Sunday, January 31, 2010

Inadvertent Abstinence.

I never set out to stop drinking. I like beer and wine, and I drank almost every weekend in college and beyond. I'd sit down a beer when I'd start writing. I'd drink at writer's group when they were still serving...

I'd tailed off over the years, because I married a non-drinker. But I'd still get a buzz on late at night, sometimes. I found it valuable in that it knocked me out of my ruts, sometimes, gave me a slightly different perspective. And it often crystallized for me what was most important at the moment.

Still, in my early 40's, I decided to take a year break from drinking to see if it changed anything.

It didn't seem to change much, or so I thought.

It wasn't until I went back to drinking occasionally that I noticed something.

I would often feel either emotionally and socially vulnerable for a few days after, or I would have a much shorter temper.

It didn't seem to matter whether I drank one or two beers or a full six-pack. The results were the same.

And my sleep patterns would be totally disrupted if I drank more than one or two days in a row.

So every time I would think about drinking, I would ask myself: Are you in the clear for the next few days as far as anything challenging?

The answer, since I work most days, is almost always .....No. I'm not in the clear.

I hold the thought of drinking in my head for a few moments, and then it passes, and the next day I'm usually glad I didn't do it.

Lately, I've even been turning down the offer of a beer or a glass of wine at family dinners and gathering, which was pretty much the last place I was doing it.

Oh, I'll probably still drink a bit a few times of year. I drank at New Year's, for instance.

But it seems like I hardly drink at all, and I never set out to do that.

Stuck accelerator....

I can't believe an entire month has already gone by. My internal time clock is stuck with a Toyota accelerator, and I don't seem to have a neutral shift.

Time to do my monthly orders for the store, again.

I'm keeping my pre-orders low for the time being. I get a slightly better discount when I pre-order. But it's pretty much pure guesswork.

On the other hand, re-orders by definition are things I have proof I actually sell.

**********

I experimented with how long a full night's charge would last on my MacBook: All day Friday and the first hour Saturday. So now I know I need to hook up every night; I pretty much leave it on most of the day at the store, but I thought the creature was going into hibernation. Or....maybe Solitaire just takes up lots of juice...

I've decided to call it Fred.

**********

So I've exactly broken even in January: expenses/sales.

But I won't be so lucky next month, since I've been pounding on buying the 'sale' product from everyone. There is always more of the discounted stuff this time of year, and it has more effect. And what doesn't sell, is here for summer and Christmas.

It's nice to be able to take advantage of the deals, and in theory if I sell enough of them, I can take advantage of future deals. Prosperity buying prosperity, if you're not too stupid about it.

**********

I can't be bothered. That's my usual response to new technology.

But then I try it and I'm hooked.

Nevertheless, how many gadgets do I really need? I'm finally getting a cell phone because I want to be able to take time off, and I have three employees with insufficient hours to get all the training and messages they need, so I want them to be able to call me. On the other hand I want them to come up with their own common sense solutions to problems instead of over-training them. They come up with things I haven't thought of, sometimes...

I've also figured out another reason I haven't been utilizing all the tech around me. For instance, the last three CD players I've had have all malfunctioned after awhile. Maybe they just need cleaning, I don't know. But I just stop using them.

Neither of my desk computers have sound, so I'm not partial to all the video and music online.

The other day, I started fiddling with the new car stereo, and it had some amazing sound, and I found KPOV, which at least plays interesting music, and I realized that my old radio was so basic and tinny that I just lost interest.

Maybe that's why. Either I'm too dumb to figure out all the capabilities, or the damn things don't work just right, and I just give up.

Since the laws of entroopy break everything down, it's a very Zen response, I think.

A bare room and my thoughts.

**********

I seem to think of my sister Tina every night just before bed, and every morning when I wake up. Then, during the day, I get busy.

But I also get reminders from friends who are just finding out, and dropping in or calling or e-mailing me. Mattie thinks she's going to try to have a Memorial on March 20th, at Hollingshead Barn, but that isn't firm yet. I'll try to update the plans.

It's just sinking in that I won't be able to scoot by Tina's for a good chat....

**********

Speaking of gadgets, what with Tina's illness and doing inventory at the store, I just haven't had time to get my big-screen T.V.

I'm pretty much settled on a 65 inch LCD, which will cost a pretty penny.

One universal piece of advice I've heard: "I wish I had gone BIGGER!"

**********

We're going to see our financial guy tomorrow morning. We still haven't finished off Lois's affairs. One of the banks has been less than cooperative about the transfer, and Linda is just tired of the whole thing, but we're hoping with help to finish it off tomorrow.

We still have to find out what the tax bill for Lois will be.

So, in the end, the predicted six month period of wrangling will turn out to be right on.

**********

A friend who had a colonoscopy which found rectal cancer was urging me to get the procedure.

"Just think of it as being abducted by Aliens...."

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Did I mention I'm allergic to Sage?

Approaching a new low in CACB stock price.

I'm writing this early Friday afternoon, and it's at .65. Previous low was .61.

It'll be interesting if the aggressively grown bank survives regularly scheduled FDIC Friday bank gleanings, to see what the stock does next week. CACB is further proof to me that it's dangerous to try to maximize a bubble, though you look like a winner when it's happening.

**********

I've now had three different people comment on the "new electronic" smell of my MacBook. Is that like the "new car" smell, or....the "new book" smell?

This generation's nostalgia is going to be so different from my generation's nostalgia...

**********

I'm going to go all non-analytical here, and just knee-jerk some reactions.

I like the idea of a "spending freeze." I do it at the store all the time.

Drop the filibuster rules and let the Republicans filibuster for real. See how that plays out.
I'm thinking their total non-cooperation is going to come back and bite THEM in the ass.

KTVZ's rules about posting comments don't seem sufficient to me for them to have ratted out the posters.

UGB -- It doesn't seem to me that we NEED the room. And there is no reason we can't get more room WHEN we need it. (And probably wouldn't cost anymore than the frakken appeal...)

**********

O.K. I'm going to put this fairly bluntly. And even so, I know someone will disagree.

But coming in with the title of a book isn't 1/10th as useful as coming in with the author's name. As far as I know, and all I've ever seen, is that every bookstore and library in the world sorts their books by subject and then by author's last name.

Oh, you can often find the book by searching the title online (as long as it's accurate, which often it's not, and again it's easier to find an author if you misspell than a title...) into a data base, but it's an extra step, to be sure.

Just saying...

**********

My Bad.

I washed my car on Thursday.

Sorry about the snow.

**********

I almost didn't buy the MacBook because it doesn't have the version of Solitaire I like so much.

Vegas Style, three passes through with three card turns, costs 55.00 per game in funny money and you get 5.00 for each card stacked.

I buy very expensive internet browsers and solitaire players, basically.

**********

Juxtaposition #1.

From today's Bulletin, by way of the NYT's: BELIEVE IT OR NOT, EXISTING-HOME SALES ROSE IN 2009.

From the Bend Economy Bulletin Board as of January 29: January, 2010 Notices of default -- 402. (A record.)

Juxtapostion #2.

Headline in business section: U.S. ECONOMY SHOWS SIGNS OF MOMENTUM.

Right next to it: OREGON RANKS THIRD IN U.S. FOR 'UNDEREMPLOYMENT.'

*********

Let me get this straight, Bulletin.

Land-use laws are only useful when convenient, and should be disregarded when they keep the land-users from making money.

Well....if the law is convenient, it isn't necessary.

And it seems to me that environmental laws almost always get in the way of money-making, exploitation of natural resources. That's WHY we have them. I'm sure it's easier and more profitable to strip-mine, for instance, and not have to repair the damage.

In fact, show me an environmental law that wasn't necessitated by the common good versus short-term profiteering and exploitation.

Though your concern for the small farmer is heart-warming, Bulletin.

But your full-court press on behalf of destination resorts seems oddly out of time and place.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Brushy Sage.

'BEND WONDERING WHEN IT WILL HIT BOTTOM" Today's Oregonian.

Because every town needs that 'other' town they can point at and go "Tsk. Tsk."

I did like, though, that there is a realistic tone to us Bendites mood, as quoted in the article.

"In my personal opinion, we will be among the last places to recover," Bend City Manager Eric King says.

Single family home permits down 90%....

**********


"Are you on Facebook?" Ginger asked, at the last writer's group.

"No...." I said, starting to explain....like I always have to explain why I'm not selling online or why I don't have a cell phone or all the other techie things that techies think I should do.

"I wondered. Because your blog is just like most Facebook entries."

You know what? That sort of made me wince, I'm not sure why....

**********

Liz said she found out of print games while she was inventorying, that are going for 75.00 on E-Bay.

One of these days...

**********

Looks like I've adopted that rapscallion Bilbo/Buster.

As the big guys say: "His opinions are his and do not necessarily reflect the views of management..."

I like his energy, and he often has something worthwhile to say if you can wade through it. He may be profane and I don't like a lot of his opinions toward minorities, but believe it or not he's actually toned it down a little. Which I appreciate.

I'd advise you to read him or not read him, you can usually tell it's him, rather than me muzzle him. But I'd ask him to keep it under control.

(Of course, this will probably just set him off.)

**********

Last Dollhouse on tonight? That is, if you're still keeping track.

