Thursday, October 11, 2007

A plateau that looks like the Matterhorn.

Apparently, the Bulletin has absolutely no sense of irony. Check the headline on the left hand side of the business page: Market Looks to be on Plateau for Now.

Then look at the graph to the immediately right. The red graph of Bend home sales. A straight cartoon picture of a mountain, with a very steep slope up, and and equally steep slope down.

But ignore that. Never mind the 30% cancellation rates, it isn't as bad as it looks. "It sure doesn't feel that way," DuBois said.

Whew. Now I can quit worrying.
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14 comments:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

DuBois & Sebastian... they wanted some real "level headed" observers, obviously. They'll NEVER get an objective viewpoint from people like DuBois or Becky Breeze, because those people will actually be beneficiaries of the slowdown. Half the Realtors in the business today, won't be here in 5 years, but DuBois & Breeze will be, and they will pick up the slack.

Much like Pegasus...

October 11, 2007 at 9:13:00 AM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

I'm just amazed that no one at the Bulletin can see the obvious. Either that, or they have a subversive editor who put those two elements together -- which still means the rest of the staff was oblivious.

I mean, if they have to show that graph at all, you couldn've at least put it on another page.

And how can they use those statistics. 1500 houses on inventory? Do they really believe that? 40 houses coming on the market a month, and selling 100 a month means 12.5 months even with their dubious statistics.

How do they come up with that math? Do they just accept what they're told without running it through a calculator?

I figure at least a couple of thousand houses inventory, and probably more like 3000. I figure even the 100 a month sales figure is going to drop through the winter.

I have to accept their 40 houses a month figure, because I haven't seen it anywhere else. But they pretty much have to leave out subdivisions and destination resorts, which I think is disingenuous of them.

A little reporting would be nice, instead of being a mouthpiece for Opportunity Knocks!

I mean, if ever there was booster organization, it would be Opportunity Knocks!

Be a little skeptical, you know, like a reporter.

October 11, 2007 at 9:24:00 AM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

That's 12.5 months to get to 750 inventory, which would be the magic selling point.

I can understand trying to keep the illusion of a healthy market alive. But that ISN'T THE BULLETIN'S JOB!

I think my friend is the one building the 199k houses. Interesting to see what that does to housing prices....

October 11, 2007 at 9:33:00 AM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

And, oh by the way, how does the Bulletin term appraisers, brokers, builders and real estate agents as 'officials?'

'Officials' certainly sounds authoritative, but I tend to think that means government, not private industry.

That's like saying, "Doctors never make mistakes," say officials.

(Officials of the American Medical Association.....)

October 11, 2007 at 9:48:00 AM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

This whole decreasing inventory idea is kind of bogus, anyway. Is it more likely that more houses are going to come on line, or less?

We've still got to absorb all the houses in the works, even if the builders reacted immediately, which they probably didn't.

And I'd be willing to bet that the minute there was even the perception of a diminished inventory, hundreds if not thousands of houses would come on the market.

I've talked to several people who have taken their house off the market for the winter....I'm assuming that's going on all the time.

October 11, 2007 at 9:58:00 AM PDT
Anonymous said...

I hear your frustration. It's sad but not surprising that the Bulletin contines to "report" as it does. But, the primary goal of any business is to maximize the return to the owners / investors so, even with the news media, their "job" is to sell as much advertising as possible and produce a high circulation - not to report accurate stories. So, if this means "trying to keep the illusion of a healthy market alive" they will do it. And, in doing so, they will make it clear to their "reporters" - especially business reporters - that pieces submitted should fit that slant or the reporter better look for another job. And so it goes round and round. Bummer, eh?

October 11, 2007 at 10:09:00 AM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

When you look at the number of real estate ads in the paper, it makes sense.

I figure it's an editorial mandate, under the cover of 'balanced.'

Nifty trick. You take a story where 99% of the experts agree on the truth, and you give 'equal' weight to the 1% who disagrees, you're 'balanced.'

All the reader sees is a half/half split on opinion.

October 11, 2007 at 10:18:00 AM PDT
Anonymous said...

The daily debate reminds of Pavlovs dog.

Everyday all wait for the BULL to ring the bell, and all salivate.

