Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Well, now I've been called Chicken Little to my face....well, not really. More like a sniper attack.

Older couple was looking at books, but I was so busy I didn't even see them until they were on their way out. The older man looks me in the eye as he passes and says, "There he is, Chicken Little."

And the wife says, "Yep, there he is, Chicken Little."

I'm too surprised to say anything, as they walk out the door.

Reminds me of the first Charlie Brown strip. Couple of kids sitting on the curb. The boy says, "Well! Here comes ol' Charlie Brown!"

As Charlie Brown gets closer, he says, "Good ol' Charlie Brown...yes, sir!"

As Charlie Brown passes by, he says, "Good ol' Charlie Brown."

He frowns. "How I hate him!"
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20 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is the problem with being the lightning rod. The truth is your one of the most neutral bloggers around.

They have no other to display hatred and despite towards. Another reason to NOT be a public persona.

On the other hand, you got them in the door, now you just got to sell them something.

They obviously came into your store, for no other reason than to see the man.

You are mentioned in The Sore blogs almost weekly by HBM.

You obviously like the attention.

Remember politics and business don't mix, in spite of what a few folks say here, this is ALL about politics. The blood of politics is money, and in Bend, that be RE, and thus the blood of Bend politics is RE, and your ruining their fucking parade.

Nobody likes the bearer of bad news. Good luck.

October 31, 2007 at 7:12:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

One last comment, keep a camera around, and starting taking pic's of these people.

First of all it will make the nitwits think twice, if they know they're on candid camera for being an ass. Secondly if something nasty happens you have a public record.

Again, all readers who haven't been around for a long time, Duncan is NOT the cause of Bend's RE collapse.

The whole story sounds kind of fishy, I would more have assumed it would be you Duncan, going into other shops and calling folks chicken little.

The sky ain't falling.

It's sad that so few in Bend, do publicly say what they feel in public, but like I have said, this is a mob town, and most are quite afraid to speak out.

'Chicken Little' it would be interesting to know who started that line of thought, I'll have to google it later. Does anyone else here know of anyone calling a Realistic Analyst of the Bend-Bubble a 'chicken little'???

October 31, 2007 at 7:17:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

Seems to be lots of 'use' of "chicken little", these days. The two main uses I can find in Bend are folks that are worried about global warming, or water waste are called 'chicken little'. Maybe somebody thinks your worried about waste? On [1] personally we'll all be long dead, and long out of oil. On [2] I think it will happen sooner than people realize, all these +5acre mcMansions are on wells and irrigating 24/7, all sucking the ground water, quicker than it comes down from the mtn.

[1] Environmental: Global Warming Alarmist
Schwarzenegger twirling a globe atop his finger, with the headline: "Save the Planet - Or Else."

The cover story reports that the governor "is peddling feel-good, consumer-friendly environmentalism that resonates not only with the fluorescent-light-bulb-worshiping hybrid drivers, but also with big business and those who think 'green' is a synonym for 'Chicken Little.'

[2] water usage in Central Oregon
The State Water Resources Department has growing evidence that ground water is being consumed faster than it can be replaced. The department fears the aquifers are declining, especially in drier Central and Eastern Oregon, where irrigators and cities are more dependent on groundwater supplies than in Western Oregon. - "This is nothing other than more chicken little sky is falling B.S. from the progressives"

October 31, 2007 at 8:56:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

I found no other interesting use of 'chicken little', and certainly no prior use as an inference about folks who think there is an RE bubble.

I'm afraid your geezer patrons may have mistook you for an environmentalist. Say it ain't so Duncan, say it ain't so.

October 31, 2007 at 8:58:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

big business and those who think 'green' is a synonym for 'Chicken Little.'

*

This is getting really complicated. Does this mean that Randy Sebastian is a 'chicken little', given that he is 'GREEN'.

I do agree with the big-business, comment, big business, co-opted 'green' about 15 years ago, nothing new there. An excellent sign that 'green' means nothing is the fact that Randy Sebastian has wrapped himself in the GREEN-FLAG.

Does any of this make Duncan Green? Are the comics edible? Self fermenting? What's going on here? Do these old geezers know something that we don't???

October 31, 2007 at 9:38:00 PM PDT
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


I'll try not to impose my moral values on everyone else, but this sounds like a third world country. The rich and everyone else.

You may not be imposing your morals on anyone else, so I will!

Best Third World Town Ever? Bend!
Monday, April 2, 2007

Maybe it's best to simply lower our expectations. Living with 12 people to a home, 3-4 in each bedroom isn't so bad. And maybe Becky Breeze is right: THIS is what affordable housing really means in Bend.

So all you Californians who can "Change The World", and all others looking for a real UPGRADE in your life, well, Come One Come All! Bend is absolutely beautiful, and when you're not selling slurpies, tee-shirts, and triple mochas, you have some World-class recreation. And anyone saying you CAN'T make it here is full of crap. YOU CAN! And just because it feels like Tijuana in your living room, doesn't mean you can't go climb a mountain or ride your bike and forget the troubles at home.

