Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Have I mentioned lately....?

I'm beginning to realize that there is a sort of reverse proportion to my warnings and results.

That is, when things were going well a couple of years ago, I could be much more dire in my predictions.

Then as things started to go down, I found myself backing off from talking about it. I pick lighter subjects, or I tone down my negativity.

Part of it is that I don't want to browbeat the subject.

"It's going to get bad, my friends....what, you don't believe me? I tell you it going to be really really bad!

"Oh, you agree that its bad now, but you don't see that it's going to get even worse!

"O.K. It's worse.

"But now it's going to be really really horrible!"

That kind of dynamic.

I figure it's self-evident to some extent.

And yet....

I do think we're looking at another couple of years of downturns, minimum. And I don't think I've said that. I still think, in general, people are underestimating the problem.

(Usual postscript...Pegasus is weathering the storm remarkably well, and my wife's store has barely felt it.)

1 comment:

BilboBend said...

Dearest Dunc,

It's only the fall of 2008, we know that resets for Home MTG's will continue to 2012.

Bend lag's two years from the rest of the country.

Well before the Bend housing market improves you'll see an uptick in business on the national level ( Tourism ). Unless the incompetent city council so demonizes and destroys what little charm remains of this town is destroyed.

It's not going to take many Suterra's, before Bend is synonymous with "Love Canal".

2012 is a long way to go, you haven't even seen the beginning of the great bend-bubble collapse.