Rolling recession.

Something I noticed about Bend again and again is that we seem to benefit from surges later than other places, and we seem to be affected by downturns later as well.

Even in this modern, interconnected world, I think that still holds true.

For those who are paying attention, it's a huge advantage. You can watch what's happening elsewhere and gear up in time to take advantage. Again and again, I would get word of a hot product, magic, or pogs, or whatever, and I'd go out and get some and set up supply chains and then watch the product sit there and gather dust for a few months. I'd call my wholesalers and complain; "Are you SURE this is Hot?" Don't worry, they'd say. Everywhere else it's selling out.

I remember getting pogs in a year early and just getting blank looks. At the beginning of the following summer, I at least started getting inquiries, so I set up a nice display and sold a few. And then, one day a few weeks after school started, I walked in the door and there was a huge line at the front of the pog display. Boom. We rode that wave for all it was worth.

But exactly six months before the boom ended, indeed at the very peak of sales in Bend, I started hearing how it was dying in San Fran and Seattle; three months later, just as a pog store was opening in the mall (I kid you not), I heard it was all but dead elsewhere.

It gave me the chance to start cutting back at the six month point, which took some real courage when sales were still so strong, and all but stop ordering at 3 months from the end.

I'd say the recession in Bend is about where pogs were then. Still enough plausible deniability to make you doubt yourself. Still some activity. That same pattern has held for just about everything. We get the benefits later, we drop later....and the downturns last longer.

Jesse Felder's local blog, My Back Pages, has printed a revealing map graph:

"PMI Group, one of the largest mortgage insurers in the nation, officially categorized Deschutes County as "highest risk" for future home price declines, along with areas such as South Florida, Southern California, Las Vegas and Phoenix."

The graph pretty much shows large swathes of Florida and California and Arizona in bright red.

And up north, a strange little square of red smack dab in the middle of Oregon.

It's what I've been trying to say all along. We are getting plenty of warning. It's a huge advantage to us -- to be able to read month after month of very dire happenings in Florida and California and to able to prepare for it. The national Housing Bubble Blog was replete with comments from realtor's and bankers, almost the exact same words we hear now from locals. It's like getting flu shot.

It can be hard at this time of year to stay focused. I'm trying to keep my eye on the dangers, and not get swayed by the strange lack of news or comment. Like the eye of the storm. It takes but a half an hour for me to spend so much money on my store that it will takes months to repay.

So I'm trying to stay patient and alert.

Paul-doh always seem to find enough material to write one of his rants, which is always refreshing to me. But even he got 'just' a little over a hundred comments last week (maybe twenty pertinent comments....)

But again, this strange quiet is familiar. It happens in every downturn, and there isn't any way around it. The truth, the real situation' won't come out for months, about the time when it doesn't matter anymore. In other words, you can't wait for confirmation, because by then it's too late.

So far, so good. I know what to do, I just have to do it.