Economic diversity in Bend? Sorry. I don't buy it.

From today's Bulletin: Economy's Diversity Seen as a Plus; Employment statistics show Deshutes not overly dependent on any one sector.

Well, that graph sure does make it look like we're balanced. And yet, I wonder if it isn't more like building another couple of decks on an ocean liner, and proclaiming that only the bottom levels actually float on the water.

My observation as a storekeeper is that most of the 'original' dollar in Bend comes from the tourist and hospitality industry; followed closely by the retirement community, which I'd have to say depends on the same amenities as tourism to be attractive.

All that retail and health and government services -- the same thing, perhaps separate categories from tourism, but still very dependent.

The thing I've always maintained is that we do have a inner core of Bendites, who have been submerged and overwhelmed by the tide of growth. But they work in small business, or ranches, or any number of moderately paying jobs. They're the people that many of these businesses downtown and Old Mill have ignored over the last half decade. They are the 'diversity' that the Bulletin is talking about. They are also not flush with funds, and are well aware of the phrase; Poverty with a View.

I'm not even going to go in to why I think this recession will be harder on Bend than other places; the housing bubble and the commercial bubble was BIGGER here, per capita, it went higher and has further to fall. Believe me, the affects of the bust aren't reflected in those graphs. There is so much 'financial services' and 'retail' and 'trade' that feeds off of the business of growth, that we're going to get hammered.

But, I for one, have never maintained that Bend was like Aspen. I have always thought there was a huge bulge of Bendites who will weather this storm because they live modestly. They weren't beneficiaries of the boom, nor will they be the victims. So in that sense, the Bulletin is right. Still, everyone is going to have to tighten their belt. Not so much because the recession is going to hammer tourism, but because the bubble bust is going to hammer everything else -- all those balanced portions of the graph.

I've always thought it was the over-inflated folk who thought they were in the next Aspen who were going to get killed when the Emperor ran fleeing naked, red faced and red buttcheeks, back to his castle.