Wow. These real estate people really think they are going to talk themselves out of this little problem they have with an overstock of pricey houses. Interesting.

They're feeling their oats. Just today, I heard they're going after the Nugget for being too negative. Applying intense pressure. I suppose David Fisher's demise just encouraged them.

What I know about any bubble I've ever seen is that you can't talk your way into keeping it inflated. You can fool a few individuals for a few months longer, but the fundamentals will eventually catch up.

Are we going to see a pick up this spring? Probably. But it will only mean something if it is sustained and it compares well to last year. It's a bit like whatt I hear every spring: Hey, business will pick up in the summer!

Of course it will. I expect it to. How strange that sales should pick up at Christmas from the fall doldrums. Who would've thunk it? But the important question is, will it compare favorably to last year and the year before?

It's at this point, in every bubble, that the vested interests will counsel positive messages. They will attempt to shout down the naysayers. Do a love bomb. Blame the messenger. Basically anything it takes.

I believe that they believe in their heart of hearts that if everyone is just positive, it will all work out. Tinker Bell will live.

But it won't work. Except on a few unwary individuals -- and the fact that they succeed with those latecomers is almost the worst thing yet.

Once I knew -- just knew, because I couldn't sell and I wasn't willing to buy -- sports cards were a bad 'investment', I backed away. Because at that point, every time I succeeded in convincing someone to buy it was a MORAL FAILURE. It didn't stop others from talking up the market for a while longer, but eventually it just compounded the problem. Every burned customer was lost.....forever.

We've been using the term 'bubble' all along, but I'm beginning to really see how the local market, in league with the local media, seems to feel they can keep the bubble inflated in Bend, even though it is collapsing just about everywhere else!

But even if they succeeded to their wildest dreams, I predict that all those unemployed contractors and real estate agents from outside the bubble will come flooding in. In other words, there is simply no way they can keep Bend afloat if the rest of the country isn't also inflating.

Like water running downhill, we'll drown in more and more sellers until it DOES bust?

Can't they see that?