I don't know why the Bend Housing Bubble intrigues me so.

I bought my house in the first couple of months of 2004; a month or two before prices started skyrocket. Even with the worst case scenarios,(78% overpriced) my house is worth about what I paid.

I got in on some of the lowest historical 30 year rates, and have done well enough over the last year to double down on my payments.

Was reading Bendbubble2 analysis of 5 towns, Bend; Naples, Fl; Wichita, Dayton, and Charlotte. Hard to argue with his facts or his conclusions, except to mention that because we are a smaller town than any of them except Naples, we probably have even less adaptability. I agree with his conclusion that Dayton and Charlotte probably represent reality. It seems damning and inescapable.

And yet.....and yet....

I have three really good customers who are sub-contractors, and one really good customer who is a developer. The developer has started a brand new project, convinced that HIS idea is new and workable.

All three of the sub-contractors are not only working hard, but tell me that they have jobs lined up into the future.

None of them are stupid or delusional. They acknowledge that they have co-workers who are cutting back. All are convinced that they are different, mostly because they are working for the 'high-end'.

Anecdotal evidence, to be sure, but it doesn't look like I'm going to lose any of them as customers for the near future.

Then again, I have two adjacent neighbors with houses for sale, and I almost NEVER see anyone looking at them, even on nice weekends in June.