Monday, April 9, 2007

My family usually can only get together on major holidays. Family dinners are a great place for me to get a sense how they're thinking, where my opinions are just part of the general chatter. Most of my family is considerably more 'worldly' than I. Not to say, they're right. But it's interesting to get a gauge on how they feel about things.

We had an old family friend join the table yesterday. She was thinking about selling her house. So I told her, I thought she should try to sell this spring and not wait until summer or fall. The brother in law who lives in Bend, chipped in, saying he thought that Bend was going to continue booming, that we were a baby boomer mecca.

Interestingly, our old friend seemed very receptive to what I said. I think because she had already been looking into the situation, and seemed aware of some of the developing dynamics. But what was interesting to me was that my B-in-L hasn't changed his opinion about Bend's growth whatsoever.

My other sister and brother-in-law chimed in that for 250k you could get a nice four bedroom house in Delaware. They are both professors at the U. of D. , and they mentioned that the one independent bookstore in town had all but dropped new books in favor of used books, cd's and dvd's. Both of them buy their books online. Period. No discussion. And Claus pointed to his two kids, and said, "Don't you think they are going to buy online?"

Encouragingly, both nephews are readers. I gave the younger one a copy of TinTin (which he was aware of) and one of Asterix (which he hadn't read). B-In-L Claus, being German born, was intrigued by the english translations. My other nephew got a Naruto novel and a Bleach graphic novel.

When they visited my house, earlier in the day, the 7 year old immediately took over my computer and bent it to his will. When they were ready to leave, we found him playing an online game, and my sister Sue was surprised that he'd managed to log on by himself.

I'm sure such discussions with friends and family are an everyday thing for most people. But I'm such a huge loner and usually cloistered in my store, so it is hard for me to get a range of views. What people tell me in my store is influenced by the fact that it's my store and politeness or whatever can soften people's opinions.

So I find it somewhat heartening that my brother-in-law has no doubts whatsoever that Bend is going to continue to boom. I find it valuable to know that my other brother-in-law is going to buy his books online. I find it encouraging that my nephews seem to be readers. (Though they both toted around hand held games.)

5 comments:

Unknown said...

duncan,

i think that it's safe to assume that your brother-in-law represents the consensus here in bend.

best,
jesse

Duncan McGeary said...

Not only is it the consensus, but most people seemed surprised that there is another viewpoint.

These blogs probably become echo chambers if we don't watch out.

Jennifer (ponderosa) said...

My husband grew up here. One of his co-workers is originally from CA but he and my husband went to HS together here in Bend.

The co-worker's dad is rich. Not Paris Hilton rich but he does own his own plane. He has a big log cabin on Flathead Lake in MT. Decided that winters are too long in MT and thought, I will move to Bend.

So, the rich father of this co-worker spent a week shopping for houses. Looked here, looked there, and then said: You guys are NUTS. Housing prices all over Bend are way overinflated. I'll keep to my house in MT thank you very much.

So it doesn't really matter what people in Bend think; it only matters what the rest of the nation thinks about Bend's prices. And, anecdotally, it's not favorable.

Incidentally my own father who owns a mcmansion near Philly and a log cabin near Sisters (bought 6 years ago) also thinks prices here are much too high. He would never buy at current prices, he said.

Steven said...

Unlike the doomsayers in the publishing industry, as a consumer, I don't believe that books are fated to disappear. In fact, I think that the prevalance and availability of online bookstores increases access to the back-catalog and out-of-print stuff, which expands the market rather than the opposite. This is known as the Long Tail phenomenon.

However, brick-and-mortar stores like yours, Dunc, are in *BIG* trouble if they don't get the appeal of online shopping. It's cheaper, easier to find otherwise rare stuff, offers more selection, and most important of all -- you don't have to leave your house. For commodity products like books, this represents (mostly) a superior shopping experience... with the sole exception that it's harder to browse and make those serendipitous discoveries.

I'm making a conscious effort to leave the house now and then and pick up a book or two at your place and at Book Barn. I like the contribution that a bookstore makes to the downtown ambience, so I'm willing to support this... to a point. However, just as an example, I picked up Lost Girls in your store a few months ago for $75. It's available online at Amazon for $48.

In the last few months, I've deliberately bought books downtown instead of buying them online, at the *incremental* cost of at least $150 bucks over online prices. I'm not complaining about the price difference, mind you -- I'm just pointing out that most people won't make this kind of choice just for the sake of downtown ambience.

Cheers,
Steven

Unknown said...

These blogs probably become echo chambers if we don't watch out.

Good point. We need to be conscious of our confirmation bias (snagged that doozy from a recent wsj article) so that we don't simply become commiserating dogmatists.

Still, I think that different perspectives and anecdotes, even if they are all related by topic, can be interesting.