Wednesday, July 11, 2007

In many ways, I've got a great situation downtown. In many ways, the store is exactly what I wanted it to be. The store is functioning at a very high level. It would be crazy to move.

But sometimes I daydream about what it would be like to have twice the space. To be able to fill it with fresh clean fixtures. To be able to properly display and organize my merchandise. To have parking spots in front of my store. To have a store like my wife's, where thousands of people drive by every day.

To have a fresh, clean space to start over.

It's a moot point. I signed my lease several years ago when rents weren't quite so crazy; and I still have a ways to go. I have a realistic chance to make money, almost for the first time in my career.

And yet, wouldn't it be cool to design a store from the ground up.

Ah, well.
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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's a moot point. I signed my lease several years ago when rents weren't quite so crazy; and I still have a ways to go. - duncan

***

Please go into detail about what kind of terms they're putting on you.

Triple-Net lease? What are the terms exactly, in totality? How about your biz neighbors terms? My guess is average retail sales are already down -50% from last year this time for most downtown, it needs to be clear that economically if your sitting on the first year of a five-year triple-net that most cannot afford to bail. Anymore than most homeowners sitting on a zero-down ARM can walk.

This is all similar to the reset MTG foreclosure game, its going to go up, but you can't sell and/or REFI because the property doesn't APPRAISE.

July 12, 2007 at 12:26:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...


A few harsh winters, to expose the shoddy construction work, a few natural disasters, (a burning subdivision or two, overrun by deer, rock chuck, and rabid squirrels.) Settle in, lose your Cali-bagger status and become locals, struggling to get by. - dunan


What a beautiful sight.

Carpet-Bagger: It was originally a derogatory term, suggesting an exploiter who does not plan to stay. Since 1900 the term has also been used to describe outsiders attempting to gain political office or economic advantage, especially in areas (thematically or geographically) to which they previously had no connection.

I'm not sure if cali-bagger is apt, a bagger in my mind is a yank who came south to get carpet post civil-war. Bend has NOT yet fell on the hard times to come ( next year ), then the carpet-baggers will come. Next year is when you will be able to get stuff in Bend for penny's on the dollar.

What I have seen from cali is mostly losers.

Folks that wanted Aspen but they were short of the required net worth, so they came to Bend. Then they tried to create their own revenue source by selling pretty things to other equity immigrants.

Then there are the tons of folks who moved to Bend because it is "cheap", they came to rent, because its 1/3 of what it is in cali.

I'm really not sure that most cali-baggers thought far into the future, I really think they thought they were the smart ones coming early to the next Aspen.

outsiders attempting to gain political office or economic advantage

This second defn perhaps is more apt, but this gives them too much credit, perhaps Ray Kuratek ( Juniper-Ridge ) can fall in this category, or Abernethy, and a lot of City Council.

July 12, 2007 at 12:42:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

Please go into detail...


Hey I'm open, but I ain't crazy.

My lease was done 3 years ago, not so crazy.

Sales are not down 50%, dude. My neighbors sales are up, my have been running 15% up per year for the last 5 years or so.

The downturn is going to hurt, but it isn't going to hurt everyone, or everyone equally.

July 12, 2007 at 2:01:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

Hey I'm open, but I ain't crazy.

*

You cannot even speak of 'hypothetical lease terms' on the block?

I didn't suggest you were down, but I too notice on my daily strolls through downtown that things are slow.

I never see Merenda packed anymore.

WRT downtown leasing I rest my case, most folks couldn't walk if they wanted to.

My experience with downtown is that most people are on 3-5 year triple net lease deals that can cost a fortune if you bail early.

How is July/Aug so far? For the block, in your opinion? To me this summer seems very slow, the normal monday night happy hours at Deschutes have been dead, compared to past years.

July 12, 2007 at 2:36:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

I didn't really notice much of a slowdown through June. But my store sells stuff that isn't necessarily affected by outside factors.

It has been slow for the last 12 days or so. Noticeably quiet. Like I mentioned a couple of days ago, strangely quiet.

Unfortunately for me, we'll be slow going right into this weekend, bike racing, winetasting, cheese-eating, folksinging, which will kill business.

Last year on this month, I was undergoing renovations, which always cut into sales. So it would be hard not to beat last year.

Plus, I don't respond to a couple weeks or slow (or busy), which can be totally fluky.

August will be the real test.

July 12, 2007 at 4:31:00 PM PDT

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