Friday, September 28, 2007

There is one line of product that absolutely confounds me. I've talked about it before; I even carried it for a short time. I thought very seriously about carrying it again. And if I had opened my second store, it would have been a major part of it.

But the truth is, I can't figure out how what I've experienced, and what I know about business can be so utterly divergent from what others experience and from what others tell me about their business.

Warhammer, by Games Workshop.

This is a British company that creates miniature games. You've seen old movies where some nutty Englishman has a whole room devoted to a landscaped table of a famous battle, and he moves intricate armies around. Well, that's Warhammer, only in the S.F. and Fantasy realm. They have entire stores that sell nothing but their own product -- in metro areas of the U.S. and from what I understand, they completely dominate the gaming landscape in England. In fact, from what I understand, they pretty much crushed the competition partly by finding out which towns sold the most of their product and then opening company stores there.

The product itself is pretty cool. Nicely sculpted and imagined figures, that require painting. Thoroughly imagined worlds and game systems. It's very expensive, but you can almost see why.

But it isn't something you can dabble in. It's more of a lifestyle than a hobby. The fans are...well, fanatic, and they insist that any retailer that carries Warhammer have everything they want.
The company, up until recently, was obnoxiously aggressive.

My experience was: I had customer after customer tell me I should carry the line, and so I went out and bought 2 racks of figures for around 5000.00. And then they sat there. Week after week. The customers would ask, "When are you going to get more?" when I had yet to sell any I had already bought.

I would get a call from my Warhammer rep every few days, hounding me to buy more figures.

"But I haven't sold any!" I'd say.

"What's wrong with you?" the guy would exclaim. "Everyone else is selling them."

I was stunned that a rep of a company who was trying to sell me product would yell at me, hung up, and decided to quit the line.

I just refused. I liquidated the product without a second look back.


A few years pass, and Gambit Games opens and fills a wall with the stuff. By all accounts he's doing great. And then a few more years pass, and Gambit Games is closed. I'd hear constant reports about how the prices would constantly go up, that entire lines would be discontinued, how you had to carry a lot of dead product in order to carry the product that sells. Inventory creep was a huge problem.

I was saved from even thinking about carrying it by the huge expense of money and space and time it would take. On the bulletin boards, some stores would swear by it, and just as many stores would swear off it. Brad at Gambit more or less threatened to destroy me if I dared carry his precious Warhammer, and I just backed away.

When Brad went out, I thought about carrying Warhammer for a few weeks. The company itself seems to have reversed course and is willing to work with you. But I kept getting reports that,
1.) Someone was going to sell in LaPine.

2.) That the hardcore were going to create a buying club, and buy online.

3.) That D's Hobbies was going to buy Brad's stock, and carry the full line.

So I backed off.

A few more months pass. As I'm traveling around the Northwest, I start visiting stores. I go into one store, and the guy tells me he sells 5,000.00 worth of Warhammer a month. I look at his inventory, and he has -- maybe -- 2000.00 worth of product. I've gone back since, the the inventory hasn't increased.

So I'm supposed to believe he is turning his Warhammer over 2.5 times a month? Without him being inspired to buy more? (A turn of 5 or 6 times a year is considered pretty stellar in my business. I turnover my stuff maybe one time a year because I'm following the 'long-tail' model).

So that utterly confounds me.

Then I have a customer who comes in and tells me that a store in a very small town is selling 40,000.00 in Warhammer a month.

"Bullshit," I say.

At the peak of sports cards, I had four stores, and there was a single month where I sold 1000.00 a day among the four stores.

"Total Bullshit," I say. My entire store doesn't even do close to that much, including comics, graphic novels, toys, cards, games, books, and everything else in a downtown Bend store with great foot-traffic and 27 years of experience.

"Complete and utter Bullshit!"

But the guy insisted it was true. Now, I'm utterly confounded. I don't believe it.

What is it about Warhammer that causes everyone to lose perspective?

Warhammer is like a beautiful, alluring woman across the room who you suspect just might make herself available to you if you dropped everything you had and committed everything to her, but who would be high maintenance and would probably cheat on you and after she had emptied your bank accounts, would leave you.

But damn, she's a beautiful woman!

I think it's a really good indication that I should stay far, far away......

