Eating the fat.

Buster seems to think I'm calling for a return to 1983.

I know 1983, I was here in 1983, and Buster....this isn't 1983.

I don't think we'll return to those bad old days for a number of reasons.

1.) In 1983, the national chains barely had a presence in Bend; a couple of anchors on the end of both malls, and that was pretty much it. Once these dinosaurs get to Bend, it's unlikely they'll leave. (Other than a few national BK.R's and local branch closures, the vast majority are here to stay.)

2.) The population is so much larger.

3.) We have become a regional hub. In health, especially.

4.) Rich people. I'm sure they're here, even if I'm never aware of them in my store (which says something right there.) I've talked to enough people who service these rich to believe they exist.

5.) The tourism and retirement industries are real, and much, much bigger than 1983. They may pay minimum wage, but at least they pay something.

It's just that I'm not a great believer in the 'trickle down' theory. I never bought the rich could pull the rest of Bend up. I believe they are more likely not to spend money, or to spend money elsewhere. (I get these people in the store from out of town all the time. The rich go elsewhere to spend silly money, the rich visit here to spend silly money.)

I'm sure that there will be some enclaves that will do well.

Anyway, I don't believe I'm exaggerating to believe that maybe half of Bend's business was due to the boom. But a good percentage of these people will make adjustments, and find ways to stick around.

I've always felt a 30% drop was the most likely outcome. The fact that we are already there from the peak, probably means I underestimated it. But I planned for a 50% drop.

Still, I doubt vacancies will get past even 10% or 20% at worse downtown -- a far cry from the 40 to 60% vacancies in 1983.

Bend was a pretty lean town even in the late 70's, and had very little to fall back on.

We're considerably fatter right now.