**********

I bought my MacBook. I bought the aluminum one that costs a couple hundred more. The guy working in the place told me their mark-up on Apple and I just shook my head. That small a mark-up would barely pay the electricity in my store.

Liz helped me configure it. I already have wireless at the store because of the P.O.S. system.

I love the lightup keyboard, though I actually turned off the lights to make use of them. Heh.

Dangerous capability. Sitting on the couch in front of the T.V. with laptop on lap. Oh, oh.

**********

Obama's gone too far! Where do I go to join the Tea-baggers!!

He's canceled the moon mission!!!

Um....Tea baggers would be mad about that, wouldn't they?

**********

The ranks of the homeless grow ever larger.

Can't we find a home for the Bruce West sculpture? It's just so sad to see it abandoned, like that...

**********

Why do the deaths of J.D. Salinger and Howard Zinn seem so sycronistic to me? They were nothing alike....Old writers. Charismatic writers, one reclusive and one pretty out there.

Not sure.

Seems like the end of an era, somehow.

**********

Visiting economist, Bill Watkins:(Today's Bulletin.)

"Housing sales will remain low, there will be little construction and unemployment likely will stay at about 15 percent duing the next two years."

How much did they pay for that? Cause I would have told them the same thing for half the price!

"...retail sales will start picking up again, potentially as soon as this year."

Good to know.

"The construction jobs that Central Oregonians lost could be replaced by work in leisure and hospitality industries...."

Construction guy 20.00 an hour job, meet your new 8.50 'hospitality job.'

**********

Linda was wondering if she would need to take her new Rav to Toyota to get fixed.

"What't the problem?"

"It could have a stuck accelerater. People were getting up to 100 miles an hour and crashing and dying."

"Um.....put it in neutral?"

"That's what they're suggesting...."

"Well, pardon me....but duh! Maybe this is just a Darwinian way to weed out the completely stupid!!!!"

"But people panic," Linda says. Just then a woman comes up with some books, and hears the last part of the conversation.

"Well, you just slam on the brakes," the woman says.

"They tried that," Linda says. "It didn't work."

Linda and I exchange a glance. Case closed.

**********

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Sage-Brush.

Only took me eight minutes to drive from my garage to the parking garage Wednesday morning.

8 minutes.

I used to give myself a half an hour.

**********

A few months ago, I learned that a space I've always coveted (much bigger) was leasing for a full 33% less than I'm paying, and without the dreaded Triple Net!

Today, I noticed another space that Linda and I seriously considered for the Bookmark was at a full 50% less than we're currently paying.

So while downtown Bend continues to have pretty good fill rate, the rents are definitely down.

**********

So Steve Jobs unveils the Apple Tablet. There's quite the reasoned essay on the members only comic book bulletin board about how this technology will be the end of us.

I figure by the time these things put us out of business I'll already be out of business.

Hah.

**********

One of the responses to Bruce's Wandering Eye column about "whining" over Measures 66 and 67, was from a guy who said he wasn't whining.

No. He was leaving Oregon.

Oh, good. You're not complaining about a call that didn't go your way, you are going to leave the game completely.

That's so much better.

**********

So, I've decided on a MacBook. I'm thinking the aluminum case, with the lit keyboard. (For all those times I'm camping , or something....heh.) Actually, I'm thinking there might be less confusion, since Linda already has a white MacBook.

Linda was browsing online about the Ipad this morning, and I could see the gleam in her eyes. She loves gadgets. "It's a cool gadget," I said. "But let's wait for them to work out the kinks and improve it."

Funny thing is, I'm the guy who reads a book, lists it n my "Book of Read", and takes it back to the store. The idea of a 'Pad' full of literature is actually....appealing. Can you imagine the buggy whip maker seeing his first car, and saying to himself, "Wow! That's Cool!!"

Meanwhile, I'm going to finally break down and finally, finally get a cell phone. Verizon, with a whatyoumacallit to get wireless for my new MacBook. If I'm going to have a bunch of young employees, I want them to have immediately access to me to ask questions.

So I'm going over this afternoon, to the Computer Connection.

Liz Courts has been doing my inventory for me, and she's been brilliant. See, when I bought the point of sale computer, I just assumed there was a universal data base that included all my product, and all I'd need to do is run my scanner-gun across them.

Nope.

Diamond had their database, that only went back a couple of years -- and they weren't exactly helpful in seeing that I need a much broader reach than that. (I don't just carry comics and graphic novels, but books and toys and games and and and....)

So I walked in the other day, and Liz was scanning things at a furious pace.

"How are you doing that?" I asked.

"Oh," she says. "I just went to Amazon, and use theirs."

"You know what, Liz? No one I talked to thought of that. The 'experts' at Diamond certainly didn't."

Apparently, so far, she hasn't found anything that isn't included in Amazon's database. Hah.

I told Aaron, my tech guy, what she did, and he laughed. Like I said, none of us bright guys had thought of that.

Anyway, I'm losing Liz to Portland next week. I tried to figure out a way to keep her in Bend, "so you won't have to go to Portland...."

"That's just it," she said. "I've been trying to get to Portland for years."

Sigh.

I'm back to my old strategy of hiring high school age, mostly. They can accept, indeed really only want, a few hours a week. Just means that our vacations will need to be in the summers when they can work more hours.

So I'm going to get my MacBook this afternoon, then have Liz show me what to do. She has done all the books and artbooks and I think most of the games, but we still need to do the biggest chunk, graphic novels....

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

This and that and this

Was talking to a good friend who is involved in the administration part of government and he had some pretty good arguments against measures 66 and 67.

"Yeah," I said, " but the argument was framed "if the poor little corporations are taxed it will....."

Defending Corporations is a losing argument, right now, and it's no ones fault but big business. Unions don't happen to be the big bad boogeyman, right now.

I really don't want to get into an argument about the merits of the measure, but just to measure the public anger.

Wonder what would happen if there was a national referendum on universal healthcare and banking reform.....

**********

Wow. KTVZ gave up the names of anonymous posters on the Tami Sawyer stories?

That's scary, 1.) because Tami would do such a thing and what she could do with that knowledge.
2.) that KTVZ actually had the names of anonymous posters.
3.) that KTVZ would wuss out so quietly and quickly.

**********

Woke up with a fiction story in mind last week, quickly wrote it out, really liked it.

First 3 people who read it, completely misunderstood what was happening.

I set it aside and then read it at Farewell Bend Writer's Group last night -- and immediately realized that it was unclear and why. I don't know why, but I find the writer's groups criticisms are pretty close to the mark, even when it's my material they're commenting on. Even the act of reading it out loud to others, will usually improve the story.

Re-writing it will be twice as hard -- ten times harder -- than the original burst of inspiration. I enjoy that first part of the creative process, (a quick flow of story and characters and action) and I'm better at it now than I used to be, but trying to make it publish worthy always reminds me that writing is hard work.

I think I'll probably finish it, because it's more or less a complete short story, and eventually post it on my writing site.

**********

The Bulletin editorializes that the state ought to pay for Bend's appeal of the UGB.

To which I say,

"Huh?"

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Smelly clump of mashed flowers and dried fruit.

Bill Gates started twittering last week.

I find that kind of weird.

Not that he's twittering, but that he just started, and that it's news.

**********

'LOCAL BANKERS SEE LITTLE BENEFIT TO STRICTER RULES." Bulletin, 10/26/10.

Some headlines just don't require comment.

But....I can't help it.

Wait! Really!! Are you sure!!!

**********

Went looking at Notebooks last night, and my eyes settled on the MacBook.

It just looks and feels right to me. Never mind the innards. It just has good feng shui.

Which is not like me.

Same with the big screen T.V.'s. For all intents and purposes, I can get everything I need from a 65" DLP, and it would cost less than half a 65" LED. But both Linda and I like the look and feel of the LED.

Am I at a point in my life where I'm willing to pay extra for style?

I already feel guilty spending money; spending extra for a little zing seems even more sinful.

**********

"JOBLESS RATES DIP SLIGHTLY" Bulletin, 10/26/10.

Um....if you say so. I think if you really, really squint at the charts you can see an itsy bitsy drop. Heh.

14.2 to 14.0 in Deschutes.

16.7 to 16.8 in Crook.

14.4 to 14.1 in Jefferson.

Those kinds of differences in my business stats are pretty much ignored. Or, if I was blogging it, I'd say -- "pretty much unchanged."

**********

Speaking of Notebooks. Should I be waiting to see what the new Apple Tablet will do? Will it have Notebook features? (My computer at home is ancient, folks....)

**********

"BORDERS GROUP ANNOUNCES DEPARTURE OF CEO." Yahoo Finance.

Think:

Rats. Ship. Sinking.

**********

GAHAN WILSON: FIFTY YEARS OF PLAYBOY CARTOONS.

How good is Gahan Wilson? I knew his name when I was probably 14 years old, when I didn't know another cartoonist. I remember the one with a giant python with a huge bulge and the caption, "Happiness is a Warm Puppy." I thought this hilarious, since I was a big Snoopy fan.
I would look for his art style eagerly. I also remember the one with a big monster crawling over a hill and below a brightly lit diner with a sign on top, "EAT".

Customer to cook: "You don't suppose he can read, do you?"

Also, ahem, means I was raiding my Dad's Playboys, which were buried under a pile of other magazines....

