Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Well, since I signed a 'non-binding' letter of intent, yesterday, I guess my intent is clear.

I'm planning to open a second store in Bend. Let me be clear -- it is an additional store. Not instead, not substituting for....a complete new store, henceforth know as P2. (I have the idea of a sign with a logo of my flying white horse, alongside a second flying horse that's black, and the letters, "PEGASUS, too.")

I do NOT want to turn this into a round of downtown bashing. I like downtown. I've been here for all of my career. This move is only peripherally motivated by anything that is happening downtown. I have no intention of moving from downtown, or even making any major changes to my operation. I like the way it's going. If I thought this move was going to take away from the downtown store too much, I wouldn't do it. But my experience has been that each store creates it's own clientele. Downtown, in particular, has it own peculiar dynamics that aren't much affected by the rest of Bend.

One of the big surprises when I had a store in the Mountain View Mall, was how little it seemed to affect the downtown store, and vice verse.

Still, there are two main reasons I want to do this: I'm sick and tired of no one knowing who we are. If I get one more person in the door who says, "I didn't know you were here," I'll throw a book at them. Especially if they answer, "I've lived here for 3 years (or five or seven.)"

I go back to my Longview example -- it has grown less than 10% in 10 years, so it probably the reverse of Bend; instead of 75% or more of the population being new in the last 5 years, 75% of their population are existing. You can bet that any store that has been in their downtown for 27 years would be well-known.

Downtown has become a tourist haunt, with a few destination stores like mine. The foot traffic has been fabulous. Beyond my wildest expectations. I may only catch a small percent of that traffic, but, boy, does it help. Still, more and more locals tell me that they don't come downtown, anymore.

When we had a store in the mall -- even at it's worst -- way more people found us. I still get the comment, "I used to shop here when you were at the mall." Well, NO , we were here first, but they never came here.

I also have the example of my wife's store, which has turned out well. I've been envious of her visibility on the corner of one of the busiest intersections in Bend. No foot traffic at all -- just the ability to drive up to the door and get out and shop. More than compensates. In effect, her location is her advertising.

However, those kinds of locations are rarely available. Almost never. We'd all but given up opening a used bookstore before that space came open. We'd looked at spots all over town. I'm convinced that the store probably wouldn't have survived anywhere else.

If you think of the main arteries in Bend, you have to say that 3rd Street (old Hwy. 97) is the biggest north/south commercial street, and Greenwood (Hwy. 20) is the biggest east/west. The other main commercial east/west is Franklin. (Portland/Olney is a traffic artery, but not commercial.)

This is the corner I'm looking at. I've been surprised when I use the Sweetheart Donuts stand, (bright red, on the corner) as my landmark that people don't know where it is, but I'm talking about the building just south of the Murry and Holt car lot on the corner of Franklin and 3rd. The one that has been a furniture store over the years. Great location, lousy building.

The new owner is fixing it up nicely. It's pretty much gutted, right now, so you have to use your imagination, but it fits the number one priority for me to open a new store.

VISIBILITY!

The second reason is even more simple.

SPACE!

I have a thousand square feet downtown. After 24 years of owning it, it has been completely filled, top to bottom. I feel like I'm in a straight-jacket. I can function, but like a goldfish in a small pond, I can only get so big.

The space I'm looking at is 2200 sq. ft. There are many things I can do to generate sales in a bigger space. I would have zero trouble filling it.

Why open two stores? Because the downtown store is doing well. In fact, I can probably carry a second store for a fairly long period of time. So there is no reason to cut that lifeline. I like my store, I think it's a little gem. But it has been cut and polished to a fairthewell.

I have an employee who is doing very well, who knows the store, and who has accepted managership of the store (P1). He'd be doing pretty much what he's doing now, and I'd pretty much be working almost as much in P1 as I am now. I'll never make the mistake of not being connected to a store again. (When I had four stores, in downtown, Mt.View Mall, Redmond and Sisters, I thought I could float from store to store, but my management style just wasn't appropriate for that, nor were the systems solid enough, or the financial strength.)

