Thursday, February 21, 2008

Wow, the economy around here is going south even faster than I expected. With every turn of the screw, I just back away another couple of feet, quietly drop another purchasing order I was going to make, buy a ream of paper instead of a case, and so on.

Not sure anyone is going to totally escape the bear. But if I get a nice little head start, maybe the bear will catch the other guys first. By the time he gets to me, maybe I'll have found some shelter or something. Maybe the cavalry will be on the way....

The lady cutting my hair yesterday would have none of it.

1.) there was no real problem with the economy (this after telling me that some of her builder clients were complaining.)

2.) it didn't matter to her. (I pointed out a several ways it may impact on her, but she just kept shaking her head.)

3.) and why was I stomping on people's dreams?

Hey, I'm all for taking a risk, of following your dream. But there's a difference between the calculated risk of playing blackjack with some knowledge and experience, or taking a wild-ass spin on the roulette wheel. Hell, I can even understand betting on red or black; (scary risky, but I can see the allure) -- but some of these new businesses are basically putting their entire bankroll on one number of the wheel and hoping to hit.

So? She asks.

I have a friend who mortgaged his house to start a business that had no chance, I say. He lost the business and the house.

That was his choice, she says.

Well, yeah, of course. But it seems kind of a brutal way to find out the true risk.

Linda pointed out that we had people tell us, we had no chance, we had no business, and here we are 28 years later and they're all gone.

But I had worked for Pegasus for 4 years; I did my homework before buying. My estimates turned out to be right on. A gamble, yes, but a calculated gamble.

Bend is completely overbuilt, and I can't understand why my barber lady couldn't understand that. I felt my voice rising, and myself going into an anti-growth rant, which was weird, because while these blogs may sound like a rant, they are at least measured and (driving bilbobuster crazy) even-handed. I was surprised by my own response and the resentment I felt.

Oh, well. What's going to happen is going to happen. I don't have the power to 'stomp on people's dreams', thank goodness.

12 comments:

BilboBend said...

The real issue is that ALL of Bend is a Fraud.

Every minutia of city hall, of city planning, of RE Commercial or Residential is a fraud.

This is why Bend will fall so hard and so fast. Because there is NOTHING behind Bend.

Like Mike Hollern say's "A Town of non-real people, with non-real children, and non-real jobs".

I like to focus on Mike Hollern, cuz he owns this town, I don't really care what Bruckner says, or Bob Woodward, or Linda Frost, or any old politician. I care about what the owners of this town are doing to the town.

One thing is clear that 2002+ and later the old guard so out Bend to organized criminals, and sat back and enjoyed the cash flow. ONLY now that contract sales are defaulting and ALL this RE is coming back to the good old boyz, only now is the old liberal guard coming out and saying something.

FUCK the SORE & BULL, FUCK COSTA, FUCK HBM, & FUCK AARON SWITZER. THIS TOWN IS FUCKED, but all these good old boyz made money for a few years, by being participants in FRAUD.

RoseCitySnark said...

Duncan,

Slightly OT but related to dreams and recessions and comics stores: do you know the proprietor(s) of Cosmic Monkey Comics in Portland? They are a short walk from my house. They are on Sandy Blvd., a main thoroughfare, but further east than the main shopping strip in the Hollywood District. It seems to be newer, and I wish them well, but I wonder if the location and recession will make it difficult for them. I will keep my eye on it as a bellwether of the local economy here.

Eric

Duncan McGeary said...

I'm pretty isolated over here. I know the other stores that are on the Comic Book Industry Alliance board from across the country better.

Linda almost always nixes visits to comic shops on vacation.

BilboBend said...

BEND RAN ON COCAINE all during the BOOM, and MS-FUCKER knows this, and she is a realtor who speaks the truth.

*
http://angrybendbitch.blogspot.com/2008/02/bend-its-sad-that-rich-brought-their.html
*

Dunc,

This is the primary reason why the SORE&BULL and all is-was silent, it wasn't so much about 'money' during the BEND-BUBBLE, as it was about drugs, pussy, and wine, ALL paid for by city-hall budget.

