Sunday, April 8, 2007

Lots to talk about today.

First, the article in the Bulletin about minimum wages jobs. Deschutes County has 11% of jobs at or near minimum wage. The state average is 10%. Interestingly, when you look at the map, only 3 counties are below 10% average, and 33 counties are at or above. But two of the three counties below average are Multnomah and Washington, which obviously skew the results.

You know what? This is one of those cases when the statistics are pretty darn meaningless; when common sense can probably get you closer to the truth. The article admits that we have above average numbers of restaurant and service jobs. No kidding.

Look around you. I would separate jobs in Bend into 5 camps. One, and by far the biggest is the service industry. All those restaurants and motels and retail stores. Acres and Acres of stores and restaurants and motels, filled with workers who are earning at or slightly above minimum wage, mostly without benefits. Second, government jobs, which pay decent wages. Three, industry. I can't really think of any -- a few high tech jobs here and there, but this is obviously the missing component to a healthy economy in Central Oregon. Fourth, professionals; we are pretty stockpiled with doctors and lawyers and dentists and accountants. And fifth, the real estate and construction industry, which I think have skewed the averages in Bend. If this last one starts to go down, which I think is inevitable, those minimum wages percentages are going to start shooting up.

Not to mention, Bend is as expensive or more expensive to live in than Multnomah and Washington counties, so that's a double whammy on affordability.

I also think that if you look at service jobs that are just above the minimum wage rate in Central Oregon, the picture wouldn't look so average. For instance, I pay my guy 9.00 an hour; better than minimum wage, but enough to make a real affordability difference? He's a young man, living at home, working a job he likes. But high paying? I wish.


Secondly, a word about terminology. Both my wife and I have noticed that when we use the term 'graphic novel' a certain number of people jump to the conclusion that we are using 'graphic' as in 'graphic violence'. Well, no. Graphic refers to the style of content. Art.

The term 'cult' would be very handy in my store, because it refers to things that have a 'small but passionate' following, not evil religious splinter groups. I've all but quit using a perfectly good and descriptive term.

When I try to explain that 'comics' aren't predominately for kids anymore, I'll say that they are more 'mature' or 'adult', which only compounds the problem. What I'm trying to say is that comics are like movies or books, with a wide range of content. Very hard to get across.

Another misunderstood word, which perfectly describes the order in which I've arranged my store is, 'genre'. A great word that I'm amazed so few readers seem to understand. I am forced to use the word, 'category' which is much less precise and accurate, and then follow it up with examples; mysteries, thrillers, regular fiction, ect. Genre is the right word, but I can't use it.

Also, as I write this blog, I will use terminology that could be interpreted as having a religious overtone. I may say, "thank god", or "keep the faith", or as I did yesterday, "grace." These are perfectly good ways to say things, which I would have to awkwardly and ridiculously have to bend words to avoid. I could say, 'thank the gods' like they do in Battlestar Galactica, but come on.....


Which brings me to the day before yesterday's entry. I used the term 'grace' as meaning, that period of time between when one should start to do something and when one has to do something. The period of grace in a bill payment, for instance.

But I admit, I was using it in a quasi-religious way as well, to make a point. That there is a period of 'grace' that nature, or god, or the fates or however you want to put it, has been given to those who are paying attention.

I probably should just let the comment from Bendbust go, but I can't.

I was expecting one of my friends and customers to come forward and defend me: "He's not a nice guy! He's a real bastard!"

I never thought I'd have to defend myself from the characterization of being a Bush-loving, right wing, real estate boosting, religious nut, ultra nice guy. All I can say, is that my wife got a belly-laugh out of it.

I admit, I have tried to have a reasoned and reasonable blog. The comments from those who know me, and who have listened to me rant and rave in the store over the years, is that I'm way more 'mild' on my blog.

But I have an opportunity in this venue to think about what I'm saying, to take a step back and search my feelings, and to try to reach as close as I can to what I perceive the truth to be. I have purposely left my religious or political or social views out of it, except where it relates to my business. I'm old enough to believe that I can't change people's religious and political views; moreover, that everyone has a right to their religious and political views without me haranguing them.

I hope this doesn't make me bland; there is plenty of controversy in the world without bringing up the big three of sex, religion and politics.

I believe that being candid and forthright, and attempting to be the kid who says, "Look the emperor has no cloths!" is probably unusual and interesting enough.

6 comments:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Duncan... don't give that BendBust comment a thought. It's actually pretty tame, compared to what I get! I get whomped by a good 50% of the comments, many of which are illconceived personal attacks because the person doesn't have a decent, rational argument.

What's stupid is you have come out publicly that Bend probably is experiencing a bubble, while the rest of us cowards quiver in anonymity. Which is sort of interesting... fearing the backlash of Bends RE juggernaut is pretty universal, which tells you what most people think about those in charge....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Forgot...

I would LOVE to see a piece that compares wages in Cent OR to home prices! There you would see some real interesting rationalizing by The Bulletin.

"Growth'll put out that fire!"

Duncan McGeary said...

Yeah, I feel like I'm on the conservative edge of the radical view, which to most of the world is still pretty radical.

Bend Economy Man said...

>>>You know what? This is one of those cases when the statistics are pretty darn meaningless; when common sense can probably get you closer to the truth.

I wish I'd thought to say that. That sentiment nutshells the reason why it's so obvious to me that we're in a dangerous local real estate bubble.

It would defy common sense, if not economic laws, if the prices of homes - not just mansions, but normal homes - were to increase (as they have) far past the point where people can afford to purchase them with anything but a dangerously risky loan product, and then stay there.

It's a matter of common sense that either the people living in Bend need to be a lot richer, or the price of houses need to come down. Surprisingly, the standard explanation in Bend over the last few years is that Bend will eventually become an exclusive enclave of the rich and privileged.

Who's supposed to buy the houses when most people in Bend can't afford them? Rich Californians.

OK, but what will these rich Californians do for work once they move here? They may have been rich in California, but here they have to deal with the same job market as the rest of us. The Californians either telecommute, or are so rich from their investments that they don't need to work.

So how many rich Californians who don't need a job are there? Thousands. There are three types of rich Californians: (1) rich Californians who have never heard of Bend, (2) rich Californians who are in the process of moving to Bend, (3)Californians who own property in Bend and are in the process of looking for more property in Bend, but still keep their primary home in California. The rest of them can't be called "rich Californians" because now they are Oregonians living in Bend.

Unknown said...

Great post here, Duncan:

Edit/Delete/Ban

Jason said...

They'll never be true Oregonians ... will they?

((hiding under his blanket))