Linda and I went on a long Sunday drive, and I came back with all kinds of thoughts about what we saw. More on that later.

When I got back, I bopped on over to the BB2; and ...what the hell?

it's the end of the world as we know it.

it's the end of the world as we know it.

it's the end of the world as we know it.

and i feel fine...

Suddenly, my little bit of news doesn't seem so important. Bear Stearns which was selling for 57 dollars a share on Thursday, was sold to J.P. Morgan for a measly 2 dollars a share, and only with Fed guarantees. The FED, meanwhile, apparently doesn't feel like it can even wait until it's regular meeting on Tuesday, and lowers the borrowing rate a quarter of a point, and says it will back 20 or so major banks with extra lending. Most analysts think the Fed will lower the rate another point.

Why does it worry me even more that all of this takes place on the Weekend? Tucked away while we all play. Why is there such a whiff of fear in the air? Heck, I was already alarmed earlier in the week when the mainstream pundits were suddenly more bearish than me.

I go to the mainstream news, and there's nothing. I go to U.S.A. Today, and they don't seem to be making much of it. So I think, whew, the BB2 bears are just roasting wienies.

But on a last second impulse, I go to CNBC, and they have the English morning financial shows on; and whoa.... the Asian markets took a tumble, and they're talking like this is real crisis.

I'm writing this the night before, and I'll be turning on the T.V. first thing in the morning. Chances are, it will be yet just another domino. There's even a good chance the stock market will go up; they always seem to respond to bail-out news, which any rational person would think was a negative, as something positive....at least for a day or two, while the ramifications sink in.

Or, I may turn on the T.V.; and it will be that REM song: it's the end of the world as we know it.

Thing is, I may have been very, very wrong about my predictions. I had presumed that Bend would have the worst of it; because we imbibed the koolaid more than anyone else, we built more and prices went up more here; because we were still in denial; because our commercial bubble is equally bad; because our industry became growth, instead of something we could fall back on. We just had farther to fall, I thought, with a lot less underneath to catch us. I believed it was ridiculous to think that Bend of all places would escape. But the rest of the world? Hey, it's a big place.

Frankly, I thought the national economy would, you know, have bit of downturn, harder in some places than others, but overall it would recover relatively swiftly, and eventually pull the bubble states like California and Florida and Arizona and parts of Oregon and Colorado, back up. We'd get hit later, and harder. But we'd get over it.

So I may have been wrong. The national economy seems poised on the edge of the crapper. And if that happens, all bets are off about Bend. We may really see the early '80's again. And believe me, we don't want to see the early '80's Bend again.

Sometimes I wish I would just listen to my bearish self, but I'm always thinking, yeah ...but....it ....probably.... won't.... happen. And then it does.

On our drive, we passed a subdivision in Prineville called, Longhorn Ridge. About 5 miles south of town, up into the hills where there was still permafrost and patches of snow. Looked like about 315 lots in phase one and an equal number in phase two. And there was a lonely, single, empty house near the entrance, and then nothing else in sight.

We drive in, and go left, and find 3 other houses, all for sale. Every single one of them. And yet, here's the really, really strange thing, almost every empty lot was 'sold'. We go back and try the other major main road, and here we find another 12 houses or so.

Every single house, but two, were for sale.

Every single house, but two, were empty.

One occupied house was for sale.

One occupied house wasn't.

Almost every single empty lot was 'sold.' Supposedly. I figure, they keep a couple of lots for sale, and then tell the prospective buyer, well, we do have access to these 'other' lots.....

But what really amazed me, was the desolation. All the houses were surrounded by half-frozen mud that clung to my shoes like cement. None of them look as though anyone had been near them in ages. Empty, lonely, McMansions. In the middle of nowhere. No mountain views. No view of the Reservoir. No lawns, no landscaping. Wells? Nice houses, though.

One house with a "Needs to Sell!" headline was 2200 sq. ft, and cost 325,000.00. The next house over, only two hundred feet bigger, was for 649,00.00 (it was nicer, with a nicer view, but still....)

They looked abandoned, almost.

I think I've found the outer reaches of the bubble pond, where the frogs are already dying for lack of liquidity.