Friday, September 21, 2007

In the guest column today, Patrick McGinnis relates that his "friends Steve and Lance, sold business, equity-rich ....property, and now, after taking requisite down time to plot their next moves, both now run small businesses in town." (Bulletin, Sept. 21, 2007)

This kind of comment is made to me all the time. "Oh, I sold my house for a lot of money and started a business in Bend." As if it's a completely natural thing to do.

Here's what I hear.

"So you built that house way up on that cliff?"

"Why yes, isn't it wonderful?"

"May I ask? How do you get up there?"

"Why I flap my arms real hard and fly!"

"Well.....that's all right then."

They took their equity money and opened a small business. I thank them, the city of Bend thanks them. Now spend the money quickly, and learn to live like the rest of us.

Here's something to think about. Long term businesses in Bend, shops that have been around 15, 20, and 25 years are closing up, moving, selling, or completely changing focus. These are shops who have been around during the hard-times, and -- think about this -- have been around during the last few years of boom. And they are saying 'no more.'

If you have had a lifestyle that was such that you can sell out and have so much left over that you can move to a small town and open a business, I can almost guarantee you that what that small business brings in won't satisfy you.

If you are willing to live wisely, not spend money like you're in Silicon Valley, and adjust your aims downward, maybe you'll make it. Not by hiring a manager and five employees and buying every fixture new, and spending a fortune on upgrades. If you are willing to work you and your family, make a bit more than minimum wage, and cater to locals with small boosts from tourists, maybe you'll make it.

I just think that's a very hard transition to make. I'll tell you a secret. All those long-term businesses that are closing? They came in the waves of equity refugees in the 80's and 90's and their savings are gone and they're tired of working 60 hour weeks and their wife has finally put their foot down and said enough.

Look around you. There are a couple of hundred thousand residents in Deschutes County. Not millions. Tourism is helpful about 4 months out of the year. And the housing boom is over.

But thanks for bringing your money to Bend.

4 comments:

The Natives Are Restless said...

One problem that so many have these days is that they can't seem to live within their means; and many, many of them almost feel a sense of intitlement regarding their lifestyles.

Most people my parents age lived in much smaller houses, with smaller and more basic cars, no big screens, etc., etc., etc. They had less debt and were much smarter about spending and saving their money. And on top of all that, they were willing to work more that 8 hours a day...a lot more.

Who needed a manager and employees when you could do the work yourself?

Duncan McGeary said...

And such excess was covered by the boom, and by the big money they made somewhere else.

It's going to be a huge shock to see what Bend can hand you when it isn't booming.

Bend Economy Man said...

That guy McGinnis has had two Bulletin "guest columns" now (one back on Aug. 4, this one on Sep. 21, both explaining how he, as a fireman who moved his family from Orange County to Bend but without giving up his Orange County fireman job, represents some kind of New Paradigm.

It would be one thing if McGinnis designed nanobots from his home office and had a videoconference setup for his frequent uplinks to Japan.

But he's a fireman. All his columns about how he represents the cutting edge of a demographic wave makes me think he's just convincing others, and himself, that the reason he moved his family up here ISN'T because he was afraid his 4 kids would end up getting knifed in the neighborhoods that a fireman could afford to live in in the O.C. - it's because he and his ilk represent a new paradigm.

A simpler reason for Pat McGinnis's plan is that, unfortunately and sadly, firemen don't get paid a whole lot, and Orange County is extremely expensive. And Pat has 4 kids. I guess you could call it white flight without changing jobs. I'm sure that an O.C. fireman gets paid a lot more than a Bend fireman, so he decided to take advantage of the 48-on/48-off shift structure and moved his family out of state.

For whatever reason, Patrick McGinnis is (1) convinced that white middle-class people getting priced out of California constitutes a viable and sustainable new economic base for Bend, and (2) really adamant about convincing everyone else that (1) is true.

Anyhoo, I think the fact that an Orange County fireman commutes to work from Bend says a lot more about how Orange County treats its firemen than it does about Bend's "new economy."

Duncan McGeary said...

I keep coming back to Occam's Razer. The most likely explanation is probably true.

Most of us live in the community we work. Most of us don't work online. Most of us have regular, everyday types of jobs.

Those are the kinds of jobs we should be looking at, not the unusual, the extraordinary.

The ordinary. If we don't have those, we aren't really functioning.