Monday, September 3, 2007

I see no reason to soften our critique about the housing bubble now, just because we've been proved right. It's just really starting, and I see no reason to help the people who put us in this position, the developers, the real estate, the mortgage, the builders. The people who need to hear about the possible dangers and downsides are the buyers, regular people. If there are any people right now contemplating a ARM, or buying an overpriced house, and so on.

There is going to be plenty of BS over the next year, hoping the trap the unwary, the naive, the foolish. It's still important to try to point out the dangers. I predict we are going to get a PR push on the part of the real estate people that will boggle the mind.

We still have to go through the second stage of grief, anger, and I predict that's coming, and we'll hear a lot of anger toward the critics.

I'm probably more pissed off now hearing this stuff than I was a year ago, because a year ago alot of these real estate people really believed in their own line of BS. They really believed that housing prices would keep going up, that ARM's were a good idea, that Californians would just keep moving up here, and so on.....But anyone trying to spout that now is either cynical or a fool, and it is no time to let them get away with it without challenge.

3 comments:

The Natives Are Restless said...

They absolutely buy into their own line of crap. Quite honestly, I feel a little bit sorry for most of them. They're so far behind the curve that they just sorta sit there with that deer in the headlight look.

It reminds me of a roller coaster. The first few cars have gone over the apex and there are a lot of people, a little nervous but not really knowing why yet, just getting ready to go over the edge into the dark abyss below.I give 'em 1 year + to get down there.

Duncan McGeary said...

Most of them have never heard of bubble blogs. I think the 'credit crisis' was the first time they heard there might be a problem. You know, things were a little slow, but people really want to live in Bend....blah, blah.

When sports cards started dropping, it was at least 3 or 4 years before a customer commented on the fact. I still get people asking me how 'cards are doing.'

But all I have to do is laugh, and they start nodding their heads.

Anonymous said...

When sports cards started dropping, it was at least 3 or 4 years before a customer commented on the fact. I still get people asking me how 'cards are doing.'
*
Thanks, this needs to be repeated, many kids want to see a big bright light.
The Great Depression took 13 years or more to play out, the Real Estate didn't even tank for three, we're only YEAR-ONE.
We have a long ride down.
In about 3-4 years people will come into your shop and ask about Bend Real Estate, that place back in 2004/2005 that had the greatest appreciation in the country and you can just smile.
They'll not even think about buying here, however given all the homeless folks begging.

Bend is exceptional, Bend is Aspen.

Bend will be a textbook case of too many golf courses, condos, and cosmetic surgery's. Folks will come here just to study the aftermath of bubble bursts.