4 comments:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I turnover my stuff maybe one time a year because I'm following the 'long-tail' model

Damn, that is an awful long tail. Augers well for going online...

Wow, I don't see how you could turn 1X/yr and make rent. I hope you have a hell of a markup!

Duncan McGeary said...

Perhaps I should say, I'm willing to accept once a year turnover on some product.

The trick is, everything seems to sell eventually, even stuff from 5 or 10 years ago.

And the other trick, is to pay everything through cash-flow, then it doesn't matter as much.

I could get higher turnover, with lower sales, but it works out better for discounts, etc. to have stuff no one else has -- the stuff that sells once a year -- that keeps the competition at pay.

The high turnover stuff is usually brutally competitive, and usually has lousy discounts.

It is the natural consequence of not trying to compete with Walmart and Target. When people say, you get to sell niche product, what they are really saying is, you get to sell product that turns over so slowly that Target isn't interested.

Anonymous said...

I've experienced, and what I know about business

*

From what you write about war-hammer, it sounds like real bull-shit. Sounds like everyone in the game biz is a shit eater.

What I have always done is network, find out who makes money and emulate what they do, especially once you know their inside operations. For instance these days Powells is running itself in the toilet, I would not emulate them today.

If you travel as you did this month to all the game stores in the NW, and everyone tells you war-hammer is great, and you know that its NOT, and I agree, there is NOTHING like personal experience, from the gut to know the truth. YOU KNOW, you had it on your shelves, your in Bend you had high traffic of 'rich stupid tourists', you would have known if it was a golden-goose.

Sounds like the reps of this product line have created their own emperors clothing system. I'm surprised the chinese haven't copied the line.

My reason for responding is it sounds strange in all your travels to the coast, valley, eastern washington, that you meet no straight-shooters in your line of business. Perhaps you need to go to a game-show and talk with and hang out at a war-hammer booth, and find out for a fact all about the demo-graphics, I can tell that your interested in this product line.

My guess is ALL your other little game shops are like you, getting buy ( by defn of min wage job ), and they're scared to hell of letting the other guy know of their niche. That said its all about your customers and their disposable income, thus what somebody does in LaGrande really doesn't help you.

Another thing if people buy as much 'war-hammer' as you think, then there should be a ton of the stuff being dumped on ebay. Is there? This sounds to me like an over-marketed pet rock.

Good for you, that you like retail, and want to stock stuff, and wait for folks to walk in. Sounds like you have way too many directions, books, comics, games, esoteric collecting ( war-hammer ), ... All things in life, even for a niche biz, its still always 10% of your line, makes 90% of your profit. Focus on what works, you have been in biz for 30 years, if you don't know by now?

My guess is that given we haven't had a NW recession for 20 years, that ALL your NW game shops are going to be liquidating for pennys on the dollar, I would buy a large warehouse, and hold my pennys. Then you can end up with the largest war-hammer inventory in the NW.

Don't wish for anything, you might get it.

Anonymous said...

I wanted to say something about Powells as your always mentioning they are the model.

1.) The missed the boat on internet, they're less than 1% of amazon, they have presence, but they're a joke, they have runners that literally have to run between buildings in pdx to fill orders. While amazon generally has third partys fill orders.

2.) Having bought books 30+ year from powells I have seen the customer service go to shit. I have had people their try to short change me when I buy books for cash. The employees have been trying to unionize for years, they generally hate the owner. The average age their is now over 40, and there are too many people in dead end jobs with no health. They treat customers like shit.

At this point I no longer go to powells unless I have to, I used to go to the technical bookstore monthly, its has gotten so bad in rudeness, and laziness that I will no longer even go in there. Over the years I have written to michael ( owner ) many times, and when short-changed, he sends a check. He seems to feel like McMennamins, that shitty employees is a fact of life, when your paying shit wages and shit benefits, expect shitty attitudes and petty theft.

So there you have it the powells model, perhaps 20 years ago powells was cool, I think because then the average work force was 20+, but now its 40+, and nothing is more miserable than an old contemptuous hippy-loser.

To me in the book biz, I would say, keep it small, and work closely with your employee's, Michael Powell just stays in his office, and lets ALL his employees do what they want, they run the company, and they're running it in the ground. Eventually they will unionize, and when they do, he'll have to liquidate, as he doesn't have the cash flow to pay good wages, and medical on a 40+ work-force.