Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Catching up on the news.

Back from our trip to the coast, and working my way through 3 days of newspapers.

I was going to let the article about home sales "...climbing closer to pre-recession levels..." pass, except this caught my eye: "Home sale s in Sisters have gone beyond recovery..."

"...beyond recovery..." ?!

Let's look at the money: Those 15 houses in 2007 sold for a 415,000 average. The 26 houses sold for 173,000. So roughly 60% more houses sold, at an average of roughly 60% less. Some recovery.

As a parallel: I'm going to give away more free comics on Free Comic Book Day than I sold in the previous month.

Of course, I won't make any money.

Chances are, those house sold for cost of goods, or less. No one made money.


Bend has possibly racked up another 12 million in debt. (Court judgment in favor of Juniper Utility.)

We had better hope there is a "recovery" soon.


Here's some stats I found over on the Bend Economy Bulletin Board which seem more telling:

Single-family new house construction building permits:

1996: 381 buildings, average cost: $114,400
1997: 563 buildings, average cost: $117,200
1998: 560 buildings, average cost: $142,300
1999: 824 buildings, average cost: $139,000
2000: 829 buildings, average cost: $137,200
2001: 944 buildings, average cost: $142,600
2002: 1195 buildings, average cost: $136,100
2003: 1156 buildings, average cost: $151,100
2004: 1663 buildings, average cost: $190,100
2005: 2050 buildings, average cost: $221,800
2006: 1517 buildings, average cost: $230,300
2007: 759 buildings, average cost: $224,200
2008: 276 buildings, average cost: $237,900
2009: 159 buildings, average cost: $228,300

It's the actual building of houses that creates jobs, and new revenue, not selling houses for a loss. I'll believe in a recovery when we have permits in the 400 range, or about 15 years ago....


The Bulletin seems to be having a full-court press this spring to convince us we're on the road to recovery.

There's a national article:

"Primed for Renovation" -- in Florida's "rubble." (Despite the upbeat tone, they just couldn't resist using the word "rubble" and "bubble" in the same article...)

Locally, I think the Bulletin just assigns the new-to-town reporters to the 'Upbeat' Beat. Probably because they aren't jaded by the reality of realty.

"Signs of Life."

Basically, the people quoted in the article seem to be saying, "Well, yeah. There isn't any evidence of a recovery, but it's coming! I can't tell you why, but it is on it's way!"

Yep, I see that body twitching.


Then again, kudo's for the Bulletin for telling us that 1 out of 5 residents are on food stamps in Central Oregon.

If you take the upbeat articles as real (which I don't, quite) then what has been revealed is that Central Oregon is split between those who have money and those who don't. Like everywhere else, but more so...


H. Bruce Miller said...

"Locally, I think the Bulletin just assigns the new-to-town reporters to the 'Upbeat' Beat. Probably because they aren't jaded by the reality of realty."

And the ones who see it like it is and tell it like it is don't stick around long.

"Jaded by the reality of realty" is good.

Duncan McGeary said...

I kind of liked the Upbeat beat, too. ;)