**********

I've been doing a lot of these Smelly Clumps of Mashed Flowers and Dried Fruit blogs, lately. (Popourri...get it?)

I've got some heavy duty essay types in my editing stage, but somehow I feel like lightening up, you know?

**********

Monday, January 25, 2010

The 2nd goal becomes 1st..

It's looking like I'll have higher sales this month, significantly higher, but very little profits. In fact, I'll probably just break even.

Next month, I'm assuming I'll have higher sales again, and this time maybe even carry a little credit card balance into the following month.

This is the new paradigm for my business-- what I'm terming a "working profit." By which I mean, I'm taking out my own wages and paying the other overhead and buying inventory and breaking even.

I'm not trying to build up cash; either for the retirement or emergencies.

This is all strictly on purpose.

I've always maintained that you need to have a minimum of two results to make a business work. You can -- possibly -- keep a business afloat for a short time without one or the other of the two, but not forever. Obviously, #1 is more important than #2, but not by as much as you might think.

1). You need to make money.

2.) You need to have fun.

I believe the second goal is nearly as important as the first, and it seems to me I've seen as many businesses quit for the second reason as the first. (Though, most often, they are inextricably linked. Not making money is no fun, you know.) Burnout happens when you work really hard, and the results don't equal the work.

Anyway, after this many years it's as important for me to be engaged and interested in what I'm doing as it is to make money -- maybe more so, now that I'm not totally dependent on the business for survival.

Oh, sure. I could retrench for long periods of time, watch my pennies, and take satisfaction out of turning a bad situation into a profitable one.

But only for so long. It's a real drag.

People often say, "Wow. This must be a fun business. Games and Toys and Books and Comics, etc. You must get to play all day.

Well, no....though it doesn't hurt that what I sell is interesting stuff.

But that isn't really it.

What's important to me is that I Have My Own Business. That I Am My Own Boss. That I Make The Decisions.

When I do something, when I make a change, or an addition, I get to watch and see if it works. I get to play with it all.

I don't care how stupid and inept you are, if you do something for 25 -30 years, you tend to get pretty good at it. There is great satisfaction in seeing it pan out.

If I had to sum it up, it would be ----------

--------------

--------------Pride of Ownership.



Now, I know some people are in business strictly for the money.

Other people are in it for the activity.

I'm in it for the job of trying to do it right. (I'm not saying I'm doing it perfectly right, but I'm trying and trying.) My strongest motivation is to create the best store I can accomplish. I've never understood people who let their stores get messy. Who aren't curious about how it all works, who don't analyze and experiment and gather information. Who seem to want nothing more than to get away from their store -- to hire a manager and become "Lord of the Manor."

Maybe someday I'll see Pegasus Books as a revenue stream only, but I think if that day comes the wheels will start to come off the engine of the store unless I'm lucky and I've found that person who can do the job almost as well as me, and who takes an equal pride in the store.

Until then, I want to be fully engaged, which means buying the stuff I think the store needs (and, I have to face it -- I really like buying stuff; and I like seeing if the stuff sells; and if it doesn't sell, I like to see if there is some way to minimize the damage; and so on and so on.)

The process itself is the part that is enjoyable.

Frankly, it's not all that different from writing a novel, or creating a garden. You can't do it overnight, you have to really keep applying yourself toward the task, you need to be creative, you need to visualize the final result, and you keep being surprised by the parts that don't work and parts that take off unexpectedly, and you get feedback from the customers, and inside you know what you've accomplished.

I'm making a 'living wage' finally, and I don't discount the importance of that. But the real fun is in continuing to grow the store.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Downtown Openings and Closings.

Actually the News here, is that there IS no news.

Here we are, almost to the end of January, and as far as I can tell, no one has closed or opened.

If ever there was a time that someone would throw in the towel, you'd think it would be after Christmas, and before the long dry six month spell between mid-January and mid-June.

But I've noticed before there isn't much of a 1/1 correlation; probably having more to do with the terms of leases and such.

Anyway, No News Is Good News.

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails



BUSINESS'S LEAVING

***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Time and passing.

I've really messed up my last four visits to my sister's, over the last 10 days or so. For which I could kick myself. I managed to arrive her house when she was already so tired from the day that she couldn't respond, or when other necessary nursing things were happening.

But the speed of her decline really caught me off guard. I knew that I would soon need to up my visits from every two days to every day, but a couple of other things got in the way, and I was surprised by what happened.

It probably shouldn't have surprised me. A month ago, she was talking about going on long trips to visit old friends, and she was still taking chemotherapy.

Then a couple of weeks back, I turned to my wife as we drove away, and said, "She's letting go."

Now they've moved her to a hospice bed in the living room.

We visited last night, and it really hit me. The room was full of people talking and laughing in the background, but it was like I had a sadness cocoon around me as I sat in the chair by her bed.

Like our Mom before her, her many friends and her family are rallying. It's nice that my siblings have done well enough in life that they can come and do this.

Her kids, Mattie and Sam, are here, and Ernie has been a rock.

Tina (Pool) McGeary has been calm and cheerful through it all. It just not fair that a spirit and personality as large and kind and generous and funny as hers doesn't have another 20 years to enlarge and fill the people around her. I'm going to miss her.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Sagebrush.

What's with Cascade Bancorp? Down, down, down -- then up 30% in one day, and then down 15% over the next 3 days...

Meanwhile, Columbia River Bank goes down for the count.

Guess who Linda and I got our original home loan from?

**********

Really? Seriously? You want to maintain that unlimited corporate advertising isn't going to sway the election outcomes?

So advertising doesn't work? Or advertising works and you don't care that our country can now be bought and sold?

I can't tell if the defense of this action is completely naive or completely cynical.

**********

For the second time since I've been reading the Source, a Wandering Eye column has been removed. What's with that? It was a commentary on the Facebook Server "farm". I'm thinking maybe the math was off? (I also thought of parsing the math, but quickly realized it was beyond my legal-fu and math-fu.)

One thing about a personal blog; no one can remove it but me.

Another thing about a personal blog -- no one can keep me from pointing out when someone else has been censored.

Censored may seem a harsh word, but unless the Source explains Why it took that action, that's what it looks like.

The best solution would be to let the truth be hammered out in the comments, and if there is information that needs to be corrected, then do so, and make a note of it.

But removing it completely? That just makes me wonder how free the columnist really is to state his opinion, you know?

(Besides....Bruce called me the "Sage of Minnesota Avenue" in the censored entry..... Heh.....ha,.....hee,hee....

Though I've noticed that whenever HBM mentions me in the online column, it isn't printed in the actual paper. Which seems kind of petty to me, but .... shrug....)

*****UPDATE********

Bruce responds: "Before everybody gets all paranoid, let me explain that the Source website crashed yesterday and all of the content after Jan. 19 was lost. I have restored the three Wandering Eye posts that were lost, including the one about Facebook's server farm."

Oh................nevermind.


**********

Watched Caprica last night, and sure enough the B.S.G. guys are up to their old, wonderful, tricks.

Also watched the last Conan last night, and Tom Hanks was smooth and amusing, as usual, and Neil Young is eternal, and Will Ferrell.....sucked as a singer. A 30 second joke turned into a lame ending....

********

The economy is undergoing a recovery?

According to economist Alan Beaulieu, today's Bulletin:

"....(but) with a broad, rocky bottom we're going to crawl through then claw our way up the other side..."

Well, alrighty then. When you put it THAT way.

I don't know about you, but crawling and clawing through rocky bottoms sounds painful...

**********

The Oberdoferman apologizes for being "over the top lately."

You think? (Linda commented; you have to watch out for becoming what you hate. Oberdoferman doesn't want to become the Fox of the other other side....)

Jon Stewart saying that he had "lost the high ground" was really telling, I think. And Oberdoferman was actually savvy enough to realize it.

Jon Stewart is King.

**********

Friday, January 22, 2010

"No Snow."

Uh....Bulletin?

"No Snow?"

Nice timing....

**********

Local Real Estate Blog yesterday trumpeted that home prices had gone "up". No...prices are going down, but the prices of the houses that sold happened to be more than the prices of the month before. Two different things. One is reality, the other is happenstance.

++++++++++

"Enterprise Zone Lured Facebook." Whenever I hear the words, "enterprise zone" I think: we gave it to them.

Actually, I'm not against this process, I just wonder how it pencils out.

**********

A destination resort bites the dust. (Though I noticed from the picture, they still seem to be watering the incomplete golf course...)

Remington Ranch. I love the subtitle: "Developers remain committed to building resort..."

Uh. Right. Good idea.

**********

Missing from the discussion of the Urban Growth Boundary are any realistic estimates of whether the population of Bend is currently increasing or decreasing, and if increasing, by how much? And for how long? Or can we look forward to explosive growth again? Or is there going to be a long lull?

Apparently, the city is still in denial. It still thinks it NEEDS more space.

Oh, well. What's a few million dollars here or there...

**********

I've loved the "fracas" on Conan and Letterman. But when it's over, I'll probably stop watching again. Meanwhile, I'm hoping that the new show Caprica will be at least half as good as Battlestar Galactica... This year has been pretty lean on good shows. The Good Wife has been good; though it's the type of evening soap opera I don't usually watch. Castle and Mentalist always have a couple a good 'moments', though the rest of the shows are pretty average. CSI L. V. is still good, but not as great as it once was.

