Tuesday, March 11, 2008

This is going to sound terribly cynical -- who me? -- but I sometimes wonder if most small businesses are just churning money.

Let me try to give you example.

Middle management couple from Cali. sells nice house for 500k and moves to Bend, buying a slightly nicer house for 350k. They invest the 150k difference in a new business, and borrow another 150k from the bank.

Over a five year period, they pay back to the bank about 50k in principle and 100k in interest.

Meanwhile, hubby has found a job that pays much worse than his Cali job, but considerably better than their business. He takes over the home mortgage, and the wife pays for food and gas from the business.

After five years, they sell the business to a new couple from Cali for 200k. (50k down, and 150k in owner carried payments). Since they took out 10k a year from the business, and because their house has appreciated by 100k, they figure they came out O.K. They pay back the bank the remaining principle, (the bank is happy) and have 100k left. A net loss of 50k, and a house they can't sell for the appreciation without moving down or out.

By my calculations, they could've earned 6% interest on the 150k for 5 years, and avoided the 8.5% interest on the 150k they borrowed, gotten modest jobs, and come out much further ahead.

The second couple sold their 500k house in Cali for 450k, and bought a 400k house in Bend, because houses have gotten much more expensive, they actually took a step down in quality. They invest the 50k difference in the business, and borrow another 50k from the equity in their house. (They made a 10% downpayment, so that pretty much wipes out the equity, plus.) They manage to pull 15k a month out, of which half are payments to former owners and bank, but because that is one third more than the previous owners ever managed to do, they are taking out the muscle not the fat of the business and it quickly declines.

After five years, they've paid about half the 150k they owe the original owners, who have long ago put the experience behind them, and they've paid at least 50K in interest to the bank, but without making much headway on their principle. Their house has supposedly increased in value, but when they go to the bank for more equity, they are turned down.

They liquidate the business for 50k; both get low paying jobs that barely pay their home mortgage. Meanwhile, the original owners don't get their last 75k, but they got 30k in interest, so they figure it's a small lesson.

Pretty depressing, huh? And because it happens over a 10 year span, and because eveyone more or less loses just a little, it never really comes out to friends and family that all they did was churn money for the bank for 10 years.

Just like Vegas.

7 comments:

RDC said...

If you are talking people moving from the major population centers in California (San Diego, LA, San Francisco) even with Bend houses at their peak price you could still get more for the dollar there. For example San Diego, not the most expensive of the three, your 500,000 sold for 450,000 would be a basic 25 year old 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage, 1150 sq ft house. Such a house in San Diego would have peaks at 550,000-600,000 and is probably 400-450 today.

Duncan McGeary said...

Yeah, the numbers are pretty loose. But I hope they bear a passing resemblance to the 'process' I think is involved in churning.

For perspective, I paid 10k for my business 5k to owner, 5k to bank.

That's a ridiculous number, and it was 25 years ago, but it explains why I'm so boggled so much by what I see.

Anonymous said...

Before I get into SMALL biz, lets talk our last RE collapse 25 years ago, I saw stuff I owned COLLAPSE from $75 to $30k, -$45k loss, but I didn't sell, and it was up to $100k within three years following. My point here is a non-realized $50k loss.

Now lets jump to today with a home purchased at Shevlin, a Siberian STD crap-shack, 2005 for $750k, when this bubble is done its going to be $250k. Thats a $500k ENEMA, and most these people will walk, if they take the short-sale, and try to pay it back, or owe taxes, and they're say 'retired' they may never get back, their children may never go to college.

This NEW collapse is an entirely different animal in the scale of collapse. Its one thing to lose $50k another thing to lose $500k.

During the BOOM many calis sold their BAY shit for $1M, came to Bend, and bought $600k crap for cash, thus they're going to see 1/2 their life-savings gone, and MOST cuz of the cost living, or going to WALK at the loss.

Now to the subject of SMALL BIZ, duncan YOU MUST read "economics" by Paul Samuelson, written in the 1948, while he was an MIT encon professor. In that book there's a chapter on 'careers', and in that book he clearly shows and proves that a small business has the highest rate of failure, and at best ALL you can ever hope at BEST is minimum wage. Well dunc you have made it big-time. You have survived.

Anonymous said...

Is it really realistic to assume that people of means will move somewhere without a job, but also too young to retire? The people I know from California who moved to Oregon have jobs in which their "office" is their home -- in one case involving extensive travel, and in three cases working mainly over the internet and phone. 'Telecommuters' if you will.

I'm sure we all have anecdotes, but any hard numbers?

Duncan McGeary said...

"Is it really realistic to assume that people of means will move somewhere without a job, but also too young to retire?"

I have no hard evidence, but it seems like a whole lot of people have told me that.

Duncan McGeary said...

Another attempt at explaining it.

If you open a business that only requires one person to work it at a time, or even two persons, that is what I would call a Mom and Pop.

That is, the scale of service and selection and margins and all the rest are designed, in a sense, to support two people.

If you open a store that requires 5 people at a time, then that store is more or less designed in size and scale to support 5 people.

So what happens in Bend? A Mom and Pop dress shop opens, and the new owner automatically plops in a Manager and two part time employees. But the scale is designed to support two people, so you've just done that; what's left?

And so on.

There is no easy ride. Any store that has extra, will probably face competition in a very short time.

The margins are there to support the people who work it.

Now, if a store like that loses a few hundred a month over a five year span, then eventually there is a huge credit card bill or something.

It's in the economy of scale that this all turns around. Eventually, if a business gets big enough, and enough systems and machines and safeguards are instituted, they can hire a bunch of minimum wage part time employees, a harassed manager, a slave assistant manager, and make them all gogs that can be replaced easily, and they make money in the opposite manner, a small percentage per employee hour and it all just accumulates.

That's my theory.

Mom and Pop business will support mom and pop, not mom and pop and manager and two employees.

Duncan McGeary said...

There are all kinds of other benefits to economy of scale; cheaper product, cheaper borrowing money, cheaper just about everything. They give some of that extra back by not being as efficient as a small operation, perhaps, but overall the scale covers it.

A small business doesn't have a margin of inefficiency to give back.