Sunday, October 7, 2012

Foreclosures? Have another beer.

"FORECLOSURE RATES ARE WORST HERE:  Central Oregon vs. The State."  (Bulletin, 10/7/12.)

The high rate of foreclosures in Bend has always been a given to me.  It didn't seem feasible to me that we could have been included in the high-flying territory of Prescott, Az. and Naples, Fl. and Las Vegas, Nv -- without suffering the same fate.

Those maps you see of the county which show state by state conditions?  Oregon has always looked all right there.  Except, I knew that at the center of the state was a place that could be easily taken out and placed right at the center of the worst areas in the rest of the country.

I'm not sure how the real estate boosters here in Bend can be so blithe about the conditions here.  I suspect they believe it.  I suppose they would tell me that the prices are now reasonable, but they've been pretty much saying that for years now.  I suspect the foreclosure rate would be much much bigger if the banks really went after every overdue homeowner.

I don't think the Bulletin clearly draws the line between the housing boom and the job losses and the foreclosures.  The job losses come from the housing bust, after all.

I actually think Bend has gotten away with a bit of slight of hand, by being part of Oregon.  The real conditions have been somewhat hidden.  Tourism didn't stop, and some of the business areas have maintained their looks.  (Not sure how that happened -- it would seem counter-intuitive.)


Helen said...

100% I agree .. always had the nagging feeling we weren't meant to be lumped in with the rest of Oregon!

Anonymous said...

I'm new here. We bought last year because we like the area and felt that it was affordable. Our home is our home, not an investment. That being said it looks to me that the worst of the economic conditions are over. Houses under $200K are being gobbled up by investors and folks that feel they are in a position to buy, downtown looks pretty vibrant. I think things are looking up. I hope so.

Anonymous said...

Dear Anonymous who's new here .......

Please be advised that your optimism is not going to be looked on kindly. People who have anything positive to say, especially about real estate, and post it on a local blog are in store for an earful. Dunc seems more tolerant then most but he can’t seem to let something good pass by without a comment of his own. He’s definitely a glass half full guy.

And just wait for HBM ……………………… He’s a barrel of laughs.


Duncan McGeary said...

"...can't seem to let something good pass by without a comment..."


But I did!

Until now.

I think whether things are better for the economy overall is debatable. Hopefully no one is being told to shut up.

(P.S. If Buster comes along, you'll know it, and you can take him for what he's worth.)

I don't think HBM is overly harsh -- just dissatisfied with Bend, these days.

I think both things can be true -- that they are manipulating the market to keep the supply of affordable houses down,and that there are some decent deals to be had.

New anon's opinion that the "worst" of economic conditions are over -- isn't an outrageous opinion. We could see another dogleg down, or we may be bumping along the bottom or...hopefully, we may actually begin to see a recovery. Debatable, as I say.

The glass IS half full.

We are a good 4 to 5 years into it, after all.

My point is, that Bend has been somewhat cloaked under the Oregon banner, while our conditions were closer to some of the conditions in the worst states.

Duncan McGeary said...

Oh, and I hope you haven't been discouraged from your opinions here.

H. Bruce Miller said...

Anonymous New Guy: If your home is a home and not an investment, and you don't decide to move or are forced to move, everything will be fine for you. But as for a real estate recovery, there's still a lot of excess housing inventory, and we're not seeing any new housing construction to speak of. Home prices won't rebound significantly until (a) the national economy recovers from the Great Recession and (b) the local excess housing inventory has been burned off. A great deal of the home-buying we're now seeing is by "investors" (read: speculators) who are picking up bargains and have the wherewithal to hold them until the market rises again.