Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

I'm still processing all the new information in the Bulletin over the past few days. Urban growth boundaries and predictions of growth; new destination resorts given approval; buildings being announced and even more importantly, started, in downtown Bend.

I wonder if we are just going to slam through all the weakness and just keep going.

Whatever is happening, is happening right now. We may find out in a few more months that the residential bubble has completely burst. Certainly, there is huge inventory and lower prices.
But I wonder if the commercial burst won't be enough to bridge us through to the next stable level, where the housing may again start to carry the weight, and so on.

I've always thought the commercial growth was even crazier than the residential growth, but it just keeps increasing speed, like a bike flying down a hill -- there's a very steep hill on the other side, but if it can just build enough speed it will fly to the top.

The rational part of my brain says that we have too many houses, at too high of prices; that we have too many stores and hotels and restaurants; that we have way too many destination resorts in the planning. And yet they keep getting built.

Meanwhile, the stock market reaches new highs; my own business is doing well; and I just don't get the sense of malaise I would've expected by now.

I have already postioned my business to either do well if there is an upsurge, or break-even if there is a downturn. I'm not changing my plans. I already own my house, and don't plan to move.

Other than lowering my debt, which is a good plan whether the boom continues or not, I really can't think of anything else to do. My leases, at both stores, are going to be what they are going to be; that is the one scary vulnerability I see in the future.

I'm thinking that there will prove to be a pretty significant downturn in housing prices and sales over the next quarter, but so much building and planning has been and will be set in motion that it won't matter to the overall economy, just to those individuals who extended themselves too far in the housing market. Or it could all still crash.

Right now, I'm revising the odds that we'll keep growing fast from 15% to 30%; the odds that we'll hold our own to 30%; the odds that we'll drop enough to hurt to 30%; and the odds that we'll crash to 10%. That's better than even odds, in my eyes, with significant risk. Total guesses.

Just for fun.