I just heard that Boom Town is closing.

I 'd heard their CD sales were way down, but really didn't want to say anything on rumor. But, especially following the news of Music Millennium closing another store in Portland, it doesn't come as a surprise.

It may be CD's, but I also think it's small business in general. Was there really room for two indy record stores in Bend anymore?

I 'm really not kidding about how much small retail is going to turn over in the next few years in Bend-- and what people ought to think about is that many of these businesses that are currently closing are LONG TERM businesses, with savvy and experienced owners.

Most of these new 'high-end' stores should be so lucky as to last 15, 20, or 25 years. It is nearly impossible, if you aren't experienced, to actually know if you are making a profit. Because losses sneak up on you. And the amazing thing is how the investment is part of that, and I doubt many owners realize how much that initial investment is costing them.

It's a tough road, that I think newcomers mistake as easy when they first start because they are new and excited and have the best inventory they'll ever have.

How could a business that looks to be doing so well go out? Because looks are deceiving. You can sell 60% of your product easy, and since that pays for your product you think you're cruising. The next 20% isn't so easy, but it pays for most of your overhead, so you still think you're O.K. The next 10% takes forever, and you never really notice that the last 10% never sells, or sells for a loss. So instead of the 40% gross profit you thought you were making, you really were making 30%.

Now you have a bit of old, tired product mixed in with the new, and you can't guite get all the new shiny stuff your store seems to need and pay the rent on time, so you cut a couple of items.

And so on, and so on, until half your product isn't turning over anymore, and that bright glorious first couple of years starts to fade from memory.

You throw some money at advertising, and you start having sales, but it seems like the ad bills are just extra, and the sales have less and less effect, especially since the customer wants the new, shiny on sale not the old tired, and now they're waiting for you to put it on sale and won't buy otherwise.

Meanwhile, four years into the venture, those bright shiny fixtures are getting scratched and dented, and the carpet has a few holes, and you still are paying on the original loan.

And a bright, shiny new store opens two doors down. And about five years in, your spouse starts to mutter that he or she never sees you anymore, and you're not much fun, and the kids seem to think their babysitter is their real parent.

And some customer says something like, "Is this all you got?"

And you realize your landlord is moving out your neighbors and you might be next, and it's going to cost another loan to move, and you still have 2 years left on your original loan.

See what I mean? All kinds of stuff going on behind the scenes.

So you make it ten or fifteen years, and finally you're making a bit of money, you've figured out how to do it....and the industry has a sea change on you. The mass market discovers how to sell your best selling line at what you paid, and the internet seems to be selling it at a loss, and someone has figured out a computer program that eliminates the need for your store at all.

Not trying to say that small business isn't something people should do, but that they should be aware it's much tougher than it looks, and having lots of money may only mean you lose lots of money sooner.