I look to see if a business is viable by these standards; could an above average smart, hard-working, honest and personable fellow make a reasonable living. If not, that fellow might be better off doing something else. If the above average joe can't make it, or has to accept below average income, then there is something wrong with the dynamics of the industry.

What always happens is that someone, no matter what the business, will be a success. Someone way smarter, hard-working, who has a strong even charismatic personality, and --- well -- is lucky, makes a go of it. And people point to that fellow as being proof that it is possible to do.

But I see that as the classic exception. That's what they mean when they say "exception proves the rule." (Or is it, "doesn't prove the rule?" I've never been sure.)

There was a entry on the Bend Economy Board of someone showing how it is still possible to buy the median home. Problem was, it required a good downpayment and two people earning a reasonable wage, with solid credit.

How many people are there like that still floating around?

And even more importantly, and left out of the equation, how many homes do we need to have on the market to absorb those folk?

We are on the cusp of where the above average, smart, financially solvent, gainfully employed, willing buyer is going to drop out of the market. Because the average smart, etc. etc. can look at the number of houses for sale, and take a step back, and wait. Or even more probably, there just aren't enough of those folk to go around, especially as it becomes harder for people from out of town to sell their houses to move here.

I think Bend has managed so far to keep attracting such folk, to even find folk who are willing to go beyond the average debt and or portion of income or have brought an above average amount of equity, or who are just plain wealthy. Because Bend really is a great place -- it feels good, smells good, looks good.

If we are very very lucky, just enough new people will move to town, and building will slow down just enough, that the dislocation doesn't collapse the market. But I think the more new houses are built, the higher the prices go, the more mindless boosterism, the farther the national real estate drops, the tighter the credit -- the more unlikely it is that we'll escape unscathed.

One thing to watch for -- a leading indicator. If you start seeing lots of people talking about 'negativity', about how if we all just stay positive and focused, that the good times will keep on rolling. And if that drumbeat become shrill, we're in trouble. Because it will mean that those who are setting the prices, who are negotiating the rents and leases, have put blinders on, are hunkering down. If you can't even acknowledge that there is a problem, then you can't very well deal with it.

We're about to find out just how hard-headed, realistic, bottom-line thinking the real estate and commercial leasers really are. Or whether they have swallowed their own line of boosterism.