Friday, September 28, 2007

Last person in on Wednesday was a friend from Sisters who I have great respect for. We tend to disagree on politics just enough for interesting discussions, and have similar literary tastes. (He just turned me on to the book, THE RELIGION, by Tim Willocks, about the siege of the knights of Malta by the Turks in the 1500's, great fun.) Last thing he said as he left.

"People will always want to move to Central Oregon."

"Oh, man," I shook my head. "I can't believe you said that."

First two people in on Thursday. First guy had just lost his construction job. "Will you be able to get unemployment benefits?

"No, it was a three man crew and we were contract workers...."

Second guy in, has had a business in Bend for 20 years and was closing up. "My landlord wants to subdivide my 15k sq. ft. into 3 5k spaces and charge 2.00 a foot. "

"2.00 a foot....on 3rd Street?" I asked, incredulously.

"Yeah, I told him he needed to come check out what's happening in Bend."

Anyway, the guy was 61 years old, and decided just to retire.

It always amazes me how people not only can't see the end of the bubble, but will have random weird spikes.

Third guy in the store. Long time customer who works in construction and always scoffed at my questions about how his industry was doing. "Well, we're doing O.K." he said. "The real action is in commercial real estate."

"Yeah, but doesn't commercial building depend on new population and such?"

"Well, maybe. But there will always be a need for people with my skill."

"Unless building stops altogether."

"Then I'd just move and work somewhere else."

What was most shocking to me was that he had the ready answer, and that he'd obviously thought about it.

Meanwhile, all three spots in the building across the street are still empty. One has had a sign for a new business in the window for three months.

This is how I can tell the difference between a normal person trying to make a living, and a rich person wanting to start a lifestyle recreational 'retail' location; they pay rent for month after month without earning income. Crazy.

One other spot has a for lease sign. And the last spot (the hair stylists in the downstairs and upstairs left quietly....I just looked over one day, and they were gone) is just empty.

You know, someday I'll look back on all this and see that as the peak of the bubble: that a landlord would actually kick out viable tenants who were willing to pay the rent because he wanted higher class businesses. Really crazy.

2 comments:

Bend Economy Man said...

"People will always want to move to Central Oregon"

Let's assume that's 100% true. Question is, CAN they? I mean, we'd be foolish to ignore the fact that a whole lot of the people who moved up here in the last several years weren't just moving here to fulfill a lifelong dream - they were "cashing out" of their high-paying jobs, high-priced houses and so on. More often than not, once moving here they ended up with a bigger house, a nicer car and a garage full of recreational toys. Plus, rather than being in the solid middle class in a place like Orange County or the Silicon Valley or the Bay Area, here they felt like part of the upper middle class.

I think some people always will dream of "downsizing" their lifestyles, but my guess is that for most of them that means working less and playing more, rather than actually decreasing their material standard of living. To do the latter you've almost got to have a monk or hermit outlook.

Maybe if you move to the Central Valley of California, or Willamette Valley or Southern Oregon, or some places along the Gorge, you can buy a few acres of land and, if your financial portfolio falls apart, you can farm - grow and raise enough food for yourself and some to sell. But in Central Oregon you can't do sustenance farming without hundreds of acres. If you move here, and you're not independently wealthy, you gotta work.

Duncan McGeary said...

It's such an unexamined, thoughtless comment. Like the others, "Baby-boomers want to live here."

"They aren't making any more land, you know."

Or the best.

"Housing prices always go up."

But in my store I'm constantly reminded by how little thought most people put into this. It's background noise for most of them.

Even two days ago I had a guy from L.A. saying he wanted to move up. When I questioned him, he didn't have any idea what was happening. He just wanted to live here.

So, maybe, the clueless will save us.

But I'm guessing the guy would've gotten a clue pretty quickly once he got serous.