Friday, February 1, 2008

Earlier this winter, there was an interesting thread over on the Bend Bulletin Board where some newcomer asked, "Does it snow in Bend?"

And up popped a bunch of 'knowledgeable' locals to say, Nay, not hardly. Heck, it hardly ever gets cold. Why, when I lived in the mid-west they wouldn't have put on sweaters for the weather here.

And I was thinking, heh.

So the answer is, from anyone who's lived here for a long time, is:

Yes, it snows in Bend.

Meanwhile, I had another newcomer checking out my store. I've taken to asking, "Have you bought a house recently?"

Sure enough, he bought one in the fall.

And the answer to why, he got a 'special' deal.

So that turns out to be the common denominator whenever I ask: a 'special' deal, unlike everyone else.

If I ask a person in the real estate market, they concede that there might be problems, but they have a 'special' situation.

I'll not even exclude myself from that: my store is 'special' and will weather the storm.

Just human nature, I guess. We're all so darned 'special.'


dkgoodman said...

Many years ago, when I was living in Los Angeles (or should I say, "800 miles south of La Pine"), I went on a business trip to Chicago for the first time. I saw these strange grey domes along the freeway (or should I say, "tollway"), and I couldn't figure out what they were. I asked several people, and nobody knew what I was talking about, or didn't know what they were for. Then, a waitress answered my question. "Oh! Those are where we store the salt."

"What for?"

"For the snow."

"It snows here?" I asked. She laughed at me.

"Yes, it snows here. Where are you from?"

"Los Angeles."

"It doesn't snow there?" she asked. I laughed at her.

Duncan McGeary said...

I could swear that this is the kind of winter that was common growing up here.

Duncan McGeary said...

Meanwhile, I got a second-hand report that nearly no nothing not at all new commercial building permits were taken out last month.

So the commercial bubble I've been talking about may have popped as well.

So, whatever is in the pipeline -- maybe a years worth?

Quimby said...

It seems that we only remember the more epic winters of our youth. I remember digging snow tunnels in drifts 5 feet high outside my house when I was a kid. I haven't seen a drift like that in years....until this year. It seems like Winter is FINALLY back and this snow a little, warm up, rain some, snow a little stuff is gone.

Bend Economy Man said...

When I was a kid in Bend, definitely not every winter was like this, but some were. When I was REAL young, I think early '80s, 1983, I also dug snow tunnels in my yard. There had to be 4 or 5 feet out there.

Then in 1990-1991 (or was it '91-'92), Bend set a town record for having snow on the ground continuously from October to April. Meaning: it snowed in October and it didn't melt until April.

I mean, you can say you love winter, love winter sports, love your new hometown of Bend and I believe you, but when you have a year where there's seven months of continuous freezing temperatures, I mean, everyone just wants to get the hell out of town and go somewhere warm.

It's also no fun when you have snowstorm after snowstorm and the City runs out of snowplow money and starts doing Sidestreet Triage. Snow in town is fun until you're about 10 years old; then it's just a dangerous hassle.

So this winter isn't a FREAK winter - it's an unusually cold and snowy winter, but every few years we DO have an unusually cold and snowy winter.

Carl said...

When they start piling the snow in the middle turn-lane on 3rd street (Hwy 97 for the newbies), then we can say it is hard winter. So far just middling.

Anonymous said...

There are a lot of 'special' deals out there duncan.

It simple takes a combination of events.

1.) A good location.

2.) A home paid off and well maintained.

3.) A seller that MUST sell, and ignores the 2005 HIGH, which is over for at least 10+ years.

I have seen homes go for $280k or lower in my hood, homes that had an ASK of $500k in 2005, homes that cost under $100k in the early 90's. Most people in my hood paid $30k, and are free and clear. At $280k they are doubling their money or better.

My humble opinion is that on the low-end given 4X price/income $240k is a safe price for a good home in a good neighborhood.

The people that are screwed are the post 2000 -> 2006 buyers that over-paid, and bought with zero-down that are under-water. These homes will be destroyed by neglect because the occupants will walk, my estimate 50% of Bend, but fringe.

People talk a lot about short-sales, and foreclosures, but those homes are always un-loved, which means problems. I only focus on homes that are loved, and free&clear. There lots of homes in Bend, that good deals compared to 2005 can be obtained.

Thus I can see when people in your shop say "I got a special deal", it may be true.

A rip-off would be paying $500k on a $1M ( 2005 ) Shevlin crap-shack, even 50%, they'll go lower. High end will take the worst beating, low end, people have to have a place to live.

Ton's of cheap rentals in Bend, no reason to buy. There will always be people who think they have to buy now, or sell now, to get out of town, that's most common with no jobs, its best to sell and get out.

I'm not even going to think about the empty homes in Bend, that's a whole other world.

There are 'deals' out there, and compared to 2005, they are special. Someone aggressive like myself, and that doesn't give a fuck about hurting feeling's can low-ball right now and get a hell of a deal if they control their realtor.

Too many people like on BENDBB focus on the short-sales, and foreclosures that's a pro game and always has been, I was involved in foreclosures back in the early 1980's a lot of people made a lot of money, but you got to think 'wholesale', the majority of the people on these blogs are renters that will be lucky to ever even own one house. Thus is wrong to try to play the wholesale game, because they're not even in the business.