In every bubble I've experienced, there is a period of grace at the end, when it is still possible to get your affairs in order. To escape. You have to be paying attention, you need to trust your instincts, but that moment is there.

I do believe it's possible Bend is at that moment.

A couple of days ago, there were three positive economic news items on the front page of the Bulletin. I then turned to my U.S.A. Today, and there were four negative economic news items on the front page.

It's spring, and if houses are ever going to start selling, it is now. But if they aren't selling, we aren't going to really hear about it for another few months. It's still a positive moment in time.

We are the second fastest growing urban area in America. But that information is from last year. You can ride that wave of positive news, but paddling out to sea expecting another big wave is more questionable. There will be plenty of people who will look at the improved sales this spring, and the positive news in the newspaper, and think the lull is over, good times will continue. That's what gives you your opportunity. You have a period of grace.

And if it should happen that they're right, and you're wrong, you don't look back. You at least got out while it was still possible to get out. You at least didn't lose money, and you have removed the distinct possibility that you could be the last fool.

It appears to me that the fundamentals just aren't on the side of the optimists. Reality has a way of reasserting itself. But there is always that moment when the optimists are still in charge, but the pessimists are right. There is no proof, no one knows for sure, but that's the way it feels to me. Feelings can be wrong, but if you wait for the evidence, it's usually too late.

God knows, I could be completely wrong. And I don't have a house for sale, which would color my thinking. And to be honest, I'm kind of in the middle in my own business between the expansion of the last few years, and the cutting back in fear of a downturn. I'm sort of maintaining the momentum. But this feeling I'm having, that this is the period of grace, is very nostalgic and very strong. As usual, I'll wait to take action when there is a bit more evidence, and as usual that may be a little too late. I'm no different than anyone else.

That's the way of a bubble. Everyone tries to play it a little too cute.