Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Housing shortage?

A comment from a reader:

"Duncan, I used to enjoy your blog and the Bend Bubble Blogs a long time ago. Am from the Willamitte Valley, and enjoyed watching the real estate discussion from afar.  Now I just saw this article in the Bend Bulletin and wondered if it can possibly be true.  It makes it sound like it's 2006 around there again!  Curious to know what you think.  Jeff. R."

The article was about the housing/rental shortage.

Well, as most readers of this blog know, my focus over the last few years has been on my writing career -- which I understand isn't as interesting to many readers.  But that's what I'm doing, and that's what the blog reflects.

I've mentioned lately that my store has finally gotten back to the sales levels it was at in 2007.  So that was a 7 year swing, which is what I predicted back then based on what I'd read about other booms and busts.

So is it possible?

I'm skeptical of anything related to housing/rental.  I tend to believe that the information is manipulated to a large extent. 

But if the housing/rental people haven't built anything in the last 7 or 8 years, I suppose it's possible.  (And just shows yet another sign of their boom and bust incompetence.)

I haven't waited the last 7 years for the economy to come back at my store.  I kept reinvesting, trying new product lines, and building my store.  Now I'm situated to take advantage.  In other words, I'm not short of material.

I tend to believe, though, that the shortage of affordable housing is more a factor of landlord's charging what the market will bear...and then some.  That's been my experience with all landlords -- either commercial or not -- that they will constantly push the outer boundaries of what they can get.  So whether there is an actual shortage driving up prices or whether they think they can pretend there is a shortage and get the higher rents, I'll leave that up to you to decide. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your perspective. JR