Friday, October 26, 2007

Eight new restaurants in downtown Bend. Three new independent bookstores in Central Oregon.

What can I say?

I can just shake my head.

I really don't know what to think. I'm told I'm cynical and acidic, but I've never thought of myself that way. I'm just trying to be realistic.

Who knows? Maybe....I can't believe I'm saying this....they know something I don't. Maybe Bend's different. Maybe this little housing bubble is a blip, and easily ignored. Maybe so much new money has come to Bend, that we'll live off the fat of the land for a while.

I know there are 3000 indy bookstores in America, or roughly one per 100k. We now have 6 bookstores servicing 200k. I have no idea if 8 new restaurants are too much....but, well, it seems like overkill to me.

But what do I know?

The public accepts them. They exist. Therefore they must deserve to exist.

I've always told myself if another comic shop came to Bend, or another game store, or another card shop, etc. that they would be living under the same rules as me; rents, employees, discounts, market.

But the big danger to me would be someone who had more money than sense. Sure, in the long run, they would have to adjust to reality. But in the short run, they could really hurt. Like I said, the public just accepts that they must be viable because they exist. If a store opens with half a million dollars worth of expensive but hard to sell pop culture statues and toys, the average customer assume the product mix must sell, because -- after all -- they exist.

If they come by a year or two later, they are surprised that the store closed with padlocks from the bank on the door. They were interested, (a year later, too late to help) so the store must be viable.

Oh, well.

How can I argue with that?

I'm tired of trying to figure it out.

6 comments:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I think a lot of the Cali noob's are just coming into town thinking, "I am so going to roll over these hillbillies!". Takes 3 years & the loss of the accumulated savings of a lifetime to convince them different.

Did you notice that several of the restaurants are actually high-end startups by existing restaurant owners? And their existing places don't seem to be busting down the doors with biz... Seems they want to grow themselves out of a slump.

Duncan McGeary said...

I've read that restaurants need to change every 7 years or so, or sell out.

Market share? Open a restaurant before someone else does?

With the demise of the Sebastion rumor, I have to retire the blog I was going to do about;

The bigger the ego shown on a T.V. commercial, the bigger the fall.

Don't know if you remember Andersh furniture, but he had these horrible lifestyle commercials. Marti's Jewelry (the lady behind Designers) had constant commercials staring her and her ex and her kids. So Randy would've fit right in.

Yeah, the "let's show them how to do it" may have been slightly valid 20 or 30 years ago, but hasn't been true for quite a while.

Like a college kid coming back home on their first vacation, everything is just too, too provincial for them anymore.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

With the demise of the Sebastion rumor, I have to retire the blog I was going to do about;

The bigger the ego shown on a T.V. commercial, the bigger the fall.


It's still a valid point, you should post it anyway. Nothing re Sebastian has officially been refuted.

Duncan McGeary said...

This is the froth of at the top of the bubble, spilling over the sides.

But how can I object? It's going to make downtown a happening place! Just as much activity on Bond as Wall, and with little old Pegasus right in the middle.

Makes me wonder if any merchants are going to stay open later. I'd be tempted if a majority tried it, but we it's been a long hard slog trying to convince downtowners to open on Sundays.

Meanwhile, the parking is going to be horrendous. Jesus. 8 Restaurants and a new motel and new stores....

They'll need to do a much better job of promoting the parking garage. It's free! It's park and walk away! It's no fuss, no muss.

The Natives Are Restless said...

One thing about Marti and Phil though, they are decent enough folks. Hell, they are/were even pretty damn good corporate citizens at times.
Randy Sebastian, now he's just a plain old, flat land, prick. I first encountered the guy about 5 years ago in Portland, and he was the single most smarmy ass that I have ever had the displeasure of meeting.

Anonymous said...

WRT the new restaurants, you guys have to rememberthat these REIT commercials are empty, these MUST giving these guys deal they cannot REFUSE. Theres a ton of EMPTY boxes coming online, it attract food entrepreneurs the way land does developers. Watch the DEEP lets so how they're doing after new-years, I know merenda is always dead these days.

On the Sebastian think, I think wizard jumped the guy, that said timmy/bendbb shouldn't have changed it. Renaissance will not go BK,what will go BK is one of the dozens of Sebastian LLC's you have never heard of, and that's probably where the wizards second ( or third hand ) rumor is a failure. Sebastian is structured just like HOllern TONS's of LLC's all under the radar.