The more I look at that 11 building permits in January, (and what looks as though will be a similar number in February), the more alarming it seems.
Just for giggles, I looked up 'General Contractors' in the Yellow Pages, and came up with 400. I don't believe this counts electricians and plumbers and roofers and all the other trades.
But, let's set the construction jobs aside, for now, and check the secondary effects.
There are 50 Furniture outlets listed in the Yellow Pages. Let's assume that all 11 permits are for houses and that everyone who is going to live in those houses is going to buy furniture locally (instead of bringing it with them, buying online or elsewhere).
So, each of you gigantic furniture stores get to furnish less than 20% of one new house per month.
So McMahan's, you get the sofa. Jacob's, how about the beds. Lazy boy, the chair.
Good luck with that.
Lest anyone think I'm over negative (who me?) let's take 'benefit of the doubt' elements out. I of course assume that 'refurnishing' is a big element of furniture business, but I assign that a neutral value, since that happens with or without new houses (though it could be argued, refurnishing is almost bound to slow down, too.)
I'm going to guess that at least a 3rd of those new building permits are commercial. So let's lower the total to 8. Then I'm going to assume that at least half of those 'new' homeowners are bringing their own furniture with them. That lowers the total to 4. Then I'm going to assume that half of those new homeowners will buy online or out of town. That lowers the total to two.
So 50 furnitures stores -- meet two new homeowners. May the best man win.
Not to mention home decor, drapes, carpeting, antigues, etc. etc. etc. In fact, look around and ask yourself how many businesses in Bend depend on new houses.
I think Paul-doh's F#@k laden rants may have been understated.
Jesus, someone tell me where I'm wrong.
4 days ago