A few days ago, I got my sport card industry trade publication, CARD TRADE. A pale, wispy shadow of its former steroidal self; all of 25 pages, thinner than a comic book. This thing used to be newspaper sized, a couple of hundred pages. All of them full of bullshit.

Around 1992, just as cards were reaching their 1.5 billion dollar peak, my own sales started going south. Everyone and their uncle were opening stores, and the mass market took a huge chunk of it away from me. Everyone seemed to be selling cards at cost or below. Everyone seemed to be selling tons of stars, but I couldn't figure out how they were getting them at a price that would allow them to sell so cheaply. Stupidly, I tried racing the competition to the bottom. I was bleeding red ink.

No one else would even admit there was something wrong. A couple of years later, when the market did start collapsing, I would open the CARD TRADE and it would be one booster article after another, one letter exhorting positive thinking after another. It was as if every letter was written by Norman Vincent Peale. No one thought there was problem, except a few negative fellows like me. Cards are great, this is just a small downturn, don't worry about it!

But what about the crooked dealers? I'd ask. How can this stuff be cheaper than cost? Why is the mass market getting it sooner, cheaper and better than us? Where is all this headed?

Silence. Nothing. Crickets chirping. And then the clamor would start up again. Every thing's great! We just need to stay positive!

But what about the ever increasing price of cards? The fact that we have to pay in advance for more cards than we really need, which results in the constant dumping at cards shows?

Silence. Tumbleweeds. And then the clamor would start up again. Wow, aren't we in a great industry? I just love doing this for the kids! Come and get them!

It was so strange that I just stood back and said to myself, I'm getting out of here.

I just went my own way, started getting out from under. I began charging full price, and sales fell off the table. But, strangely, I stopped losing money. I began diversifying, refocusing on comics.

The latest survey in the CARD TRADE has over half of the dealers (last report, under 1000 of them, from a peak of 15 thousand or so) reporting pessimistic views about the future of cards. Now, you have to understand, just about any retailer is on the optimistic side of things. For over half of the stores to be pessimistic, especially the not known for being analytical sports card dealers -- well, the industry is just pretty much finished.

They sold 230 million last year, so about one 5th of the peak. But that is extremely misleading. In 1992, probably 70% of the cards were being sold by card shops and 30% by the mass market. That has probably completely reversed.

In 1992, the average pack cost about 1.50 and had 12 cards.

Now the average pack costs about 5.00 and has 6 cards.

Interestingly, most of them haven't found the internet their savior. Shows have all but disappeared. Most of them are now buying from wholesalers, instead of direct. (I was the first full time dealer I know of to go this route.) Despite every one's idea of what cards are; even now, the majority of cards selling are THIS years; even now over 70% of cards sold by dealers are sold in a shop, not online.

I remember saying out loud to another dealer -- "Cards have no where to go but down, and they're never coming back." He laughed at me, but the last time I heard he was working at Walmart.

The thing I find most interesting -- the CARD TRADE has never really examined the effect of the mass market on sales. They are willing to point a finger at internet 'dumping'. One simple reason -- the manufacturers chose to pursue the mass market in favor of the small dealer; and guess who buys the advertising?

Imagine if you will, an industry that never had any thoughtful critics; never had any blogs like BB2 or the BEBB. Never had a contrary opinion that wasn't shouted down. Imagine if the real estate people were the only one's talking, and Cascade Business News was the only news outlet.

And then -- look at how that turned out. A dysfunctional, still not dealing with the root problems, lousy reputation, rock bottom industry.