Bigger does not give back to smaller.
I challenged BEM to give me some positives in the Bend economy. I'm writing this before he answered, but the only one I could come up with is that commercial rents might get lower.
At least in theory.
But I ain't counting on it. In fact, I expect an increase.
Never in 28 years have I had a rent decrease, good times or bad.
Nor have I had my interest rates on my cards lowered.
Or my bank fees lessened. My electric bill goes up no matter the economic conditions. My health insurance rises so much, that it's become a bad joke.
Lately, my shipping costs were getting so extreme, that I stopped 'direct shipping.'
Wait a minute. Oil has dropped from 200.00 back to under 50.00 a barrow. Should I expect my shipping to go back down?
Bigger doesn't seem to give back to smaller. Once the price hikes take place, they are never rescinded.
I recently decided to quit pre-ordering from a supplier I've used for 25 years. Up until recently, he had a flat 3.00 shipping charge. He raised that to 10.00.
Not much of an increase, except I could order one or two times a week at the 3.00 rate, order as little as 100.00 worth without feeling as though it was affecting my margins.
My only options that I can see are fairly passive aggressive; as the little guy I have very little power. So....I don't use my credit cards. (I know, I know. Good.)
I stop ordering as much or as often.
I try to find someone who hasn't decided to raise rates yet. My game wholesaler is likely to get more orders, because he has free shipping above a certain rate.
It may seem to make little sense. Higher rents? But if the landlord can get them, and he wants the 'going rate,' then who can argue?
From what I'm hearing, rents not only aren't going down, but are still going up. It would take several years of drastic downturn, I believe, to make a difference. I think wishing for that is like wishing for an amputation to cure a papercut.
I believe we are at the point in commercial rents that we were circa early 2007 for housing costs, when the bubble was bursting and housing was slowing, but people were still asking higher prices. Prices are going to be sticky for awhile yet, especially if the downtown locations keep being snapped up.
Not trying to sound bitter about this. It's the way of the world. Caveman kicks the dog, walks out the cave and gets kicked by the wooly mammoth.
2 days ago