I love the idea of a Bust-O-Meter for downtown businesses. If it wasn't so mean-spirited and filled with karmic land-mines, I'd do it. (Yes, I'm superstitious that way. I knock wood whenever I say the wrong thing, or someone near me says the wrong thing....either way too positive or way too negative.) I cringed when Paul-doh cheered the demise of the Shire -- bad karma, man.

Still, in my head, I keep a running Bust-O-Meter. Scale of 1 - 10.

1.) Are they locals, or have they lived in Bend long enough to get the flavor? Are they from a big city, and thus have over-inflated notions? Are they from a small town, and thus have over-inflated notions? Do they have a notion of the seasonality of Bend? The neighborhood layouts? Do they realize that most longtime Bendites consider downtown Bend overpriced? That they are under the impression there is no parking? That we've gotten houty-touty? Do they have a way to get locals to their store, or are they depending entirely on the rich and the tourists? Are they aware how much turnover we've seen? How many longtime businesses have quit lately? That gauging success on the existence of stores that have been around for only a few years is tricky?

2.) Do they open within a reasonable length of time? Any longer than 3 months, and the Bust-O-Meter starts going up. A real, work-a-day business would probably contrive to open on the same day the first month's rent is due -- or even get that free. I can't imagine paying rent month after month without bringing in income. A sign that the owner has more money than sense.

3.) Are they focused inside or outside? Do they seem to spend all their time and money on fixtures and accouterments? On recipes and systems? On playthings and computers? Do they talk about the interface with the customers? I always have to make it very clear to my employees that while it's important that all the procedures get done, never, ever put the procedures ahead of the customer.

4.) Are they spending too much money in advance? Are they leaving any space, time, money for mid-course corrections? Do they have so much money they just throw money at every problem, instead of looking for a lower-cost solution? Too much money being spent means not many creative solutions are getting done. It's just a big giveaway that the owner is probably not very flexible and adaptive.

5.) Is their product appropriate for the size of the town? Have they done the research? Are they too narrowly focused? Is it all 'high-concept'? Are they realistic about the customer base? Do they have enough diversity and variety to appeal to all the citizens of Bend, or just the 'upper crust?' Are they competing head to head with the chainstores? If not, do they have a niche product that can actually support them? (Niche being something that Target doesn't carry because they calculate there's no money in it.)

6.) Is the owner working the majority of the hours, or have they hired managers and too many employees?

7.) Do they open weird hours and close weird hours?

8.) Location, location, location? Are they a 'drive up' business that opened in downtown Bend, (a 'walk-by' zone) or a 'walk-by' business that opened on Greenwood (a 'drive up zone? Are they a destination store that could get just as many customers in a lower rent area and the only reason they're downtown is because it's 'cool?'

9.) Are they treating it like they know it's a business, or does it seem like a plaything or a hobby? Is it a dream, or a business? Do they have other options? (Like going into a marriage with the thought you can always get a divorce?) Do they give an indication that they understand that it will be hard work?

10.) Is the space they rented too big? Too small? (It's almost always the former, not the latter.)
Did they pay too much? Unfortunately, almost anyone who has opened a business in downtown Bend or the Old Mill is paying too much, currently, and it's beginning to infect places like 3rd Street.

11.) Do they seem to think that advertising and discounting is the answer? Do they talk about 'service' as if it's a magic mantra that will protect them from all harm? Have they built into their business plan so many free services and guerrilla marketing that they face burn-out down the road?

12.) Are they opening the same damn business that five other people are opening within a block or two? Do they think they are so inspired that -- even though plenty of other people are doing the same, they'll be the one's to succeed?

13.) Are they aware that -- it doesn't matter how charming they are, how hard working, how knowledgeable, how great their fixtures, their locations, their merchandise -- that it's day to day sales that count. Money over the counter. And that ain't easy. Do they have realistic expectations of income? I've always thought waiting years for a profit is nuts. So is expecting to take out a lot of money, even over the long run. You've bought a job, probably a job that pays way less than the job you left. Have you invested too much for a 12.00 an hour job to ever get it back? Will you be satisfied making less? If you are planning to get rich, opening a small business in downtown Bend probably isn't the way to go about it.

There are more factors, of course, but those are 13 off the top of my head.

I've heard all the statistics about business failures, the 2 year, the 5 year. And for Bend, I think it's all Bunk. I think the 'survival' rate is much higher in the short run that most of the statistics, but much lower over the longer run. I think Bend businesses almost always last 2 years and very often last 5 years. But I'll give credit to anyone who last 10 years or longer.