Thursday, November 20, 2008

B.S Graph.

Want to know why our local government is having trouble with it's finances, and why it's likely to get worse?

Front page of the Bulletin, an Economic Graph forecasting income and employment. A sharp, solid line down, reflecting the REAL numbers of the last couple of years, and then.....at the bottom of that solid line, an immediate uptick. But these lines are dotted, because they are a guess. And, conveniently, the uptick begins immediately and goes straight up to previous levels.

Bullshit.

Come on.

What world are they living in?

This same thinking is embodied in the Bulletin local section, "No Bus Service Cuts -- Yet." Despite going to the voter's because the need was urgent, they have decided to keep funding the bus system out of general funds....why, because they think it will get better? Do they think there is any chance that the public will vote for a 'payroll' tax? Really?

10 comments:

Duncan McGeary said...

Maybe they're hoping the Obama infrastructure stimulas?

Not actually a bad idea.

Meanwhile, a payroll tax? WTF?

Any local tax, either sales or payroll, would require a whole new accounting and collections system, wouldn't it? Yet another government agency needing money?

How much of the tax increase would go toward monitoring the tax increase?

RDC said...

Duncan,

You did hit on a key point. According to a recent poll over 70% of the people believe that an Obama administration can "fix" the economy.

So what happens if after 6 months or so the economy is continuing to deteriorate? Keep in mind that the last time we have had anything other then a V shaped, short duration recession was 1980-82 (a double dip recession). So most people do not recall anything other then 2 quarter quick hit kind of issues, and this one is anything but a two quarter quick hit.

Though I do expect that the mass media will start putting the spin in the good direction, instead of the bad direction, starting in Feb.

BilboBend said...

Dunc,

Why in the HELL do you think they want the BUS SYSTEM, have you ever heard of METRO in PDX, all three county's, METRO is its own government, they have the INFAMOUS self-employment tax.

Why in the HELL do you think that BEND just made it a $500 fine for EVERYBODY in the city that had a biz at home or any kind of BIZ to register?

Don't you see this coming? I do, it will be BEND-AREA-METRO, that will be Jeff,Crook,Desch Co; and every farmer, cattle-man, will get clipped 1.5% of HIS GROSS even if he can't spell BUS.

Boy people around this area, just don't know what's coming.

Employment payroll tax is easy, as you as an employer already know, we have quarterly forms that MUST be filled out, and the State collects METRO & EUGENE taxes for the countys, BEND area will be the same.

The real trick is the self-employment tax, where everybody in the tri-county pays 1.5% of GROSS, as some businesses don't even make this much in profit, it means that many people go out of business, or MOVE from the area.

This is what the BUS thing is all about.

BilboBend said...

Nobody can 'fix' the economy, it will take a generation to purge the waste.

Since the 1980's the DEM's & PUG's have stole every cent that wasn't tied down.

Now what they'll do is privatize stuff like YOSEMITE in order to collect money, already this week BUSH has opened all of the MTN-WEST to shale-oil, ... its coming, total THATCHER style privatization of all the US-FOREST & BLM land.

Hell, yes the BULL&SORE will start slowly telling you we have no choice.

The OREO-OBOMB-EO he can't fix anything, it costs MONEY to fix stuff, and BUSH is going to be leaving the OREO this a negative balance sheet.

BilboBend said...

Dunc,

I'll say one other thing about today, as you might have missed it.

But today 'GM' of General Motors change their status to a 'bank holding company', per the WSJ today.

Now this means, that they now qualify for the $700B bail-out fund.

Imagine that you as a comic-book store owner, need only change your classification to 'bank holding company' and you too could live under the tree that drops golden fruit.

How long before JR-BURA ( BEND FRAUD ACCOUNTING ) classify's themselves as a 'bank holding company'?

Like I mentioned weeks ago when you folks were debating auto. Back in the 1980's ALL the auto's switched over to FINANCE as GM-ACCEPTANCE could only make 5% ROI on auto's, but over 20% ROI on credit-card debt, and thus what has happened to ALL US industry 25 years later is that today the ENTIRE US house of cards is collapsing.

Get with the program people classify yourself as a 'bank holding company' before its too late!!!

RDC said...

Uh, GMAC applied to be a bank holding company. That is the credit subsidary to GM, not GM itself.

BilboBend said...

GMAC applied to be a bank holding company. That is the credit subsidary to GM, not GM itself.

*

RDC ( BEBB ) normally I wouldn't respond, but hell I'm in a good mood.

For the past 25 years GMAC is how GM has been kept afloat.

For the past 25 years GM has been a ghost.

For the past 25 years GMAC has been making +20% ROI on GM's assets, while GM made a paltry 5% or less.

Today 'GMAC' is GM. Tomorrow 'GM' will be a 'bank holding company'.

Which means that tomorrow, GM can collect part of the $700B from Paulson.

Just like Bends JR-BURA, once GMAC gets the $$CASH$$ they can pass it on to GM as they wish. Just like JR-BURA can borrow on their BofA line-of-credit ( infrastructure ), and pass $$$CASH$$$ on to city general-fund, so they can make good on the city-managers $300k/yr salary, and the new city-attorney's $400k/yr salary.

Ford, GM, ... ALL US auto has been playing the 'credit' game for +25 Years, nobody made money building auto's as the ROI wasn't there.

The entire notion that BIG-US-AUTO makes car's or profits from such is largely a myth, a ghost.

Just like the stock market. Today GM is at levels NOT seen since the great depression. Why pray tell?? Because the ghost can no longer convince the living that it is alive.

Duncan McGeary said...

Bilbo I didn't post the last entry by you because there was one paragraph of personal attack among the otherwise good arguments.

If you take that out, I'll post it.

RDC said...

No doubt, just as GE's financing arm is one of the main reason for GE's success.

However, GMAC is not GM. It is a separate company, of which the main owner is GM (I seem to recall that they have sold a significant portion to others at sometime in the past) so while GMAC has had an impact on GM's balance sheet, if GMAC gets classified as a bank holding company, and gets access to the Tarp that access will be for GMAC's use and will not provide funds for the parent company.

RDC said...

Actually GM doesn't even own the majority of GMAC.

Cerberus purchased 51 percent of GMAC from GM in 2006 for $14.1 billion.