Sunday, March 1, 2009

Truth is, I don't know....

Over on BendBubble2, it's the end of the world as we know it.

Even the Bulletin seems kind of down these days in tone.

Truth is, I don't know what to think. I know I'm not going anywhere. I know I've weathered the storm pretty well, so far. I know that I can handle a little more extreme weather.

I'll just hunker down, like I always have.

I think Paul-doh has a really good point about the effect of the Baby Boomers over the next few years. I've been wondering how they are going to cash out and retire. Can't see how many of them can..... They are at a time in life when they will be consuming less; which is why I've never bought into the notion that retirement and rich settlers in Bend were the answer. (Usually, at least, you're not rich until you are older...)

On the other hand, I think that the gloomsters are missing the psychological component. Whatever that is worth. I scorned the "People want to live in Bend," to justify the boom, but I'll resurrect the phrase for those who think the bust is the 'end times.'

At the very least, we have much more beautiful 'shells' to inhabit, at least in retail, than Burns or Klamath Falls ever had. Over on Twitter, the young techno's seem subdued and somewhat alarmed, but are still chattering away. They haven't given up on Bend, yet.

At any rate, the guessing is over. We're living it. The next few months, we'll probably find that there is no uptick at all. No jobs to be had. Homes may sell, but they'll be foreclosed homes. High end will be jumping on tourists so bad, everyone will go home and mutter, "Boy, those guys are desperate...."

But I've prepared as best I can. Like I said, I'm not going anywhere, come what may.

P.S. Do I have to turn in my Pontificator Badge now that I've admitted "I don't know?"


Anonymous said...

A depression is when you don't have a job.

A recession is when your neighbor doesn't have a job.

A comic book store in Burns? So what, vital axis of two major super highways, I20&I395.

You laid everyone off, you cut the expenses and taxes to the bone. Almost all your inventory is paid for, people most likely will buy books & comics during the 'depression', remember when un-employment is over 10% its a depression, and REAL un-employment today in this area is 15% or higher.

Yes, we're here. End of the world? All depends on your debt, and whether the police are chasing your white ass. All depends on how many folks you screwed in the golden years? You didn't screw anybody did you dunc?

End of the world? Nope. BB2 Homer seems to think that Bend will be worse than Burns, to me that sounds like Paradise, Burns being 3hr drive from PDX. For these newbies like HOMER-et-al, its a fucking NIGHTMARE.

Kids? Hell yes, last saturday night I went on a damn near all night'r starting at the BBC @4pm, and going to disco's at midnight, and Summit&Blacksmith were pack'd with kids, 1,000's of kids partying and drinking.

But hell lets remember, that most kids now and in 1983, could live at home, and spend all their money on booze and post, and spend all their time chasing pussy. "END OF THE WORLD", Those worrys are for OLD PEOPLE.

KID's never worry about shit, unless its a kid going to college, but that's the good thing about BEND NOT being a college town, all our kids are losers.

Partying in BEND?? A kid, it means your stuck here an a loser, and probably working a food joint or bar, like at the BBC where I could talk, all the young girls 30+ I talked with worked restaurants, now and 1983 they all worked several. They bundle up with friends, and many have given up their auto, ... there are MANY places in Bend where you can get a beer for $2/pint.

Life is good, End of the world?? It all depends how much kool-aide you drank.

tim said...

Duncan, I personally think it's going to get really, really bad. But it was inevitable since the credit card boom of the 70s. In the end, it has to be better than a society of debt.

Bend Economy Man said...

well on BB1 we talked about how unlikely it was that the Boomers could all succeed with the same exit plan. But all the media (including our Bulletin) were hung up on the idea that this is the wealthiest generation ever and that with their 401(k)s and real estate, they'd retire rich as kings.

but now, the Boomers are the generation that knows what it's like to look for work when you're 58 years old. This wasn't such an issue in the Great Depression because if you'd lived to age 58 you were already beyond the life expectancy for your year of birth. But the 58-year-old Baby Boomer probably has at least 20 years left to worry about.

We're in demographic uncharted territory with the Baby Boomers and no one knows what will happen next. I personally think that as the BBs realize how much of their wealth has been lost and how much longer they have to live with no idea how to provide for themselves, even the most conservative BBs are going to be demanding socialized medicine.

And how many BBs (my parents included) live in too-large houses they'll have to downsize out of in a housing slump that will take maybe at least a decade to get out of? Adjusted for inflation, when will home prices get back to 2005 values? Maybe 10, 15, 20 years? In past slumps, ones much less serious than today's, it took over a decade for home prices to recover. And in this one, the demographics are such (smaller generation following a larger one) that, well, it don't look good for the BBs.