Saturday, November 15, 2008

Too close to see, too far to care.

As I said a couple of days ago, the truly negative news is coming from big names now, mainstream names, big businesses that everyone know about. Only six months ago, these guys were still blowing smoke and it was only the fringe outsiders who were crying alarm.

And yet, if all you did was read the paper and watch the nightly news, you really wouldn't know.

It was interesting to me -- the big information junkie -- that only about 20k people in total visit the three biggest economic blogs in the country; Big Picture, Calculated Risk, and Mish's.

I go there every day, because these guys have been proven right again and again.

But 20k people in a country of over 300 million seems like a vanishingly small number.
After all, every one is affected by the economy.

Two patterns I see. The people who are too close to the situation to see clearly, and those that aren't affected on an every day basis and don't care to see.

Again, I've seen this over and over again on a Micro level.

A bubble gets out of control, and I begin to see the beginning of the end, I try to communicate that to others in the industry -- who all give me a shrug, or a "We're doing fine."

So I just prepare my own plans and get ready.

And a few years later, they're all gone and I'm still here.

I'm wondering if I'm seeing the same thing on a Macro level, nationwide. A lot of wishful thinking, for sure, but also just a real lack of awareness.

I understand, though. It's not like these things are always completely clearcut.

When to cut back, and how much to cut back, are very difficult decisions.

But the results of this last week have more or less convinced me, and I made the final moves to prepare. It's not so much that sales were bad -- they weren't good -- but the kind of feedback I was getting from customers and suppliers, and the overall pall in the air.

I had been holding off, taking a wait and see attitude, but since most of what I do now will affect early next year, I need to pull the trigger.

If I can get through the next year or two without incurring debt, I should be very healthy on the upside and ready to take advantage.


Quimby said...

Right on Dunc. Last year about this time, we all (bloggers/commenters) were predicting mass suffering and gnashing of teeth in a sort of dark humor/get-ready-for-it way.


BilboBend said...

Bend is still a better place to be than in a highly concentrated city.

Like Marge has said a dozen times in the past year. The US military is building US based teams all over the country. Everyone is planning on Martial Law in 2009.

I think Bend given its remote location, should fair well, and high fuel costs, and no freeway nearby.

Obama will prime the pump, but people only need to get used to living on $20k/yr or less, most of us already know how to do this.

Bend is just a little town in the middle of no where, that nobody ever heard of, lets hope it keeps that way.

The people who refuse to give up their big homes, and big cars, and big BURN-RATE, are going to be wailing at the wall.

Conspicuous wealth and consumption will complete disappear in the next year in Bend.

I think that dunc is in a good situation, less TV, less movies, more stay home and play backgammon, puzzles, or even scrabble. Less eating out.