Just can't get into NCIS and Bones or which the rest of my family seems to love.

I've given Fringe second and third chances, and it still bores me. It just doesn't have the wit and humor and depth of X-Files. Everyone points to the crazy dad as being interesting, but his craziness just isn't believable to me. It's Hollywood crazy, whatever crazy it needs to make the plot work.

I watch no reality shows or situation comedies. The Oberdoferman has become insufferable; and Rachel has gotten a little too politically correct. Thank god for the Daily Show.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

There and back again.

A Mother came in looking for The Hobbit, and I didn't have it in stock.

Me. Duncan McGeary, who probably only owns this store because of The Hobbit, DIDN'T HAVE IT IN STOCK.!

I humble my head in shame and vow that it shall never happen again!

**********

I just ordered a $450.00 retail life-sized Iron Man Helmet.

Shiny!

Who says I don't advertise?

I saw an article about a new comic shop, and it showed the owners sitting at a table with a life-sized Green Goblin head, and it just really popped out of the picture. I used to have a life-sized Venom head, which eventually sold. I almost bought a life-sized Hulk head, and I almost bought a half-sized Joker head. I did actually sell a half-sized Batman head. It's the kind of thing I usually back down from after thinking it over.

I've gotten hundreds of comments about my steam-punk raygun ($700.00) but haven't come even close to selling it.

I'm expecting a bit of extra profit this month, so I thought, why not?

I don't actually expect to sell the Iron Man Helmet, but with the movie coming out, I think it will look pretty impressive behind the counter.

**********

So Morgan Stanley has given themselves 16.4 billion in salary and bonuses.

Excuse my language, but $#&$& #**$&&#!! $&$**(%*&(#&#(*(&&$&&#&!!!!!!!!!

**********

Linda came bustling into my room while I was on my first cup of coffee.

"Wow. Slow down," I said.

"I'm too busy to slow down!" she snorted.

"Yeah. I'm putting that on my gravestone...."

**********

There's a Twilight Graphic Novel, the first half of the prose novel, coming out on March 16th.

How much to order?

No matter what I do, I'll either order too little or too much. Based on the Anita Blake and Buffy adaptations, I think I could sell 10 copies over a long period of time even if there is only a little interest.

If there is HUGE interest, Today Show interview Front Page USA TODAY, level interest, I could sell much more.

What to do. What to do.

**********

AMC (makers of Mad Men) has commissioned a pilot of The Walking Dead, which is probably my best-selling 'mainstream' graphic novel of the last few years. (If a book about zombies can be considered 'mainstream'....)

You know, this could make a pretty good series. It's more about how people band together in difficult times than it is about Zombies, really. Combined with post-holocaust.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Holiday and the chains.

Interesting list of 10 stores who's Holiday Sales may necessitate closing some outlets in 2010. (Warning> this is just a prediction on the part of the article, not yet a fact.)

From 24/7 Wall St.

ZALES: Down 11% 3rd Qt., 2009. 'Will' close 200 stores.

ABERCROMBIE AND FITCH: Down 15 to 17% same store sales, 4th Qt., 2009. 'Will' close 179 stores.

GAMESTOP: "Below forecast..." 'Will' close 400 stores.

BARNES AND NOBLE: Down 5.1% over the holidays. 'Will' close 100 stores.

HOT TOPIC: Same store sales down 11% in Nov., 10% in December. 'Will' close 200 stores.

DILLARD'S: Down 8% in December. 'Will' close 25 stores.

JC PENNY: Down 5% in 4th Qt. (but down 11% in middle of year). 'Will' close 25 stores.

STEINMART: Down 10%. 'Will' close 35 stores.

I noticed they don't even mention the weak sisters from last year, such as Borders or Blockbuster. I think they've already written them off...

The three most interesting stores to me, are Barnes and Noble, of course, Gamestop, and Hot Topic.

I doubt B & N are going anywhere, and by all accounts their Bend store does very well. But I think their glory expansion days are over, and it will be a rear guard action from now on.

Turns out, video games aren't actually doing so hot. Who knew? But talk about your cyclical business. But this is the kind of business that could suddenly rebound with a new technology system or popular game.

Hot Topic complained of "pirated" t-shirts. But you know what, live by the "hot" product, die by the "hot" product. I realized a long time ago that popularity comes and goes, and any store that bases it's business model on popularity will eventually go off a cliff. The real trick is to still have enough customers even when you're off the current 'want' lists and be patient enough for the pendulum to swing back.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

another smelly clumb of mashed flowers

When is a Sale a Sale? Something I've always wondered. According to Boston.com, in Mass. a item can be advertised as "On Sale" for 69% of the year....

**********

Malcolm Gladwell, (The Tipping Point, Blink), has an article in the New Yorker that asserts:

"The truly successful businessman"..."is anything but a risk-taker. He is a predator, and predators seek to incur the least risk possible while hunting. Would we so revere risk-taking if we realized that the people who are supposedly taking bold risks in the cause of entrepreneurship are actually doing no such thing?"
I hadn't been in business for long before I realized it was possible to make MUCH more money if you didn't have a conscience. I mean, it didn't even require that you do anything illegal, or ... in many cases...even something that most of the public would consider unethical. You just had to ignore that little voice that said it was "Unfair."

Which I couldn't do.

I've seen a couple of people make big money, and in both cases they did things that I would charitably call "leverage" and "playing the angles."

Whatever. I hope they enjoy their ill gotten gains.

*********

From Yahoo.finance:

Within the Borders superstore segment, total sales for the period were $649.2 million, a 14.7% decrease from a year ago. Comparable store sales at Borders superstores declined 14.6%.
That's just brutal.

**********

I probably ought to hold off commenting about the city council race until it's further along. But one thing I do worry about:

After throwing money away on ill-considered, pie-in-the-sky, bad development projects, that we'll compound the problem by throwing money away on 'good' , all for the social 'benefit' projects.

Just saying.

**********

About 20 years ago, I read a very 'authoritative' article that said video stores would be extinct in about 5 years because of 'streaming' video on demand.

In another 5 years, I think they'll be right!

From today's Oregonian: "The Wall Street Journal reported that Movie Gallery, parent of Hollywood Video, may be about to launch a major restructuring that could include another mass store closure.

It would be the second restructuring for Wilsonville-based Movie Gallery in three years. The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2007. "

**********

Weirdly enough, it looks like losing the Mass. Senate seat might pass the health bill faster. You know, if the House Democrats are panicked enough to accept the Senate bill as it is.

I'll believe when I see it.

Epic fail?

**********

My favorite bookstore blog, Inkwell, appears to have gone belly-up.

It seems like the more intensive a blog is, the more likely it is to dry up. Not counting what I would consider "professional" blogs, who actually make their living that way. But very few blogs seem to last all that long...

**********

Monday, January 18, 2010

Blogging ain't journalism.

Ain't no ain't in jurnalism.

But...I've noticed over my period of blogging, that there are similarities -- at least, enough to get a few insights about the news.

1.) Assertions take on a life of their own. If unchallenged.... and how often are they challenged?

2.) Background checking is probably pretty rare. The news comes fast and furious, and who has time to check every fact?

3.) Context is generally non- existent, especially with politics. Therefore, very few people's feet are held to the fire. Politicians are such hypocrites because they can get away with it. Make an assertion, assume no one will check it, change your mind later on, assume no one will catch it.

They have to do something outrageous to be investigated; and then the house tumbles down. But you have to almost believe that any politician's house will fall if thoroughly investigated.

Ironically, blogging, because of it's narrower focus, maybe could do the above jobs actually better than the news sites. However, we bloggers need the original material -- the fodder -- from journalists.

I suppose, what the media chooses to cover is probably the biggest barrier to truth.

But it's also in how they present it.

Check out any news article, and it has a slant or -- more kindly -- a point of view. If the overall slant is negative, then look for the statistics that might contradict the slant to be buried in the middle of the article. And if the slant is positive, look in the middle for negative statistics.

Or the emphasis they PUT on which SYLLABLE.

Which reminds me of my high school debating years (never guess I was a debate nerd, right?). One year in high school debate, I remember a statistic that we used as a joke. I mean, it was a serious statistic, but by putting the right spin on it, we could use it for both sides of the debate.

Something like. "Such a serious issue needs a healthy consensus, and a full 40% of the public SIMPLY WILL NOT ACCEPT this proposal."

On the other side, we might say something like, "60% of the public is in favor of this proposal."

In both cases, the stat was tossed out there, and the listener came away with was the negative or positive tone. (It was better than the above example, but you get the idea...)

Many blogs are becoming journalism, because they dig out their own information.

But most of the rest of us would have to be considered 'jurnalism'.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Suddenly, everyone is looking strange.

Apparently, like much of the country, I started watching Conan O'Brien again, just to watch him rip into Leno. (Who has always bored me.) It's like watching the class cut-up throwing caution to the wind and going after the BMOC. Heh.

But Conan's kind of strange, you know. Bless his weird little heart.

Also taping the Letterman monologue, for the same reason -- to watch him rip into Leno.
Dave has gotten really kind of creepy looking, you know? Ill fitting suits and pink glasses and all?

Speaking of weird looking.

