Thursday, September 24, 2009

29 percent?!?

O.K.

I have to say it.

I don't believe that 29% of the houses in Bend are vacant. Not even close.

That's ridiculous.

7 comments:

Duncan McGeary said...

I mean, average household size is about 2.59. If our population is 80,000, that would mean there are 30k houses, and a third of that would be 10k houses.

Not possible. Not even half that much.

There are, what?, 2000 houses for sales? Add another 1000 empty but not for sale, or for rent.

Still only a third the size quoted.

jared said...

Hey Dunc, a couple things that may help this stat make sense.

There is a percentage of our population that rents apartments.

There is a percentage that is now doubled/tripled up by living with friends and family.

From the data I have seen, there are less than 100k taxlots in all of dechutes county. Which makes sense if you really sit down and think about it.

I guess what I am trying to say, is that 80k people does not equal 30k homes.

-later :-)

Duncan McGeary said...

Yeah, Jared, I was just going to post that.

Still, a certain number of houses are rentals, thus not vacant.

Plus, this stat would almost assume that most houses 'For Sale' are vacant, and would almost need to have a large number of houses vacant that aren't 'For Sale.'

I just don't think this stat should go unchallenged. Where did it come from, WSJ?

You all know I'm no apologist for the housing market, but bullshit stats are bullshit stats.

jared said...

Like we've talked about before. Numbers are funny things. They can be made to do whatever the reporting person/agent wants.

;-)

blackdog said...

"I just don't think this stat should go unchallenged. Where did it come from, WSJ?"

Yes. Quoted in The Wandering Eye.

tim said...

When I read it, I thought it was wrong, too.

There are a lot of empties. Signs all over on houses and apartments, but still...

RDC said...

Maybe it is wrong maybe not.

If you consider that one recent analysis indicated that for every house on the market there is 5 in the "shadow inventory" status, somewhere in the default process. Also if someone is in serious financial shape and leaving the area, defaulting on their mortgage, it may be quite a while before the house makes it to REO status and appears on the market. Then add to that the number of homes in Bend that were purchased as future vacation homes (basically vacant), are currently rentals (without renters), etc. and go can get up to a substantial percentage of the housing base.