There seems to be a growing tendency on the Bendbubble2 blog on the part of critics to say...."it's all been said...."

Actually, I think the housing bust is just starting, that it is going to be long and slow and torturous, and that the majority of those involved in the bubble still don't see it. The dynamics of a bubble have been plain to see since 2005, based on articles and blogs I've read. But you had to want to see them, you had to have some common sense. If you didn't see it then, you're probably not seeing it now. You're a dog who's getting beat and doesn't know why.

Some of them say things like, "yes, there was an excess, but now we're getting back to normal..." as if they can pick 'normal.' I doubt we'll settle on the optimal level on the downside anymore than we settled at the optimal level on the upside. More like a safe crashing through floors.

One of the things that had up to now puzzled me about the housing bubble was that there had been very mild denial, and almost no anger. But now the denial is starting to show up. The anger is next. Get ready, IHTBYB, because it's going to be your fault.

My own guess is that winter will be hard, but hope will be nurtured until spring. The activity of spring and summer will take place, with lots of fuzzy information, but by fall we'll ALL KNOW.

Then a winter for panic to incubate. Followed by panic selling in 2009. And then a long long time before people begin to believe again.

Think as you will, but I'm running my business on the basis of the above scenario. It doesn't hurt that good financial sense works in good times as well as bad; reduce debt, keep overhead and spending low, tend to your knitting.

If I'm wrong, and the economy keeps tooling along or picks up, it's very easy for me to pick up my spending. If I was wrong the other way, it's almost impossible to reduce spending in my business once I've committed. (I order product up to six months in advance, but I can get existing product in two days if I want it.)

So, this is going to be a very Darwinian process. Hell, I just read a letter in the trade publication from a sports card dealer about the importance of 'positive thinking.' How pathetic is that?

Some will never get what happened. They'll save face by blaming someone else -- the 'credit crunch', the fed, the Bend government, whatever. Hopefully, they won't fall for the next fad or bubble.

But the whole 'argument', if that's what it is, has just begun. I doubt even IHTBYB will have the gumption to keep it up; Bendbust, maybe. I'm almost ready to say, "believe whatever you want, if you aren't convinced by now nothing I say will make a difference...."