But I've also learned to give a manager authority to do his job. He's excited by the prospect.

Because the location won't be finished for a while yet, I'll have enough time to plan and prepare. That's big, as well.

The rent is slightly lower than my current downtown rent; probably a little high for the traditional rents on 3rd Street. But it's considerably lower than current rents downtown, and certainly lower than the rents I'm likely the face in a few years downtown.

But wait a minute, I hear you all saying, aren't you the guy who's been saying there is a housing bubble, that the economy is going into the toilet?

Well, no, you mistake me for the other guys. Yes, there has been a housing bubble, which is popping, but I've never really felt that Bend was going in the toilet. And I don't think I'm kidding myself when I say that my particular business can actually flourish at times like this. (I know, I know, that's what they all say.)

I think a new, creatively charged store on 3rd Street might be just what the doctor ordered!

So this blog is going to be filled with all the details or my planning from here on out. I hope it won't bore you all.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great to hear the news that your getting more space, and committing to downtown. Good to hear you have a manager you can trust to watch the old store.

I don't think most people think that Bend will implode, just change. The future of downtown will be more mixed, as the high-end merchandise will be replaced by utility. Young and old tourists will continue to visit, so long as our zoning mandates that we don't destroy our old buildings. NO MORE FRANKLIN-CROSSINGS.


Reference check, in 1983 stuff that had been selling for $80k, fell to $30k, then by 1986 it was back to $120k, and today the ask is $450k. For all purposes Bend has NOT had a correction for twenty years, we're simply going through a correction during the next 3-5 years.

This is not the end of the world, folks that aren't bleeding and that can just watch and keep their job for 3-5 years will be fine.

Folks that paid TOP prices in the last five years, that is another story, it will take a long time to get back there.

This is ALL quite slow and orderly, note that we're already into our first year, and the BULL is Just now telling people its game over, in the next few months it will be the topic of the town, and a lot of people will move-on.

There is a SHIT-LOAD of inventory in Central-Oregon, and with the loss of new construction there will be less employment. RE & MTG jobs are completely down, perhaps 90% of our 2,000+ Realtors will move-on?

There really are a lot of retiree's that want to move to Central-Oregon, and once the medians fall below $200k, they'll start buying the bargains. That will be 2009. Bargains can be had now, there were bargains in February-07.

People need a place to live, we handed out OPM for free, and home-ownership went from 60% to 70%, now its going to go back below 60% for a long time.

That said, the baby boom is over, and grandpa is looking for a hobby-farm so he can grade rocks on his John-Deere 790.

There is NO end of the world, easy money is over, we'll fall very low, and then come back up to stabilization, which will be near 4X of income.

The day of mcMansions is over, NATURAL GAS heat is supposed to go 10X in the next ten years now that we have passed peak-oil. Most rational people will not heat a home bigger than 1,000sq-ft.

There will be no more cali dot-con millionaires, the stock-market options game is cali has been over for two years.

No end of the world, so what if a little home in Bend falls from $500k to $200k, that only effects those that paid top-price during the last five years. It's called the greater-fool theory, and the greatest fool bought in May 2006.

It's human nature not to brag about being stupid, most people will just leave quietly.

It's a very good thing that this will be a slow process.

Duncan McGeary said...

"I don't think most people think Bend will implode, just change..."

Who are you, and what have you done to Bendbust?

Jen said...

Congrats, Duncan! I know exactly where the little red donut shack is. We pass through that area several times a week. It will be fun to watch things take shape...

Little Things said...

Congratulations,Duncan! That's great - I can't wait to hear more about your plans for a new store.

Jason said...

I'll come work for you!

I need a change of scenery after eight-plus years at this hotel.

Plus, a job with daylight hours would be nice, too ...

Duncan McGeary said...

A little postscript.

Bears-Stearns happened and I had second thoughts.

Thank god.