Sunday, May 2, 2010

Buy Bend....

The Bulletin has been on a bit of an investigative tear lately, what with the John Doe OLCC guy and this morning with the "Buying Up Bend" article.

This is another one of those times when I wish the old bubblebloggers were still around to comment. I'm just not familiar enough with the financial details of real estate to dig too deep. Maybe some of youse guys can give your insights.

I'll give it a go.

First of all, despite the "Big-time Investors" label, I'm not sure that I feel $6 million is all that significant in the overall scheme of things. It would seem like chump change to "big-time" investors. A signifier, perhaps. An Omen. A Harbinger of future investment.

They mentioned several other "investors" of unbuilt subdivisions; so it does seem to be a trend.

I'm not sure that picking up distressed properties at such low prices signifies the overall bottom of the market; maybe the bottom of those properties; it's possible, I guess, that we may be near the bottom.

Then again, we can bump along the bottom for a long time....

When you look at the time-line, again it's not all that surprising: "Crowell said he expects to wait two to four years for real estate prices to reach values where he would want to sell."

That doesn't seem unreasonable. If they get a 20% increase in value over a four year period, that's not much of a return, but probably not a loss. A 50% upside increase in two to four years would be a great return.

But I remember pointing out that when you look at historic local housing price drops, (California, Texas) there seems to be about a 7 year time line between the beginning of the drop back up to square one. If you think the Great Recession started in fall of 2007, like I do, we're already 2 and a half years into the cycle. It would make sense that at least some properties have reached a price bottom by now.

Unlike some of the other bubblebloggers, I've always thought Bend would come back from this. I do buy into the concept that Bend is just too attractive to retiring baby boomers to sink into the eternal abyss.

What that signifies to the overall health of the economy is that we will continue to probably be a minimum wage retirement and resort community; but as those communities go, a pretty healthy one.

6 comments:

blackdog said...

"I do buy into the concept that Bend is just too attractive to retiring baby boomers to sink into the eternal abyss."

I question the premise that Bend will be super-attractive to retiring baby boomers. (It sure as hell isn't attractive to this one.) It's too isolated and, above all, too cold. Us geezers like to bask in the sun like lizards.

Bend will chiefly attract those who are looking for a relatively cheap place to retire and/or are heavily into the more vigorous forms of outdoor recreation (a small minority of geezers).

I agree it won't "sink into the eternal abyss," but real estate prices are going to revert to the historic norm and stay there for quite a few years. We'll never again see the frenzy of the 2005-2007 period. And that's a good thing.

BilboBend said...

Sheeet Dunc, how many times have BULL HO's ran this story "Buyers CUM to Buy Bend".

My model ain't changed much, as you know I have been blogging on this long before most even saw the bubble, and having lived here in the early 80's its of course all a complete fucking bore.

5/1 ARM Resets don't end until 2012, and toss in Bend Lag. So 2014, bottom in my mind for Bend may be 2012. Who cares, I'm not going to buy SHIT in Bend.

Short term OREO OBAMA will do magic for re-election, so there will be a dead-cat bounce. I predict by 2012 it will not matter who is in power. The GREAT-DEPRESSION II will last a long time at least until 2018. It's largely the baby-boomers have quit spending. All was predicted long ago. During the bubble many bought 2-4 homes, now there are no buyers, the kids sure as hell don't want to buy. Nor can they buy, nor can they save for a down payment. The home ownership racket will implode.

My model is that next year will be the time to sell, many new buyers with all the OREO re-election incentives, but post 2012 there will be darkness for years. Who cares there will always be someone at the BULL screaming that someone new to town is buying this shit.

My game is still to dump ALL next year during the re-election HYPE and get the fuck out of here forever. Been here 40 years too long.

Fuel prices will go ASTRO. The desert Isl we call Bend is fucked, BendFucked(tm). The Bend of 2004 was largely a creation of cheap fuel, something we'll never see again. The future for folks is to live in a place where you can grow your own food, and live off the land. That's why I have already moved most my base to SE Asia.

The civil war now in thailand is tiddly-winks compared to the civil war coming to the USA post 2012. Best time in 20 years to get out of dodge.

blackdog said...

"The future for folks is to live in a place where you can grow your own food, and live off the land. That's why I have already moved most my base to SE Asia."

That, and the cheap pussy.

BilboBend said...

The pussy ain't cheap HBM. Maybe you think it is, .. but it always costs you.

Maybe in Bend its very expensive, but who wants to fuck cougar pussy?

Sure you can fuck Ho's in SE-ASIA for $20 day, but you can't bring em home to mom.

A woman in Malay is every bit as expensive and high-maintenance as USA. The difference is that you can live like a king on $500/month. Once you find a good woman, you give her an allowance of say $300/month and let her live like a queen, and use the money as they wish. Sadly most will simply share the money with those in need, I say sad in jest.

Cheap? No, but better quality. The essential problem HBM, because I know you quit using your dick a long time ago. But the essential problem is western women go menopausal at 45. Where else can a white man go when in his 60's and get a '10' to love him real? A 30 year old beauty queen? Today with viagra I have friends who go strong into their 80's with 30 year old wives.

On the other hand we can all use our dicks as hat racks ( low angle for HBM ), ...

The thread was about the demise of Bend. The thing is HBM that SE-ASIA has a perpetual growing cycle, fruit&veges go off continually, you really can live off the land. So I eat mangoe, and sleep with beautiful women. Free? No. Cheap pussy? No

Good women don't want to be used for sex, and I don't want to live with a HO. I think that's why I like MALAY a good sunni woman can be stoned in this culture for adultery. An honest woman is good to fine, and they treat the man like a king.

So HBM is in a fit because someone might be getting some pussy. On the other hand not fucking debate that Bend is going the way of Burns forever.

Oh and did I mention that its 90F+ all year round and I can go running in my shorts every AM at 4. Fuck Bend. Warm weather, warm&wet pussy, and all the fruit you can eat. HBM you can have Bend.

Jeff said...

Good to see that you got out of that Thai jail, BilboBend.

Bend Economy Man said...

I haven't ever understood why Bend would be more attractive than other destinations for retirement.

If you are serious about the outdoor sports that the area has to offer, then Bend is the place to be.

Some people say that the Baby Boomers will be the most active retirees ever. I can believe that they might be some of the most deluded retirees ever if they retire somewhere for the skiing, rock climbing, windsurfing and so on. Golf and tennis maybe, but both of those sports are kind of conducive to warm weather.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but retirement is the period that begins when you stop working at age 60-70, and ends when you die. I don't see how that fits in with outdoor sports except for a few hard-core enthusiasts, which aren't enough to build an economy on.

Another possible market is those retirees that are rich enough to spend the warm months in Bend and the cold months somewhere else, but again, I don't think that this is a huge group of people.