I think there is going to be so much dust kicked up in the air this spring that no one will really know what's going on. Sometime in mid-fall, the dust will settle.
I expect a surge, because it's spring, because prices are finally starting to moderate. But we need more than a spring buying surge, we need an all-encompassing wave, a re-inflation of the bubble, which isn't going to happen because of the credit markets.
Meanwhile, all the builders are rushing to finish projects while there is even a glimmer of hope. Because of the way these developments are financed, some will be mothballed, but others will be finished because the money has already been spent.
The real estate insiders have been given their marching orders. Let no 'negative' article go unchallenged, but are doing themselves and their industry a disservice. There is already a huge rumble of dissatisfaction in areas of the country like California where this happened, and people caught the falling knives.
Besides, as I've said before, it's really the credit market that will dictate what happens. And the national media will fill the local news vacuum.
Plus there are pesky blogs like Bendbubble2; Paul-doh got over 600 remarks with his last entry, even if half of them were about blowjobs. And the Source had 2400 views of it's last Wandering Eye column about the subject. Still, the majority of people who are going to feel strongly enough to show up for the COTV show are going to be real estate people -- who's job depends on it. Me? I'm just curious and bemused and trying to get my own business positioned correctly.
The Bulletin is being so tin-eared and hamfisted about the subject, that I think it's going to backfire. Even today, they are trying to paint some rosey lips on a pretty ugly hog. Housing sales ticked up 2% last month -- from January. But it was still down 29% on the West coast from last year.
That's the dust they're throwing in your eye, hoping you won't realize that no matter how bad it gets, there are still going to be some months better than other months. This spring will, indeed, have more activity. Without a doubt.
Unfortunately, it's like a restaurant with 100 seating, getting a surge of 10 diners instead of 5. Won't be enough.
The stock market? That is a whole nother world, as far as I'm concerned. An alien world, with gibberish language and unknowable logic.
Unfortunately, just as the big real estate promotional campaigns were gearing up, Bear Stearns fell apart, and that was a pretty big blow to consumer confidence. Job losses are going to be an even bigger blow. Job losses, and downsizing, have been happening for awhile now. What we're seeing now is the Jack Lalanne delusion part where padded clothing can no longer hide the dreadful muscle loss.
So in the biggest cliche I can offer you -- pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. In reality, all he has to offer you is some lame of hot air balloon that will take off without you.
But if you truly believe, click your heels together three times.
"The Best Time to Buy in 20 Years. The Best Time to Buy in 20Years. The Best Time to Buy in 20 Years."
If it works, let me know. I've got this idea for a development.
5 days ago