So I for one am going to cast my ballot for Bend as The Best Third World Town ON EARTH! Bend DOES have a real quality of life that you can't get in Panama, Guatemala, or even Costa Rica.

October 31, 2007 at 9:45:00 PM PDT
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Now you know why so many blog anonymously in this town... retribution. Those who are being hurt blame the messenger. It's incredibly pathetic and a damning commentary that the Vast Majority are frightened into anonymity in Bend.

NOT the slightest bit interested in an enlightening conversation about the topic. Just SCREW YOU & walk out. So pathetic. And an almost pathological commentary on how important these idiots think "marketing" is: They think what you're writing is The Cause... best not look for the Real Cause.

My God, this town has some truly pathetic losers.

But I'll bet you've got 10 people who are intrigued for every loser that walks in.

October 31, 2007 at 9:51:00 PM PDT
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And I'll keep saying it.... man, a blog/e-commerce/something-else would be Gold in your line of work. A couple of old geezers walking in after reading your blog... Can't beat the price...

October 31, 2007 at 9:53:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

The folks that called out "chicken little" and then rushed for the door ought to be ashamed of themselves. They simply want to lash out at somebody and went to the trouble to find the only person who has been brave enough to identify himself.

Imagine -- "adult" people who are probably collecting Social Security checks with my taxes but acting like 8-year old bullies on the playground.

It is hard to imagine people like this not being extremely bitter and lonely in old age.

October 31, 2007 at 10:20:00 PM PDT
Little Things said...

Unreal that these were grown people. Are you sure they weren't middle schoolers dressed up like geezers for Halloween?

I'm curious, what are The Sore blogs?

October 31, 2007 at 10:25:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

I'm curious, what are The Sore blogs?
*

The SORE is The Source, a weekly in Bend, ran by Brooks to market events so that tourists come to bend to BUY real estate.

The BULL is "The Bulletin" a daily in Bend, ran by Brooks to sell tax incentives to the populace to keep Brooks 1000's of LLC's out of bankruptcy.

Have a nice day.

November 1, 2007 at 8:09:00 AM PDT
Anonymous said...

It's incredibly pathetic and a damning commentary that the Vast Majority are frightened into anonymity in Bend.

*

Fear for those who have a business, I don't know if Duncan is brave or stupid.

Generally Bend has become a party down, all year round there are VIP tents @ Drake, LS-Ampth, ... Where city money is spent in the name of PR/Marketing wining&dining the golden people. You talk in Bend about negative subjects, and you get dropped off the invitee list.

It's all going to implode, Bend is like post WWII Germany, everyone is going to be asking each other, why no one spoke-up. I always say its because everyone was on Hitlers payroll. Its the same in Bend, everyone is riding on the RE bandwagon, so nobody spoke-up. Economics is powerful incentive to keep your mouth shut.

November 1, 2007 at 8:16:00 AM PDT
Erich said...

Hey, Duncan.

Long-time Portland-area lurker and admirer of your work (and your cajones for posting publicly).

$100,000 (or more) haircuts documented for Bend houses? How can you be a Chicken Little when the sky really is falling?

BTW, Bend got some press from BusinessWeek today as a place "savvy retirees" should go to capitalize on the real-estate slump: http://snipurl.com/1t2ny.

Keep up the good work.

Eric

November 2, 2007 at 4:52:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

Thanks Eric and everyone else.

The funny thing is, in the world of bubble blogs, I'm not much of a chicken little.

Indeed, I'm almost of the opinion that Bend will survive this pretty well. The bubble needed to be pointed out to people.

On a day to day basis, I get a wide variance of opinion about housing in Bend. Talked to a woman last night who had moved here one year ago from New Jersey; I almost said, "Oh, that's was the worst time to buy," but she went on to say, that she was feeling guilty that they had forced the price down 20%.

She felt she had gotten a good deal, that she was settled and retired and showed no real awareness that maybe buying last year wasn't the best time to buy.

Her kids wanted to move to Bend, and she was sort of aware that it might be worthwhile to wait a year, but really, not a whole lot of concern.

On a day to day basis, with the general public the awareness of the bubble is general and vague and mixed with national trends and not something most people worry about.

That's why I think Bend may get through this. In my day to day contact with the public, I've come to realize that most people who want to move here aren't as worried about the housing bubble as I am.

I realized with this lady, for instance, that as far as SHE was concerned, she got her house cheap. That is a sentiment I run into a lot.

Who am I to argue?

November 2, 2007 at 5:51:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

I figure Bendbust and Paul-doh probably aren't reading an old message string so maybe they won't kill me for this.

But, what I'm beginning to realize, that I was so focused on the insane bubble, and how prices couldn't just keep going up, and houses couldn't just keep going up, and destination resorts couldn't just keep going up, and strung together faux craftsmen houses piled on top of each other couldn't keep going up, and condo's in Bend -- In BEND! The wide open spaces! -- couldn't just keep going up....that it was crazy and idiotic.

