the mortgage. I say debt is debt, but she likes the tax breaks....

Duncan McGeary said...

bem,

Lost your message.

Hey, I lasted 3 days...doesn't that count as a moratorium?

Anonymous said...

Quimby,
There are an amazing number of myths about home ownership out there. Back in my days as a practicing CPA (like most doctors and other 'professionals' I was constantly learning / practicing my trade while OTJ - on the job) I used to tell my tax clients who were wildly enthusiastic about their tax deductions that no one is in the 100% tax bracket. "Buying" tax deductions is a fools game. The major benefit of borrowing money to purchase a home is the ability to leverage. Any "tax breaks" that you might get are just political frosting on the cake. But to take advantage of the leveraging concept the buyer had better be able to make the payments or any benefits of leverage while appreciation is happening will be lost. And always remember that a home is first and foremost shelter - it is most definitely NOT an "investment". Over time the stock market has outperformed owner-occupied real estate so if you want an investment, as opposed to shelter, buy shares in a well-managed, diversified, no load, mutual fund that is tied to the market.

Quimby said...

Thanks for the info Bike. I have this battle brewing inside me to either pay off my house or keep my cash stashed for some bad shit on the way. My life I view as a progression, notching off possessions and accomplishments as I march along. No house payment would be a big notch in my mind as I HATE DEBT of any kind, just out of principle. And yes, my house is my home, not a true investment.

Duncan McGeary said...

O.K. O.K. I'm addicted to the subject.

We bubble busters have shouted down all opposition on our blogs.

But you still hear these incredibly naive and misguided objections on the Wandering Eye and Bend Economy Bulletin Board, and I just want to shake these people.

"Don't your realize that the credit market has changed? Completely changed?

BEND is NOT above or separate from the total economic market. We're headed for a recession.

Take out all those elements we're so fond of talking about: prices, inventory, and so on.

The Credit Market is now in charge, and the Media has nothing to do with it.

RDC said...

Quimby,

The issue with tax benefits is that they give you a percentage of what you spend back. Even in high tax states and in a high tax bracket the most you can get back is 45 cents on the dollar. If you spend the money you end up with at most 45 cents, if you don't spend the money you end up with 100 cents.

One can use all kinds of logic into talking them selves into the concept that spending the money and getting the tax benefit will help someone build wealth. THe problem is that the benefit more often goes into overspending and justifying a larger loan then it does really help someone economically.

So I always ask someone the following question.

What are you going to do with the benefit (invest or spend)?

If you are going to invest, what are you going to invest it in, basically you need to invest it in something that pays as much as the interest you are paying on the loan (keep in mind that profits earned are most likely also taxable)

In each case the results and situations vary, but hardly ever do I see someone that talks about the tax benefits ever bother ot actually model out the impact upon their future wealth.

RDC said...

Bilbobend,

That is why the transition is a less leveraged environment is going to be painful.

While it will take time, eventually it will be worked through. There will certainly be deflation in the Bend housing market while that occurs.