How liberating. Until yesterday, I hadn't even realized I was feeling restrained.

I feel better now. When even Bilbobust thinks I'm too negative, I think I've finally positioned myself where I belong. I've always been more comfortable being a contrarian. Makes me nervous when too many people agree with me. And I feel silly being the voice of reason.

It did sort of clarify how I really believe. I'm tired of looking for reasons why the economy of Bend might not get as bad as my gut instinct tells me. Thank god for Publius and the following comment:

I think your sky-is-falling attitude is both overly pessimistic and inaccurate. From what I can see Bend is doing very well. Within a block of my house two homes are being built and another is being remodeled. The stores I shop at are busier this Spring than I've ever seen them. Traffic today, a mid-week weekday, was more congested than on a summer weekend. Where I work we're overwhelmed with business. Bend is booming and prospects are good.

Yes! That's the yin to my yang I've been looking for! I want that kind of disputation -- no I need that kind of disputation. I know the sentiment exists, because I run into it every day at my store. Not from the construction people, anymore, I have to say, but the average newcomer to Bend.

Weirdly enough, that's what tells me the opposite. As long as I hear the 'boom' talk, I know we still have a ways to go. It's when everyone is on board that we've finally busted that we will have hit bottom.

About 8 years ago, the card manufacturers started putting more and better cards in the 'hobby' boxes -- the 'retail' boxes at the mass market were still cheaper. So, I'd very carefully explain the difference to the customers; and I could see in their eyes that it just didn't compute. Customers wanted cheap, not nuance.

But over the last two years, even the most casual of card customers quickly nod their head in agreement. Enough of them had bought a box at Walmart and found it half empty to finally understand.

Like I said, I went back into sports cards because I perceived them to have finally hit bottom.

Because the excesses don't get sweated completely out of the system until then.

Same thing with the Bend economy. As long as the illusion exists that nothings really wrong nothing will really change.


Publius's comment got me to start wondering about finding a new way to explain why small businesses in Bend are due for a world of hurt.

In my own particular corner of the retail world, I have less small competition that I did 18 years ago. Indeed, I'm last man standing. Taking into account expenses and costs, I'm probably making about the same income per product line as I was 18 years ago -- I've just adapted by having twice as many product lines.

Yet there are four times more people here. How can that be?

One easy answer -- the mass market has more than filled the void in competition.

I keep wishing someone would do the research on this; but there was a Wall Street Journal or New York Times (I sure wish I had saved it) about 5 years ago that claimed Bend was the Second Most Over-retailed Town in America. (Las Vegas was first, and no doubt will ALWAYS be first.)

So I'm just going to lay this statement out there and let someone prove me wrong: Bend is the most over-retailed (normal) metro area in America.

So how do I explain all the small businesses all over town? I think the influx of boom money is responsible for almost all that, and if that boom money is drying up, so will a whole bunch of businesses. It's not the 'high-end' shops who are going to avoid this, either. In fact, I believe they'll be the first casualties.

Still, Publius, I'd love to know if you think that it is smart for the builders to be building two houses on your block. I'd love to know what businesses you think were busy. And what business you are involved in that was "overwhelmed."

Details, please.