Watched Bangkok Dangerous last night. Nick Cage has gotten very odd looking, lately, too. I happened to catch Red Rock West the other night, a great film noir, and kept thinking he wasn't your typical looking star, even then. Maybe Bruce Willis has the right idea. Shave your head and be done with it. It's very distracting to watch Cage, and Sting, and other aging stars and their receding hairlines and the various tricks they pull to hide it.

I seem to have developed a sudden taste for vintage movies. Watched the Friends of Eddie Coyle the other night; which has to have the biggest downer of a climax of any mainstream movie I've ever seen.
Robert Mitchum was great, but as Linda said when she walked in the room, "Is that Peter Lorre?" No vanity there.

I shouldn't speak, I suppose. I look in the mirror and see all that gray and wonder.....

A little oasis amidst the carnage.

An article in today's Bulletin calls for a "Bottom" to the "Housing numbers."

Well, thank god. At last.

A bottom.....again.....for the 14th time, or so.

If true, Bratton will only have been off by a couple of years. Hey, give the guy a break. It's an inexact science, this prognosticating.....

Actually, I should be fair.

Change of gears.

The headline only "Hint"s at the bottom, and even if "true" it will be a "slow turnaround." This from the CEO of the "region's Realtor association." Lots of caveats there.

Fair enough.

And if true...and we won't really know that until it's been underway for a few quarters-- I suppose there has to be a bottom sometime.

But over on Bend Economy Bulletin Board, someone has pointed out that there were 241 Notices of Foreclosure in the first 15 days of this month. Didn't the paper just recently predict that the NOD's were starting to slow? Turns out, that may have been seasonal, perhaps? The NOD's may have slowed down toward the end of the year, but it's hard to overlook that 82% increase in NOD's last year.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't a whole lot of adjustable rate mortgages still in the pipeline?

It's also a relatively easy matter to check the handy "Price Changes" charts on the BEBB and see that they are still 100% negative.

As the Calculated Risk blog has pointed out, now that the numbers have eased a bit in the central valley of California (which I always figure is about 2 years ahead of us) the "shadow" inventory is starting to make itself known. We have all suspected there was a large chunk of housing out there that maybe hasn't been forced to sell -- but WANTS to sell.

The 'Jack Elliot and Mrs." blog mentioned that Oregon was 11th in foreclosures per housing units nationwide. But we in Central Oregon must realize that while Bend is in Oregon, Oregon is not Bend. A fairer measurement for us would be Las Vegas (Nevada is #1) or CA or FL or AR zipcodes. We are a bubble within a larger bubble.

And finally, the number I probably pay the most attention to, and the number I think has the most effect on job creation, is the Central Oregon Housing Permits -- which were down 49% from 2008.

With both this statistic, and NOD's, it's important to point out that 2007 wasn't exactly the strongest year, either. So the "from peak" numbers would look much worse.

Well no ones denying any longer that we've had a couple of kicks to the chin, and we hit the ground with a concussion or two, and the 'recovery' will take time.

Meanwhile, my count of Downtown Openings and Closings is now 43 to 39. A little oasis amidst the carnage.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

2009 Year End Results.

Drumbeat......tah, da!!!!

Well, we were down about 6% for the year, if you count daily totals. Add that to the 14% we were down the year before, and we're down 20% from the peak year of 2007.

Not bad, really, especially since it happened slow enough to make adjustments. I expected and planned for up to a 35% drop, and feared up to a 50% drop (which I could have survived, but not pleasantly.) By working the first 9 months of the year alone, I more than made up the difference.

Books and Boardgames added up to 25% of the total sales, up from 18% the year previous, and 14% the year before that. Adding in card games, and the total goes up to 34%, a good solid part of the store.

Comics and graphic novels combined were roughly 50% of the business. Which is comfortably where I'd like to have it. (I'm uncomfortable with any single product line being more than half my business....)

Comics were down slightly, which considering I couldn't make reorders for about 2 months while my supplier changed warehouses, I'd have to say we broke even.

Magic sales were down.

Toys and sports card sales were down.

Looking at trends, we were up over 2008 in September, October, November and December, so I'd had to say we hit 'bottom' in August. I started hiring part-time help again around the same time, so I think I guessed right.


Longer term, I don't expect to be able to get back to previous levels for another 2 or 3 years, especially if you count what would have been normal growth.

All this fits with what I expected before the downturn. These things actually were somewhat predictable -- a 6 or 7 year curve from top to bottom and back up to top again. If not predictable, at least not totally unpredictable. Because I'd seen it before. A bubble pops, and business drops in half overnight.

But the extent of the downturn was only predictable if you were willing to look into the DARKNESS. And very few people seem to want to do that. Much talk of "positive thinking."

But you know what? I prefer the results of "reality thinking."

Like I said, it was at least possible to see this coming....but you had to be willing to stare into the abyss. Small business should always be willing to stare into the abyss, I think.

I say this as an incorrigible optimist.

I've already ramped up my buying to previous levels, because I take satisfaction in the quality of my inventory. If I can't do the job right, I'd almost rather not do it at all.

As I said yesterday, more on the inventory later.

Friday, January 15, 2010

There's limited time, space, money and energy.

There's only so much time and energy.

Comics and graphic novels are half my total business. So I spend hours and days every month looking at the catalogs and order forms, the online sites, trying to make sure I don't miss anything significant. That's my job.

With books and games and toys and such, I've had a more haphazard approach.

I started with my favorites with books, then recommendations, then cult books, then classics.

With games, I made sure I had to basics, Settlers and Carcassonne and Ticket to Ride, etc.

After that, it's been pretty much anything that rises to my attention.

With games, I check out boardgame.geek.com occasionally, though what I really need is to have a time machine to check what that site had six months ago. They're too advanced for what we're doing -- half the stuff in the top ten aren't even in the U.S.A. yet, much less available through my distributors. Still, it keeps me informed.

Sports cards, I've more or less come down to calling my distributor when I feel like it's time, or when I can afford it, or when I see too much empty space, and I ask the rep "What's new?"

With toys, I'm simply checking Diamonds site daily, and checking out the highlighted toys, and if they appeal to me, I'm ordering them.

So, like I said, I've had a less than rigorous method for ordering games, books, toys and cards.

I get order forms for books. I can check bestseller lists. Indeed, I've clipped out the Bulletin's bestseller list every week for a year. But I rarely refer to them. One, because I'm not a newest bestseller kind of store, and I don't much like trying to sell Stephen King's new book for 39.99, when it's selling at Target for less than 10.00. But still, I think I'd like to at least keep up.

I get order forms and catalogs for games, and really, it wouldn't take but a day or two a month to really check them out.

I get lots of promotional material for sports cards, which gets filed in the 'round' file system: (straight to the trash).

Anyway, I always thought that once I had my foundation inventory in place, that I would find the time and energy to really put some thought and planning into my ordering. And I'm starting to see a little blue sky there, now that my new employees have been more or less trained.

But now that it's come to the point, I'm starting to have second thoughts.

While I may have freed up a little time and energy, I still have finite space and money. So until that changes, I'm more or less constrained.

You know what? Waiting for an item to clamor for attention isn't a bad idea.

A vast sea of pop culture material out there. I can dive in and start chasing, or I can wait for something to leap out of above the mass and show it's shiny self and just make me want to grab it.

The store is in a very nice space, where the inventory is so full that I can choose to buy the very best stuff at slightly higher than immediate demand, and then reorder as needed. I can order the low to moderate demand stuff at exactly the immediate demand, or as close as I can get it, and let them sell out. And I can wait and order everything that is offered at an extra discount.

The extra discount to me is not much different than the low to moderate demand product that I pay full price. It is constantly arriving and turning over and keeping the store surprising and different, no only to my customers, to to myself. After all, I order the stuff I like or think will sell, up front. And part of the charm of ordering stuff that's discounted is that it is often stuff I didn't order; so I'm constantly educated outside my bias about what people want and don't want in the real world.

I'm astounded by the level of inventory in the store. More about that later.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Who you gonna believe?

This morning's Huffington Post,

DECEMBER RETAIL SALES DROP .3%, 2009 SALES SEE BIGGEST DROP IN 27 YEARS.

"The Commerce Department said Thursday that retail sales declined 0.3 percent in December compared with November, much weaker than the 0.5 percent rise that economists had been expecting. Excluding autos, sales dropped by 0.2 percent, also weaker than the 0.3 percent rise analyst had forecast.

For the year, sales fell 6.2 percent, the biggest decline on records that go back to 1992. The only other year that annual sales fell was in 2008, when they slipped by 0.5 percent."


A couple of things really caught me by surprise with this article.

1.) That sales were down at all. As is pointed out further down in the article,

"December drop in sales was a surprise given that the nation's big retailers had reported better-than-expected results last week, reflecting a surge of last-minute holiday shopping."

Well, there's that old bugaboo, "better than expected", which as I've tried to point out before are weasel words. If you don't expect much, it ain't hard to do better.

2.) If I'm reading this right, sales are down from November!!!

DOWN FROM NOVEMBER??

That is huge. Because December for most stores is supposed to be the biggest month of the year. For me, November is the second worst month of the year.

I'm still thinking this can't be right, that either this isn't be reported correctly or that I'm misunderstanding -- and that sales were down from last December. That would make more sense.

3.) What the hell is the use of all the reporting if they can't come even close to getting it right and are constantly contradicting themselves and revising themselves and who the hell knows cherry picking which stats to report and in what context?

