Pegasus Books January, '09 results.

PERSPECTIVE.

First of all, to put the following into perspective, January, '08 was a benchmark low month. Almost an anomaly. It was considerably lower than any other month until Sept. rolled around (and the drop off really set in.)

SCENARIOS.

Given last year's horrible January, my best case scenario of 'matching' last years totals was actually pretty modest.

My middle case scenario was a 15% drop, which I thought likely.

My low case scenario was a full 30% drop, which is what I budgeted for.

Halfway through the month, I clearly wasn't going to have a 30% drop, so I more or less spent the difference.

The end results were down a little less than 10%. I came out ahead in profits above estimates by about 2000.00, which I immediately spent on February bills. (Mostly books.)

Results and payments don't exactly correlate, clearly. Much of the sales in late January were the results of spending for February, just as much of the results for late February, the bills will come due in March.

As long as it's consistent.

OVERHEAD.

I had several unexpected bills: SAIF, which wouldn't allow me to cut if I expected to have an employee anytime this year. And I had the last employee tax bills due.

February overhead bills will be 25% less than January, because I no longer have any payments related to having an employee.

OVERALL RESULTS.

So, 10% down. Normally wouldn't be something to celebrate, but looking outside my window, and reading the news, that ain't bad. I spent most of December with minimal reorders, and the last two weeks of December and the first two weeks of January without any reorders, so the results are actually pretty good.

CATEGORIES:

Books were two and half times higher than last year.

Comics and graphic novels seem to have stabilized, down a little less than 10% after falling for several months.

Games were up slightly.

Card games were down slightly.

Sports cards were down slightly. Card box buyers come, card box buyers go.

Toys were way down, but it's dangerous to read too much into one month. This could be an anomaly, or a sign that the general public is cutting out playful things.

DVD's continue their slide into oblivion.

THE RIGHT INVESTMENT.

Clearly I made a good choice to invest in board games and new books. Even the massive order I made in Mid-January was justified, I believe, by the results. I'm going to defer a third of that order into March, because most of it was 'evergreen' material and basic inventory. Investment, if you will.

Board games have been really interesting. I could easily have sold way more Settlers of Catan, but I had shipping problems (being shorted several times) which kept me from really taking advantage.) Frustrating, but not a darn thing I can do about it.

FUTURE PREDICTIONS.

If I can match January sales in February, I'll be very fortunate. I went ahead and budgeted that much, because I can see that the worst isn't happening and because there are several events that should influence sales (the new Magic release, the Watchmen movie) and because the store is much better stocked now than at the beginning of January.

But matching January is a full 25% drop. I sort of expect it. And -- well, I took the first day off, and it's a short month, so even matching January might be difficult. The only reason I think I can do it, is that the I'm on top of the store right now and letting few opportunities go by.