The BULL only exists to SELL advertising, folks don't BUY unless they're happy. The BULL must report happy news, or otherwise there will be NO shopping which ultimately means No advertising. End of Story.

The SORE only exists so that Aaron Switzer can promote Brooks Resources events and draw suckers into town to sell real estate.

Given the nature of OUR TWO PRINT media, the BULL & SORE, and given the above facts. Why do the dogs continue to wait to salivate when the master prints the paper?

You really can salivate all the time, if your try very hard.

October 11, 2007 at 12:20:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

Bulletin is blog fodder. Otherwise, we're just talking to ourselves.

October 11, 2007 at 12:27:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

Bulletin is blog fodder. Otherwise, we're just talking to ourselves.

*

Yes, but the BULL is the the smoke & mirrors and HOLLERN is the wizard, they're very successful at keeping the masses focussed on the smoke & mirrors and ignoring the guy behind the curtain pulling all the strings.

The BULL may be Blog Fodder, but that doesn't mean they should be able to steer, control, and form the debate.

The MOST important issues to Bend are ignored by the BULL, only the most insipid quotes, and headlines are what the BULL prints.

From my point of view the bloggers perhaps are wannabe journalists, and like to rub shit in the BULL-DOG nose. The fact is the bloggers are way ahead of the curve, as we all know the BULL doesn't report until all the victims are buried, on any issue.

When the BULL reports any issue that is a formal signal that the issue is GAME-OVER.

The BULL isn't a newspaper its an obituary,.e.g. there is no timely 'news', only an official record of who died, and what they accomplished.

October 11, 2007 at 12:39:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

Why should the realtors and developers not be referred to as 'officials' they are the quid-pro-quo rulers of the Tri-County.

Not a chipmunk makes a move in this town without the approval of Hollern, duBois, Breeze, Garner, ...

It used to be that most advertising came from Fred Meyer, and Meir & Frank, and Les Schwab; but with the post 2002 RE boom here in Bend, most likely the ad revenue does all come from the RE crowd. Thus it would make perfect sense to refer to them as 'officials', because they are in effect the owners of the BULL.

Editor Costa knows who butters his bread, its the RE crowd of Crook, Jefferson, and Deschutes County.

October 11, 2007 at 12:47:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

The Bulletin can cherry pick and massage and show out of context and spin all the statistics they want.

As long as they report the official statistics, I can do the math myself.

That, and get feedback from national publications that usually aren't so intent on slanting.

And with these words, I've probably lost all possibility that the Bulletin will ever interview me again.

October 11, 2007 at 12:59:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

I've probably lost all possibility that the Bulletin will ever interview me again.

*

Oh, they'll interview you, controversy sell papers. They also love it when people put their foot in their mouth.

Just like when you reported on the street closures this summer, the cockroaches @ the SORE/BULL really do read this stuff.

I would always reject this type of publicity, in general it will only make you a target.

Anybody that has been around the news knows that what gets reported what what happened are never the same.

On the subject of statistics and raw data, your not talking about the NAR crap everyone uses? Government stat's are always three months old, again just obituary stat's.

The only paper I trust with stat's is the WSJ, they have no true advertisers, and their readers pay a premium for truth, and somebody in this KLEPTOCRACY has to know the truth. People don't read the BULL for truth, they read it for the same reason they watch Oprah.

October 11, 2007 at 3:44:00 PM PDT
Bend Economy Man said...

I'm just amazed that no one at the Bulletin can see the obvious. Either that, or they have a subversive editor who put those two elements together -- which still means the rest of the staff was oblivious.

I get the feeling all the time that I'm seeing wink-winks and inside-jokes in The Bulletin for the thinking people in their readership. For example, use of the word "plateau" could be a reference to the infamous quote of U.S. economist Irving Fisher just a few days before the 1929 stock market crash: "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."

And their "positive headline - positive first and last paragraphs - meat in the middle paragraphs" story structure on local economics issues is so common that it HAS to be official editorial policy.

I'd love to have a candid beer with a couple of the business reporters.

Anyway, of course most people are past the "denial" stage in their grief over the death of the Bend boom and are somewhere in the "anger" or "bargaining" parts of the cycle. We've got a ways to go before the town reaches "acceptance."

October 13, 2007 at 5:12:00 AM PDT

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