4.) We've been up over last year every month since September, but I haven't exactly been crowing about it since last fall was the 90 pound weakling of all retail quarters since -- oh, 1937, or something. But if it's true that this December didn't beat last December for most stores then....well all news of the recession being over is entirely premature.



Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Leave them Cougs alone.

Hey, Wildlife guys, leave them cougs alone!

**********

Imagine your old boss getting a 'better' job, and you get promoted into the position. Imagine old boss failing miserably, and coming back and wanting YOUR job back.

No wonder everyone is turning on Leno.

I don't think he gets it.

**********

Finally saw Avatar yesterday.

Fun movie. Amazing graphics. Dances with Wolves crossed with Aliens crossed with Ferngully.

**********

Went looking for a big screen T.V. last night. I like the 65 incher, but it looks like they really want to funnel you toward the 55 incher. What's with that?

**********

The powers that be have managed to cancel most all the telly shows I like. I suppose I should thank them.

Big screen T.V., blue-ray and netflix, here I come!

**********

I wonder if I'm just kidding myself to think I get anywhere near an accurate assessment of Bend from reading Twitter, Bend blogs, and Rants and Raves....plus, you know, the Bulletin and the Source and KTVZ.com.

**********

Felt like a big cheese for a few moments yesterday. (The San Francisco house money....) Went into the bank branch, and were led toward a 'personal' banker who went "Oh! That's a bit of money!" when he checked our balance.

And then we dispersed it all to the relatives, and poof, it was gone. But there for a few hours, we could pretend....

**********

One more reason not to watch Fox, not that I needed one. Sorry, folks, I can't stand HER.

**********

Back to the big screen T.V. This is the first and only indulgence I've had in years. I'm being very slow and careful. I'd like to order from a local, but they don't really have what I want, I like what they have at Costgo, but I need someone to help me set up, I like what Best Buy might be able to do setting up, but don't like what they have.

I want the top of the line, without compromises...

Need to do more research.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

More budget planning.

My billings are scheduled in such a way that I know how much I've spent by the 10th of every month. So I know how much I have to earn the rest of the month.

The thing about my new tactic of trying for a 'working profit' -- paying all bills, personal and business, and all inventory, but not trying for 'extra' profit -- is that it is much easier to reach. At the same time, though, it's much more important that I not miss my goal.

Making 'extra' profit -- savings and retirement -- at least insulated me from down months, in that the extra often became what kept me from losing money.

Still, the reasoning behind removing this buffer is that I am able to stock the store better, with the result -- hopefully -- of more often having the item in stock, and -- hopefully -- making more sales.

I'm gambling, in a sense, that by spending that last 10%, that I can increase sales by at least 10% -- or maybe even more.

The downside of spending to the absolute level of estimates is that eventually -- inevitably -- I'll get it wrong. It pushes, pushes, pushes sales. But any slack, and I overshoot. I did this for most of the boom, and then would make up for it during the busy months. So it was pushing the boundaries as much as possible, and then having to catch up when I miscalculate.

This is a growth strategy, not a consolidation strategy.

I guess I'm feeling more confident in my projections, and the bigger I can grow my sales the more margin I can squeeze over the long run. A consolidation strategy is fine during emergencies, but you don't want to stick to them for too long, or you'll get old and stale.

I'm going to try this tactic for a quarter or two, and if it doesn't work, then I'll go back to previous methods.

Why take the risk?

First of all, if one has sufficient money in the bank, it isn't a risk to the business, only to the cash flow. You can adjust. Only if you continue to make bad estimates or continue to ignore bad results, does this become a risk.

Secondly, I don't think you can run a vibrant business without risk. Sure you might be able to eke out a business for a number of years, but it'll show. We've all been in stores that seem like that haven't done anything risky in years...

So I'm back to the process of pitting my judgment against the world. And the more I get it right, the more reward there will be. The risk/reward ratio works both ways. While I often warn that reaching for huge returns by taking huge risks is a recipe for disaster, I could also make the case that not taking any risk would result in not making any reward.

Monday, January 11, 2010

This and that and this....

I've probably got this whole stock contrarian thing down wrong. But I don't see the issue as there being more bulls than bears, but that everyone DOUBTS the wisdom of such a thing. As long as there is always someone pointing this out, as long as there are articles doubting, I think we're still in the contrarian phase.

After I wrote the above, I found the following on Huffington Post.

STOCKS SURGE -- AND MAIN STREET REALLY DOESN'T BELIEVE THIS RALLY.

"After being key players in bull runs of the past, small-time investors have not only stopped buying, they're selling. The question for the new year: If the man on the street doesn't jump back in, will stocks continue to defy gravity?

So far, the market's comeback is almost entirely due to buying by professional investors at hedge funds, pension funds, banks and other institutions.

"We've never seen this before – such a huge rally, and the little guy is out,"

**********

This: Anyone notice the Kohl's job seekers were being offered; "part-time cashiers, merchandise stockers, sales associates, customer service representatives, truck unloaders and others." ?

"....part-time"

"...part-time" everything?

**********

Advice on windfalls. Did my research, and everyone advised waiting 6 months before making any decisions.

Well, guess what? You CAN'T do anything for six months, even if you wanted to. It takes months and months of back and forth to get it all ironed out, and this was for a 'trust' situation, instead of 'probate.' We sold Lois's house in a Weekend (well, it took a couple of months to prepare for the big opening day...) but the paperwork is going to take a month, minimum.

Just saying....

Good thing, though. There was a roller-coaster of emotion and thinking and questioning at first, but that's all settled down now. Ultimately, not much change. Just a sort of security in the background we didn't have before.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Pick up the slack, people..

There for awhile, this fall, I actually had to scramble to come up with blog posts. I don't know why I want to have an entry everyday, it's just pride, somehow.

Some days I seem to have 10 or 15 things I want to say, and some day's I'm struggling for anything to say.

But since the holidays, I've been trying not to write TOO much.

I really feel abandoned, somehow, because BendBubble2 quit. And it seems to me that he quit far too soon.

This mornings business article on how the commercial real estate bubble is going to affect 'small' banks, it but an example of how they whole bubble thing isn't over, not even halfway over.

I'm been ringing the alarms for CRE from the very beginning, because as crazy as all the house-building in in Bend was, I couldn't help notice, as a retailer, how crazy the commercial part was, too. Maybe more so.

There is just so much yet to play out, and little old me can't be the only one commenting on it, dammit!

I can't do the in-depth rant that Paul-doh used to do every couple of weeks. But I can open the door to discussion. I know, I know....you've got outrage fatigue. But don't let the bastards win!

Pick up the slack, folks.

Downtown Openings and Closings, Update.

I added the gallery profiled in the latest Source, even though it's a second story walk-up and is in a space that probably normally would be office space.

And, I decided to add the restaurant beneath the new Oxford Hotel; with a couple of asterisks because it's debatable if it's a separate business from the parent.

Really, this is an excuse to talk about the new Oxford.

Fabulous looking.

Oh, that signs looks so damn classy when I look down the street at night.

I don't know about anyone elses definition of an 'anchor' on the street, but it seems to me to lock in solid the vibrancy of Minnesota Ave. Having spent most of my career in the orphan red-headed buck-toothed stepchild part of downtown, it's exciting to see. And pure luck that I'm in the middle of it.

I'm hoping that the kind of people who would choose a boutique hotel will be in intrigued by my funky, quirky mix. I'm sure they can't be all that excited by the Gap. So my kind of idiosyncratic business may be exactly what they're looking for.

I can hope.

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails



BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Ali Baba's Cave.

I visited Barnes and Nobles the other morning with Linda, (she needed a day calendar).

This is going to sound strange coming from a independent bookstore owner, but -- Why do we even bother? Why does anyone else even open a bookstore? Barnes and Nobles is the bee's knees, it's the cat's pajamas.

It is so jammed back with goodies.

I love books. How can I not love Barnes and Nobles? It's like Ali Baba's Cave in there....

The bastards.

I started seeing book after book I'd like to have in my store. I started to track down Linda to ask for paper and pen, then my shoulders sagged in defeat. I put my blinders on.

I hates them. I hates them I do.

How can anyone compete?

And yet....compete we do.

Thank goodness for a small selection of really good books, and readers who recognize and appreciate a quirky but quality selection, and a good foot traffic location, and the impulse buying of the readers, and an incipient rebellion against the 'big boxness' of it all, and the need to patronize a place that is 'human' sized and has a human behind the counter.

And, our sales of books were up 16% this Christmas, and Barnes and Nobles sales were down 5%.

I should probably point out that books are very much a sideline for us, becoming more significant with every passing month. But I wouldn't presume to talk for all independent booksellers...

Barnes and Nobles is going to bear the brunt of the online and e-book thing, the Amazon thing, the discount and pirate thing, and the mass market competition thing. Borders is just a harbinger of things to come. (Borders is probably on it's last legs.)

All that space and prime locations and ubiquitousness and huge inventories? Turns out it costs quite a bit of money, and the money comes from borrowing, which is just fine as long as you're growing and constantly opening new locations.

Stumble even a little bit, and Barnes and Nobles will turn into Borders....

Ironically, most of the independent bookstores have faced these issues for years, and have adjusted.

What's fair for the goose, is fair for the gander.