This crosses liberal/conservative boudnarys which is why ALL past liberal politicians were silent, because NOBODY wanted the party to end.

Duncan McGeary said...

bilbo,

You're starting to make sense.

Which really worries me.

BilboBend said...

Walmart isn't that stupid.

*

Yes, DUNCAN they ONLY represented WALMART in terms of BEING a STRAWMAN with a pretty face to get good deals, from good old boyz, ....

It's an old trick, very old, ...

MIKE HOLLERN did the same thing to sell the NWXC to city-hall, he paid millions for dog & pony shows at high-desert museum, brought in consultants and called it 'smart growth', hired nothing but good looking young people to pull it off.

Smart Growth came from "WISE USE", and is a major republican mechanism to over-ride anti-development.

This is why there are NO liberals in Bend, this is why all of your OLD GUARD are shit-eaters, like bob woodward, and bruckner, cuz they ate the 'smart growth' wine&dine hook line & sinker, cuz the folks that own this town lead them all around by a leash.

This is why the BULL&SORE are quiet, its always been this way in Oregon with PROGRESSIVES, give them pot, cocaine, pussy, good-wine, and let them run city-hall. They'll talk the talk, and deliver the RE to BOSS-HOGG, this is how HOMER-WILLIAMS has run PDX city hall forever, BEND is small potatoes compared to Salem or PDX.

DesertScape was bunch of progressives running a front for Walmart doing a little other things on the side, besides buying over-priced downtown BEND RE.

This is why I have a take NO prisoner attitude on BEND, there are NO innocents in BEND.

That said I despise the FOLKS that run the SORE & BULL the most, cuz they call themselves newspapers.

HBM GO FUCK YOURSELF. YOU & BOB WOODWARD could have never let this shit take place on your gaurd, but you went along with the party, cuz they invited you.

Bend Economy Man said...

It wasn't just local intellectuals like HBM and Bob Woodward that got co-opted. It was all of us. How many of us bit our tongues about growth when we saw Beck, Jack Johnson, Willie Nelson, Bob Dylan and the rest play at the amphitheater? How many of us thought "this new Bend ain't half bad" as we saw cute, single 20-something women in decent numbers for the first time in memory? How many of us sighed "FINALLY" when decent restaurants, coffee shops and bars started opening up in town?

2004-2005 will be remembered by many as the best of times in Bend. A time when it seemed like everyone in town, just by staying here or moving here, had made a smart move, and every day there was a new media story or anecdote about how fortunate we are. When house prices went up literally every day, and everyone who's anyone owned a house. When there was no doubt, NONE, in many people's minds that Bend's future would be only brighter and more upscale as time went by. When comparisons to super-elite resort areas like Aspen didn't seem farfetched, but inevitable.

The "hangover after the party" metaphor is overused but so apt. Everything and everyone looks different. I was a skeptic even during the boom but at least it was uplifting to see so many optimistic, self-assured people. The nice new buildings, cars, businesses and marketing materials looked so sleek and confident. Newly-platted housing developments crawling with hundreds of workers rushing to get houses to market exuded Progress and Hope. The new young people fresh from California and elsewhere were affluent-looking and attractive, slim and tan, outdoorsy yet worldly and educated, fashionably dressed and well-equipped for recreation.

But now the cute 22-year-old blondie is pale and overweight from a winter spent snowed in. The buildings and roads are covered in cinder dust. The unfinished housing developments and empty homes look dangerous, abandoned, haunted. You don't see a lot of 2007 and 2008 model cars. People look worried, not self-confident.

Duncan McGeary said...

Bem:

Great post.

Do you have a blog I've missed?

If not, you should.

Bend Economy Man said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Duncan McGeary said...

oh.

duh.

just shows how many messages I've posted, I've lost track....

Leitmotiv said...

I don't understand how you can get into an even somewhat subdued yet heated argument during a haircut! Must have been the worst haircut you ever received!

Duncan McGeary said...

I didn't set out to get a mohawk. But...you know, it not so bad!