Again, I'll let others more knowledgeable and into it, decipher the Bulletin's graphs on housing yesterday. Except to wonder if, when estimating the 'days on market', the number of new building permits is subtracted from the total number available. If they sold 266 units, but built 149, that only draws down the inventory by 117, right?

The number that really interests me, is the number of new business filings. Look at that graph, folks. While the number of building permits has gone from 126 in the year 1997 to 149 in the year 2007, a 14% increase, the number of new business filings has gone from 41.9 to 418, or by 10 times!

I'm not sure what businesses are being counted here; real estate, retail, hair salons? But any way you figure it, it makes even the housing bubble look small. And while the housing bubble is correcting, it looks to me as though the business filings continue to spiral out of control.

It says to me that newcomers are trying to create new jobs to go along with their new houses.

One thing I've noticed in my store: most civilians have absolutely no clue to the appropriateness of a business; that is, they don't understand the proportional aspect whatsoever. I get the comment every single day, "Are you the only comic shop in town?" There is no irony in the question. They really seem to believe that Bend could support another shop, maybe more. And the same holds true of all other businesses they mention.

There is a range of possible numbers of sizes and numbers of businesses in each type of environment, but it is a very NARROW range. Sure, Bend could have 3 comic shops, but I guarantee you one is already doomed, one is struggling, and one is maybe making a small living.

So, at a guess, that is indeed what is happening in Bend retail. The proportionality of scale has been completely lost. And when or if there is weakness in the local economy, there is going to be hell to pay.