Friday, January 8, 2010

A smelly clump of mashed flowers and dried fruit.

I have clear sinuses for the first time in years.

I broke my nose skiing when I was 19 years old, and I believe I've had a low grade infection ever since.

I got two flu shots this last week, and the nurse told me my immune system would kick into overdrive.

Amazing to be able to breath out of both nostrils. I doubt it's enough to kill the bug completely -- and I've never had a severe regime of antibiotics; I'd rather save those for when I REALLY need them, thank you.

**********

Thing I've come to understand about California transplants, is that because they come from a place that has had it so much worse than Bend, that they therefore think they understand Bend.

No. Usually they don't get the isolation part, and they don't fully understand the population and seasonality of Bend. But they say they do.

Because Bend is smaller, they somehow think the problem is smaller.

For Commercial Real Estate, they think because California has so much more commercial real estate, that I must be joking to think that Bend has an even bigger CRE bubble.

They don't get the proportionality part. The difference in income. The 'island' nature of the
Bend economy. The glass ceiling of there being just so many people. If your business plan doesn't work here, there isnt an overflow from the next town over, or from the interstate, that can bail you out; no matter how good a job you do, you can't pull customers out of sagebrush high desert and pine forests.

But I've often wanted to say; "Have you ever considered that, after enduring a huge drop in housing and commercial real estate, that you are moving to an area that is JUST BEGINNING the same process?

**********

Huffington Post is reporting that 1 out of 5 men are unemployed.

Linda and I was just talking about that; it seems like people our age -- 50ish -- if they lose their job, simply CAN'T find another job. Too far from retirement.

And we feel lucky to own our own businesses, and have our fate in our own hands....

**********

Zine update. I had two people coming in to buy Rachel Lee-Carman's zines, which is a pretty good result considering Pegasus wasn't the primary or even the secondary focus of the article...

**********

'New' Coke. My immediate reaction, "What the f$%k is wrong with the old coke?"

Warner Brothers merging with AOL. My immediate reaction after hearing the news conference about the merger. "What the f$%k did they just say?"

Jay Leno on primetime. "Who the f^#K would want to watch Leno five nights a week on primetime?"

**********

Downtown Openings and Closings, Update.

Nothing new to report on the list. I was a little excited to see a Downtowner's announcement of 8 new businesses, but when I read the list, I'd already covered them. As I've said before, I really only count business's I consider retail, including restaurants. I'm not including soft services, such as ad agencies.

Anyway, Chuck Arnold of the Downtowners came in to tell me I'd been inaccurate with my "less than 10%" vacancy quote. This was a figure that had been mentioned in an article about downtown Lake Oswego, and my offhand comment was to 'quess' that Bend was similar. Chuck informed me that it was more like 5%, but then again, Chuck has access to the actual vacancy rate, I don't.

I told him

1.) Well, 5% is less than 10%.

2.) I was responding to the article about Lake Owego's downtown.

3.) Most importantly, I'd be more than willing, happy in fact, thrilled....if he would pick up the phone next time and tell me the more accurate info. And that I'd be glad to correct any information that is incorrect immediately.

I'm bringing this up, because there is another article in the paper today about downtown filling up (nicely), that mentions this list.

And to reinforce again, that it is meant neither to tear down, or cheerlead downtown. It's meant to be objective, because I'm a great believer than information is useful in it's own right. That you never know when information will be useful.

After all, I'm pretty sure that if you asked the average citizen of Bend whether more businesses have opened or closed, that without this list they'd guess closed.

I've always maintained that free and open information is more positive than negative, and wished that other retailers could see their way to being less secretive. But my theory is, the same personality that would open a business -- a riverboat gambler -- is the same personality who holds his cards close to his chest.



NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails



BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
**Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
**Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)**
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
**Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
**King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
**Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Thursday, January 7, 2010

What? It was a great decision until it went BAD!

Ho, hum. Another bank in trouble.

BULLETIN, 1/7/10.

High Desert Bank gets a "cease and desist" order, which "requires the bank to temporarily cease making any new commercial real estate...."

Right, O.

I continue reading.

The usual -- this "sounds a lot worse than it is..." from management. Check.

The bank is "...no danger of failing and remains 'well-capitalized' by regulatory standards."

Sure...that's why they sent you a "cease and desist" order.

No, says management, it's because the "...regulators are deathly afraid of this market and the commercial real estate market, and it's just got them extremely concerned...."

Gee, I wonder why? Cause, you know, nothing has happened lately to cause concern....

So I'm to believe the regulators are a bunch of panicked ninnies, and that we're just fine, move along, nothing to see here?

Except I have the opposite suspicion. Here's what I think is happening with regional banks:

My guess is that they're rolling up bad banks little by little so as to NOT cause a panic. That if they were closing the banks by the old standards, there would be a blood bath.

Anyway, the defense by management so far is what we've heard before from other local banks. All this is to be expected.

Then there is the next comment by management:

"Banks have had some problem loans and I'm not immune to that. I don't think we made poor decisions; they were very good decisions when we made the loans."

Whoa, Nelly. Let me repeat that priceless gem.

"I DON'T THINK WE MADE POOR DECISIONS; THEY WERE VERY GOOD DECISIONS WHEN WE MADE THE LOANS."

For god's sake! They were lousy decisions, as time and experience has confirmed. You're like the guy falling off the hundred story building that is asked at the fiftieth floor how it's going. "Everything's great so far!"

Here's what I'd do if I was managing one of these problem banks. I'd fess up, and tell everyone that I'm doing everything I can to correct the problem. Just that.

Because no one is going to believe you when you say, "We're just fine."

And no one is going to give you much credit for good judgment when you defend very poor decisions, by saying they weren't poor decisions at the time. Every decision that ends poorly was a 'bad' decision by definition. You aren't a politician hoping the public forgets what you said and did a couple years ago. You are a financial institution, and your financial decisions have consequences to you and your shareholders.

Your job as a banker is to manage risk. If you get the risk/reward ratio wrong, you get a "cease and desist" order.

Fess up.

I fear for this economy if -- when this is all over -- all the banks and thrifts and retail stores and politicians and economic professors and stock brokers attribute it all to Bad Luck and Bad Timing and Mysterious Forces and Who Could Have Known? and

"I DON'T THINK WE MADE BAD DECISIONS; THEY WERE VERY GOOD DECISIONS WHEN WE MADE THE LOANS."

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

December, 2009, results.

Overall, we were up 10% for the month of December, which means we've been over last year's sales in Sept., Oct., Nov. and December. I'd call that a trend.

Still, I'm leery of this year, and I'm only going to try to match last year's totals for the first half of 2010.

COMICS: Up 17%. Love them or hate them, the big 'Event' stories do bump up the sales, and it was nice to have DC Comics joining Marvel in the best-sellers. Black Lantern has been a phenomenon. I think I lost most of my significant customers in the first 6 months of the Great Recession.

DVD's: Since I'm more of less clearing these out -- not permanently, but just so I can reposition them-- sales are up and down. They were down about half this Christmas.

SPORTS CARDS: Up 20%. Cards are pretty fluky, these days. Depends on how many box buyers I have on any given month.

CARD GAMES: Down about 32%. This has been happening for awhile, indeed it happens every time I have a competitor who actually provides game space. In the past, I've discounted in response, but this time I'm not going to do that. It's still a significant sideline, and I'd rather earn proper profits on lower sales, than insufficient profits on higher sales and concentrate on those sidelines that are working.

GAMES: Boardgames did very well this Christmas, and it was nice to have a Christmas-like product for once. Summers and Christmas seem to be the time for boardgames.

BOOKS: Up 16%. Not record territory, but within striking distance.

TOYS: Almost exactly the same. Always the best month of the year. Duh.

GRAPHIC NOVELS: Down significantly. Watchmen was still selling last year, and manga is still sliding. Plus, I suspect a few more titles are being included in the book section that used to be included in the GN section.

Overall, I'm pleased. With Christmas, a few days can make all the difference.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

My Doctors are dropping like flies.

I had a couple hours off late yesterday afternoon, and decided to bop by my doctor's office and see if I could get a swine flu shot. I talk Linda into going with me.

We walk up to the medical clinic, and notice my doctor's name isn't on the list printed on the door. Uh, oh.

"Is Dr. So and So here?"

An almost sneer from the receptionists. "He was here for only a short time....please go to the other window."

Argghh.. This is like my fourth doctor in 6 years that I've lost through no fault of my own.

"Um....can my wife and I get a flu shot?" I say to the other receptionist, who's eyeballing me leerily.

"Only if you have an account with us...."

WTF? Linda and talk a moment, and decide I might as well get my shots.

The people in the office and even in the waiting room seem to be sniggering, and I realize I'm being a little too extroverted. All friendly-like, like I would be in my own store. I've discovered this manner works great when I'm the host, not so great when I'm the guest. This is an Office! There are sick people here! Tone it down!

I tone it down.

"I have an account. My name is Duncan McGeary...."

I start filling out a short form, and not 30 seconds later, I hear my name called.

"Which shot do you want, the regular or the swine flu?" the nurse asks, as she leads me back to the shot center.

"Both!"

I see a hitch in her stride.

"Well," she says, in a huff. "I have the regular flu ready to give you. I can give you a swine flue shot, later."

