I'm beginning to realize that there is a sort of reverse proportion to my warnings and results.
That is, when things were going well a couple of years ago, I could be much more dire in my predictions.
Then as things started to go down, I found myself backing off from talking about it. I pick lighter subjects, or I tone down my negativity.
Part of it is that I don't want to browbeat the subject.
"It's going to get bad, my friends....what, you don't believe me? I tell you it going to be really really bad!
"Oh, you agree that its bad now, but you don't see that it's going to get even worse!
"O.K. It's worse.
"But now it's going to be really really horrible!"
That kind of dynamic.
I figure it's self-evident to some extent.
I do think we're looking at another couple of years of downturns, minimum. And I don't think I've said that. I still think, in general, people are underestimating the problem.
(Usual postscript...Pegasus is weathering the storm remarkably well, and my wife's store has barely felt it.)
4 days ago