It takes a brave man to climb out on that limb, put a noose around your neck, and jump because you're sure the rope will break. Looks to me like what Dana Brattan just did. So either he is a genius who can parse the numbers like no one else, or he made the most ridiculous prediction of his career.
But wouldn't it be great if he was right? Hey all you potential customers, you've just been assured the housing market is on the verge of a turnaround. The light is at the end of the tunnel. Our long national nightmare is over.
Please extract as much equity as possible and spend, spend, spend! Please buy an extra house or two! You only have 60 days...yeah, that's it, 60 days...to buy! It's the Best Time to Buy in 20 Years!
But these blogs aren't any fun if everyone just agrees. We need this guy from Forbes to tell us we're all wrong and the housing market not only hasn't declined, but is on the upswing:
"Don't buy it. For months now the debate has been over whether America will have a hard landing or soft landing, the answer hinging on how big 2007's housing disaster turns out to be. Well, there won't be any housing disaster. We won't have a landing at all, soft or hard. Right now the U.S. and global economies are both accelerating.
Did you know that housing sales are up in the last few months, not down, and that inventories are lower than six months ago? We're accelerating, not landing. This is true not just in housing but also pretty much across the board."
- Kenneth L. Fisher
(NOTE: It has been pointed out that this is from a YEAR ago. So...nevermind. Fools, then, him for saying it, and me for repeating it. Still, someone posted that with the intent of trying to convince people that everything is fine....)
I'm assuming this quote if for real, and not some made up piece that someone put onto the Bend Economy Bulletin Board. It seems to me that everything he says is contradicted by actual facts.
So there you have it. Two lone voices in the wilderness.
I know how they feel. I used to be there, from the other side.
Every bubble I've had come through my store started somewhere else, usually California and Washington, usually in the bigger cities like San Fran and Seattle; and they usually ended there also. That is, if you were paying attention, you could see it coming, and you could see it going.
It's one of the few marketing advantages to living in a backwater.
So....you for fun, go read couple of days worth of the national blog called, The Housing Bubble Blog. This isn't some crank, merely someone who takes clippings out of mainstream publications (like the Bulletin and the Oregonian) and strings them together.
Then come back and read Dan Bratton's comments. If you can withstand the whiplash, remember that one site is reporting the NEWS and the other is reporting a PREDICTION. (To be fair, we bubble busters were doing the same thing a year or two ago, and saying the news is not the future.)
The housing bust is nearly over. Dana says so.
If he's right, he ought to be congratulated for his prescience. He should be showered in kudo's. He should be nominated for the FED.
What's amazing is that this is a guy's career. I can make all the wild-eyed predictions I want, and it's just me, comic store owner.
But he must believe people have short memories, even if he's wrong.
Besides, if you're having your house appraised, wouldn't you go to HIM! He believes houses are or will be worth MORE!
But, if you read the comments he made, he's more like that drunk friend who is urging you to jump off the bridge into the river, never mind the rocks. Why not! Yahoo!
4 days ago