But there was no way to know what would happen later, I was only guessing, and I thought, based on my own experiences with bubbles, that it would be dire.

Well, this is later. And suddenly I'm coming around to the notion that Bend is different and special. That is, there are consequences to the bubble that may get smoothed because Bend is a place people want to live

Sort of like after a battle, and the smoke is clearing and I can see the carnage but I can also see who might be survivors and what might develop.

The commercial building, for one. Downtown Bend is going to at least LOOK prosperous for the next 2 or 3 years minimum, and that may be all it takes to make it past the bust.

Meanwhile, in talking to people on a day to day basis, I've come to believe that there is something to the idea the people are moving here who can AFFORD to move here, retirees and wealthy, and others are finding ways.

I think if I wasn't talking to these people, who show no sense of concern, I wouldn't believe it.

But there it is...

November 2, 2007 at 6:07:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
November 2, 2007 at 6:16:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

The Source is the weekly alternative paper. They've quoted my blog a few times lately, and I'd be willing to guess this couple read me there.

Or hell, they may have just overheard one of my little discussions in the store, (though it would've been a different day...)

The Bulletin is the old-line daily newspaper.

November 2, 2007 at 6:21:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

Bear with me, here. I'm not saying that prices aren't going to keep dropping, or that there aren't going to be a whole lot of bankruptcies and foreclosures. I'm not saying that all the subdivisions and destination resorts are going to be built. I'm not saying that many if not most of the new businesses are considerably underestimating the difficulty of the Bend market.

I'm saying that the overall economy may actually survive without disaster.

I love the analogy of Russian soldier detonating minefields, because that is what I think is going to happen.

As long as you stay out of the minefield, you might survive just fine.

November 2, 2007 at 6:34:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

Please note the qualifiers and distinctions I'm making here. The 'overall' economy will 'survive'; not thrive, not prosper.

The real estate people, builders and finance people should be anything but smug. Many of them will be going back to one income families for awhile, or back to cutting hair, or whatever they were doing before.

Many of the new businesses had better get ready for some slow business -- which, I very much doubt they are.

Still, all the gainfully employed, combined with the oldtimers, the smarter and savvier, the tourists, the rich and wealthy and retired, should be enough to keep the whole ediface from collapsing.

Of course, in the scheme of things, we've just started down. So I reserve the right to change my mind again. Maybe it's just my native optimism again.

November 2, 2007 at 6:48:00 PM PDT
Bend Economy Man said...

How can you be a Chicken Little when the sky really is falling?

Really!

Obviously that older couple had planned that little play-act out. Appalling and cowardly.

But BendBust is right. You're a lightning rod. What galls them is that you're an upstanding citizen, a native Bendite who's seen ups and downs before, a downtown shopkeeper, someone who deals with the public every day who's willing to express an opinion other than the Bend, Oregon sales pitch.

But I'm sure you know the tragedy of Cassandra - as the proof builds that your realistic outlook was on-the-money, don't expect anyone to come by and give you a pat on the back.

If you look at what most of the people who've been most vocal about selling Bend, they've mostly stopped putting their money where their mouth is. You don't see Becky Breeze planning new condo developments. Given that the Becky Breezes of Bend stand to lose (or have already lost) thousands or millions because of their overoptimism, don't you think they're 100x more bitter than any of us mere observers could ever be? I'm sure there are some MAJOR pessimists in Bend's real estate industry, but it's just something that they can't talk about publicly, not least because it's 180 degrees from their interests. They'd rather you be pessimistic at home, like they are.


To Paul, Dunc and BendBust, along with laziness, this is why I stopped blogging when the Bend Bubble Bust became a foregone conclusion. It was too late to raise awareness or sound the alarm - the only thing left was the macabre chronicling of the Third Death of Bend's economy. It's in noone's interests, even ours, for Bend to become known as the Black Hole of Real Estate Investment. The Law of Unintended Consequences won't let us have our town back the way it was. Never ever. The downturn is going to be accompanied by crime, drug use, divorce, blight, heartache and broken dreams. Bend is in Oregon, in the USA, on Planet Earth. It's special, Dunc, but it exists in the same plane of reality as everything else. It's special to us like a child is to his own mother.

I quit, but somehow I can rationalize commenting on you guys's blogs, because truthfully I'm fascinated with what's going on and I JUST CAN'T STOP.

On the one hand, you could call it pointing out the greed, hypocrisy and chicanery of people who packaged, marketed, branded, sold and profited from (and continue to package, market, brand and sell, if not profit from) an entire geographic area and its inhabitants to trusting out-of-staters. On the other hand, you could call it rubbing salt in the wounds of a bunch of imperfect people who moved here believing the hype. Plenty of those imperfect people are realizing that they have taken a huge step back in their finances, their careers, and their children's futures and at some point, they need hope.

November 5, 2007 at 12:44:00 PM PST

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