"That's fine," I've decided to be a Buddha in the face of medical office recalcitrance. These folk deal with sick people all day, and endless red tape -- I'd be grumpy too.

"You don't have diabetes or asthma or anything?"

"Nope! Healthy as a horse."

"Well, you really aren't in the 'at risk' group, you know."

Now I'm wondering what's going on. I thought they WANTED us to get flu shots. "This is the first time I've ever gotten a shot," I say. "I'm 57, I thought that I had to be slightly older to be immune."

"Well," she says grudgingly. "That's true....."

"Look, " I say. "I'll be glad to wait if you're short of doses...."

"No, no..." I can see her start to soften.

"I mean, I understood that there was an all clear signal on swine flue shots. I own a business, and can't afford to be gone for long, and I'm exposed to the public...but really, I'd be more than happy to wait."

"Well," she says, with a much cheerier tone. "I appreciate the offer. But it's O.K. But if I were you, I wouldn't get both shots at the same time."

"I'm a trooper," I say. (Inside I flinch -- why do doctor's offices always make me feel six years old again? I'm a big boy, I am!)

"Yes, but for some patients, their immune system kicks in, and they get minor flu like symptoms for a few hours."

"Right!" I say. "I'll come back tomorrow."

My guess is that they are so used to warding off unworthy swine flue seekers, that they haven't changed their tone, even though the need to ward off swiny unworthies is over.

Back in the office, Linda decides that she'll set up an appointment with one of the doctor's, since she hadn't been happy with her last visit, and we both choose the new doctor. For now. We can check up on the doctor list, later. One of the nurses comes out and recognizes Linda and they banter about books for awhile, and the office people soften toward both of us another few degrees.

All in all, an interesting experience. But I only have to see them once a year, for a check up, at least for now. And they are only a few short blocks from my house...

I went home, and boy did I have a reaction. Stuffy and coughing and I believe maybe a bit of a fever. Feel fine this morning. If that was just a minor dose of what I could've gotten, I'm glad to avoid it.

I'll bop by for my swine flue shot this morning.

Deschutes has lots of woods, and we aren't out of them yet.

I feel almost an obligation to take on the real estate issues, since nobody else seems to want to anymore. But I just don't know enough about the inner mechanics -- and though I read the economic blogs, I'm not obsessive about it.

For instance, I know there is much to say about the Bulletin's front page story: "Deschutes County Sees Drop in Notices of Default", but much of the contrary information was put out weeks and months ago on blogs like Calculated Risk, and it'd be a huge chore to try to dredge it up now.

I'll point out the most obvious -- the last quarter of 2009 was comparing to the last quarter of 2008, which was -- as I'll keep saying -- the 90 pound weakling of quarters.

Also, for a breathtaking shot of clarity and perspective, check out the chart of "notices of default." 221 in 2006; 3,507 in 2009.

My own analysis is that the drop is probably due more to delay and short-term boosts than to any underlying change. Hey, underwater homeowner, apply for a loan modification so we don't have to default on your lagging ass until later....

If Bend runs a year behind, we'll hear about defaults being lower elsewhere in the country first; and the experts quoted in the article are predicting an INCREASE in Notices of Default nationwide in 2010.

Suffice to say, I don't think Deschutes County is anywhere near out of the woods.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Back to the routine.

I think for now, I'm going to be happy with the return to routine, to the slower pace.

Obviously, not as much revenue, but that just means I should spend less. That I need spend less.

Doesn't mean I want to spend less. I see plenty of new books, for instance, I'd like to buy. But that's neverending. I'm almost there on new boardgames, but there are always new ones and I'd like never to sell out of the best-sellers, but the results at Christmas justify and new level of investment.

I've done my year end stats, and I'll detail them more later, but roughly speaking I've decided to shore up a couple of the categories that underperformed. Show a little faith. Get the inventory level higher. As long as I break even, I'm O.K. with that result.

I'm pretty stable right now in my categories -- maybe for the first time ever. I'm standing pat. I'm letting manga and anime fade for awhile, and selling them for half price until I've winnowed them down, but even those I'm going to start bringing in the best 10 of each category, eventually.

Sports cards were down, a bit. But I didn't support them as well as I had the year before, and that's easily corrected.

Generally speaking, I'm planning to keep adding to my new books and my new games, hold at comics and graphic novels and toys, try to shore up collector card games and sports cards, and let manga and anime slide for awhile. Used books are already filling every nook and cranny I can find.

Like I said, nicely routine.

Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled...bags.

Something kind of cool has happened over the last few years. I didn't even set out to do it. It was the customers' idea, in a way, or it just sort of became something everyone figured out. But I started getting bags of used bags from my regulars.

It started by my bringing used bags from home, probably, and the customers saw me doing it, and they decided to bring me theirs, and it sort of snowballed.

Really neat.

Actually shopping bags cost a bit more than people think. 2 or 3 cents a piece, but over time that can actually add up, I suppose.

Lots of people turn down bags, as well. I'll say something like, "Well, they already killed this plastic tree, so no further harm. "

Way to go, people. It's easy, and I've had maybe only two people in the last couple of years ask for a 'fresh' bag. Heh.

**********

Two things I always forget about employees, bless their pointy little hearts, is that they are terrible at change (coin) management. I swear, if the charge is 7.01 and the customer gives them 8.00, they'll give away .99 cents in change. I always forget to tell them, ask for the extra penny, the extra nickel, the extra dime. I hate to say it, but if you're getting down on change, let them walk away with 1%, you know? Make it Your Idea. Aren't I Nice?

The other thing that seems to happen with employees, is that bags get used up quicker. Partly, I use comic bags for comics whenever I can. About the same cost as a shopping bag, and the customer feels like they're getting something. And if the customer already has a bag, I ask if they want to put the item in that bag.

Of course, I could've just run out of bags earlier because it was Christmas.

As I said, bring me your used bags, or take them to Linda's store. I think probably most smaller stores would take them.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Bend is different. Right?

Interesting contrast in reporting about Hotel Lodging. Going from National -- to the Local -- to the Specific.

You have to ask yourself, why the differences?

Is this skewed reporting? --Not by the Bulletin, so much, as by the people they asked. Asking a hotel owner how he's doing, is probably a lot like asking a retailer how he's doing. You get a slanted answer. Note the words "random survey". Whereas, the statistics reported in the first instance would seem to be more objective.

Or is this just local difference? We really are different here? The rest of the country had it's worst week in half a century, but Bend did just fine. We got SNOW!!

Or is it just interpretation? Comparing to last year, for instance. It isn't hard to beat last year, folks. Last year was a 90 pound weakling. Or the famous weasel words: "better than projected." (Actually that's unfair. I often make the case that it isn't how you actually perform but how you expected to perform, as long as you adjusted your spending to take the lower projections into account.)

Or is this a case of Exception not Proving the Rule? So a few of the bigger resorts around here did well; while the rest suffered.

Or all of the above?

1.) First the National.

From Calculated Risk, 12/31/09:

HOTELS: WORST YEAR SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

In terms of the occupancy rate, 2009 was the worst year since the Great Depression (close to 55%). And last week was no exception with Smith Travel Research reporting the occupancy rate fell to 33.8 percent - the lowest weekly occupancy rate on record.



2.) Secondly, the Local. From the Bend Bulletin, 1/3/09. (I've weeded out the non-lodging reports....)

The holiday season comprising Christmas through New Year’s weekend was tough for some smaller hotels and motels, while vacationers filled some resorts and vacation homes to capacity.

Even though business was slow for some lodging properties, many owners said they were busier than during the same holiday period a year ago, according to a survey by The Bulletin of a random sample of hotel, resort and vacation rental owners about bookings for the week of Dec. 27 through this weekend. The results of the survey were across the board, mostly dependent on the size of the property.

Smaller hotels, such as the Tom Tom Motor Inn in Redmond, said business has been almost nonexistent.

“We get a few here and a few there. That’s about it,” said Owner Lilli Steele. “Nobody wants the little motels.”

Business at A Bend Cottage Experience, on the other hand, was booming. The company’s cottages have been booked at capacity since Dec. 20, said owner Lisa McDonald, and they’re booked through Monday.

“Business has been strong for the holidays,” McDonald said. “We think it’s going to be a little bit of a challenge to face January and February without the aid of the holidays, but we’re hopeful.”

McDonald said last winter, when many lodgers were suffering from a lack of vacationers, was a record period for A Bend Cottage Experience.

It’s a different story for the Bend Econo Lodge. General Manager Rocky Patel said business in November was down 50 percent from 2008.

“It’s slow,” he said. “I don’t think things are going to pick up for two or three years.”

***

Sunriver Resort Managing Director Tom O’Shea said last week that many people were making last-minute bookings for the New Year’s holiday weekend.

“We’re seeing a really nice uptick” over last winter, O’Shea said.

Scott Huntsman, president/CEO of Black Butte Ranch near Sisters, said bookings turned out better than he had projected. People continued making reservations through Thursday, Huntsman said, up until the weather turned.

“Things shaped up pretty well,” Huntsman said. “We’re pretty happy.”


3.) And finally to the specific. The Oxford Hotel missed the holidays for their opening.

Ouch.

I've been looking forward to them increasing foot traffic in downtown with wealthier tourist types...

Eh?

You know -- Hopefully. Better than last year. Up to my projections. We got snow!