Monday, February 23, 2009

My moment of 'high' finance.

Went to see our financial guy (I have a financial guy? Well, my family has a financial guy, and he was willing to set aside an hour for me and Linda.)

Thing is, I've always had more faith in my ability to turn 1.00 into 2.00 in my store, than handing it to 'financial guys...."

Or I've needed whatever money I had just to survive.

But whatever money I've made in this store beyond living expenses, is locked up in inventory, which may or may not be retrievable.

Linda and I had a small IRA in the '90's, which we closed and paid huge penalties and taxes. But it was that, or give up the store. It's awfully late to be starting a new one, but better late than never, and if I make a maximum contribution in both IRA's every year for the next 10 to 15 years, it might actually become something.

The irony is that in the last decade, the money we might have put in (1997) would currently be worth about what we can put in now. A lost decade.

Of course, the big thing about IRA's is that they more or less save you about 1/3rd of your contribution in taxes, so it's like turning a 6k contribution into an automatic 8k in returns.

We finally got a couple of new IRA's started a couple of years ago. We missed last year. One of the reasons I wanted a lease early was so I could possibly have a contribution this year. (If I had had to move, it would've cost an enormous amount of money, which my aborted idea of a second store showed me, not to mention the risk of falling sales until people found us again....)

I've been holding a lump sum in savings just to cover checks in the store. It's been a great luxury; I don't have to worry that if I miss a deposit that I'll bounce a check.

On the other hand, my budget is currently working and has been working for a couple of years now, and I've rarely dipped into it. I also have a line of credit with my bank, so that's also enough....(there is an annoyance in that to replenish the line of credit, I can't do it over the phone but have to actually go into the bank.)

So I'm sitting in the store on Friday, watching the stock market reach 1997 levels, and I'm thinking maybe this is time to get an IRA contribution in, both for 2008 taxes and because....well, the stocks are certainly cheaper than they were a couple of years ago.

Of course, every time I hear that kind of reasoning on house prices, I wince, because I can go every day to the Bend Economy Bulletin Board and see that 99.9% of the prices have been dropping for a couple years, and are still showing no signs of bottom.

I figure you could wait until at least 10% of the prices go up, or 20%. You're not likely to miss the bottom by much. I figure for every 6 months you wait, you might be saving 5 years worth of principle payments.

So...what if the same is true on stocks? Who's to say the stock market won't drop to 5000 or lower?

Well, the deciding factor is the saving in taxes.

And strangely, it'll make me more disciplined in saving at the store.

RDC mentioned averaging, and that sounded like a good idea. (watching the stock market drop another 200 points (currently) reinforces that idea.)

So I tell my financial guy what I want to do, and he launches into an explanation of what they planned to do, and what has happened, and so on.

Weird thing. I understood everything he was saying. I could even embellish it, and I could see a couple of holes in his reasoning. But mostly, I was reassured that he knew what he was doing, and I knew I wasn't going to be watching every move, and they've handled my Dad's trust well over the years, so I told him to go ahead.

I also found out that after 59.5 years of age, one can withdraw without penalties; so we can also make a full contribution to Linda's IRA and the money would be accessible.

And he reassured us that, in any case, the money is only 3 days from being liquid.

So I'm doing the full amount for both accounts, which will pretty much wipe out my savings -- but I've got a couple of months to see how I can do replenishing that before I have to make the final decision on Linda's.

All very interesting to me, though probably everyday stuff to RDC and Jesse and all those other market guys.

4 comments:

RDC said...

Duncan,

I am a strong advocate for saving and investing. However, I would ask the question of are you sure you are doing the right thing with going the IRA route. The item I am keying on is your comment about saving you money on Taxes. That means that you must be looking at traditional IRA (pre-tax contributions) and reducing your taxable income. Keep in mind that if you contribute to a traditional IRA and take the upfront tax benefit, then anything you withdraw is taxed as income in the future. As such if you invest in equities you run the risk of the downside, without the benefit of lower capital gains taxes on the upside. As such you really really should compare two approaches:

1. Traditional IRA, immediate tax benefits on the contributions, but taxed on extraction as income (expect tax rates to be higher in the future)

2. Roth IRA (if you qualify and I believe that you do) You do not get the immediate tax benefits, but withdrawals in the future are tax free.

I would encourage really looking at the Roth side. Even if it means a smaller contribution today.

I would also encourage looking at Vanguard as a good place to put your investments. Good selection of low cost index funds spanning the range of investments (equity, bond, money market, etc). You could put the money into a money market and then average into equities over a period (even for a small investment)

If you get a chance read a book by John Bogle (who started Vanguard, which by the way is a non-profit) called The Little Book of Common Sense Investing.

I do think that we have more down side (even if we might see a few more bear market rallies). The global economy is tanking too rapidly and I consider the steps being taken by the US Government to be too focused on short term "stimulus" which will be limited in effectiveness, and will end up costing more in duration and other economic problems. We will need the money they are shoveling out the door more later on.

tim said...

>>The irony is that in the last decade, the money we might have put in (1997) would currently be worth about what we can put in now. A lost decade.

Maybe. With dollar cost averaging you could possibly be ahead, and would not have been taxed on the money.

But inflation would have probably put you slightly negative anyway.

It doesn't make sense to do this calculation from peak to trough, though.

Anonymous said...

Who's to say the stock market won't drop to 5000 or lower?

###

It will go to DOW 4000, and it may not return in your lifetime.

Want to make money?? Invest in yourself.

Buy your own building, and rent it to some idiot who will run a comic shop to the ground, and then re-cycle, ... with another idiot.

Thirty years ago my CPA told me to stay away from ALL IRA's and tax scams, they all tie up your money, most people draw early and get screwed ( pre 59 ), then when they do get old they get screwed when they don't withdraw, sure you can beat the system if you watch your dot's and cross your t's, but I'm an advocate of living your life and to HELL with the IRS tax code.

It's fairly clear that jesse, rdc, homer, ... are brokers, and thus need to have IDIOTS churn the stock market.

The greatest fortunes have been made in real estate.

The stock market is a rigged game, unless your doing new issues and selling paper to idiots. Unless your a broker and selling stock to idiots.

In the 1940's there was stock market book called "Where are the customers yachts", funny there wasn't any, but the brokers and stock houses the boss-hogg of the market ( like made-off ) all had yachts, ... funny then, funny now.

The great-depression saw the market collapse from 1929 until 1950, 21 fucking years. A whole generation stayed away from the beast.

AMNESIA.

Same today, if 911 2001 was the dot-com 1929, this amnesia will be at least 2021, which is about right for the begin of the next BULL.

AMNESIA.

Will dunc even be alive? Will most of the trades even be on the exchange? Today just picking companys that will survive is difficult.

Real Estate is 'REAL' don't forget it.

Today still most US stocks have paper IOU's backing their pension obligations ( think us auto ), 'mark to market' has not even begun, because the market is a DEN of liars, jess&rdc are a perfect example, just like our REHO's that pumped & dumped BEND RE.

Good luck.

DUNC tell us what PAIN you felt in 1983?? Did you even have a job?? What were you doing during that recession? Afraid?

Duncan McGeary said...

I was managing Pegasus Books. Mike Richardson had bailed to Portland and was starting his little Dark Horse Empire and letting the Bend store go to hell.

Rent was .35 a foot.

It was quiet.

But, you know what, there were actually more comic readers back then than now...