Sunday, November 20, 2011

Quarterly graphs in the Bulletin.

Not a lot of surprises in the quarterly economic index that the Bulletin publishes. I think the economy is bumping along the bottom, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

The most important graph, to me, is the building permits, which plunged from a high of 412 in 2006 to the current 45. (Not much above the low of 11.)

This graph represents the false economy of the boom. And the drastic results. New building is where new money can be generated: in so many ways. Construction, furnishing, roofs, yards, etc. etc.

And it's dead in the water, and likely to remain so.

Meanwhile, the real economy of Bend is represented in the two tourism graphs: Airport activity and lodging tax, which are up from the bottom, and not that far down from the top.

This is our present and future economy.

Tourism. And all the minimum wages jobs it provides.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"the false economy of the boom"

Yes but I would argue that this is the "false economy of the bust". Resources today are being directed towards treasury bills (i.e., loaning to the US government) because they are perceived as the safest asset (evidence: extremely low T-bill yields -- investors are practially begging the gov't to take their money).

Meanwhile, investment in infrastructure, real estate, etc. is low by historical standards.

So your very low housing starts reflect the "false economy of the bust", that is, things have swung too far in the opposite direction.

The general public (dare I say the 99%?) are in a process of deleraging, and cutting back spending, while those with $$$ park them in govt. bonds.