And it's rational to include the irrational in your plans.
Did you folks read the story about Madras retail? Stores falling like flies, declines in sales of 50 and 70%.
Can't happen in Bend, right?
I think a 10% unemployment rate in Bend is more than possible. And I believe that -- for some stores, at least -- 50% declines in sales are also more than possible.
In fact, I think logical and rational.
It's the irrational and illogical I'm hoping for. That Bend will see an Obama surge, that the 'rich' will drive down from the West Hills and do all their Christmas shopping in downtown Bend. That tourists will feel they need a break from the bad news and come to Bend.
It could happen, couldn't it?
A couple of years ago, it was the other way around. Planning for the logical, thinking we'll hold our own or see a small decline. But also including the possibility of an 'irrational' collapse.
The national news is so much more dire than I could have ever known. It really does lend credence to the saying, what happens locally is happening nationally. I saw the local bubble, but didn't realize it was not only happening all over the U.S. but even in places like Ireland and Spain.
The very fact that they are throwing something like 5 to 7 trillion dollars at the problem just to plug some holes -- how big is the underlying problems that are creating those holes? Will those holes become a breach, and a burst dam?
The Rachel Maddow Show had a graph that showed that amount of money was more than; (if I can remember) all the money spend on the Marshall Plan, all the money spent on the Vietnam War, the Great Society, the Nasa programs, including the moon race, the New Deal, the Manhattan Project, oh, I don't know, JUST ABOUT EVERY BIG MONEY PROGRAM IN THE LAST 75 YEARS COMBINED!
Does that give you pause. Shivers?
It does me.
The irrational and illogical now look to be the normal.
1 week ago