Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Listening to NPR, and they do a story on the "two year old housing drop."

Huh?

Seems like only last summer most experts said there wasn't any housing drop. How did we suddenly get to "two year old?"

Is this just another ploy by the housing market to try to convince everyone that the damage is done, it's over, time to buy?

Just weird.
Posted by at

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think that's true, if you really look at Bend, it started to go to shit summer 06, but the BIG BOYS were dumping their CACB spring 06. Thus I can see that some would say that winter 05 the Bend Bubble was over.

Certainly Bend was one of the first to turn. I think really PDX didn't turn until Spring 07, in fact the same conservative mutual fund that I know that dumped their CACB, dumped their PDX CONDO-REIT early spring 07.

So yeh, in hindsight the Bend bubble has now been imploding for two years, is it over?? Hell NO, we have at least until 2011 before the summer 06 5/1 ARMS are done resetting, and purging.

Why is NPR talking about two years? Probably so they can appear to be NOT horses asses, personally I think its all politics. The DEMS will start the 'I told you so'. Very soon.

Yeh, I can see two year argument, and then there is places like Atlanta that have definitely been down for two years. Then there is DETROIT that has been down LONGER, if you start averaging the RE Bubble Implosion, two years is probably a damn good average.

PDX was the last to start imploding, but will also be the last to recover.

Bend has ARM's reset to work-off, and inventory, like the story today in BARRON's that only 10% of empty homes are for-sale. There is a whole lot of inventory that is NOT on the NAR radar.

Yes, it's most likely been going down on average now for two years, and expect to see another four years on average of weakness, on average.

There will be some places that will boom. Certainly with WWIV coming online in Iran (WWIII was IRAQ) there will be areas that prosper.

In hindsight I can really see the peak of Bend being called at early 06, damn close to two years in my book, and the recovery in Bend?? Its going to be at least 3+ years.

Also by recovery I just mean positive, we're not going to see 2005 highs for a generation. Too much pain, besides everyone knew the babyboom was going to cause a recession in the USA from 2005->2020. When WWIV is over in about ten years, there will be a new baby boom, and life goes on.

October 30, 2007 at 9:15:00 PM PDT
Little Things said...

Here in SoCal, prices have been pretty stagnant for the past two years - most houses in our area haven't sold quickly, or at all. The good news is that our closing is tomorrow (well, technically today, as it's after midnight) and we'll be in Bend next week. Looking forward to stopping by - I need Christmas presents for my brother, who collects comics - I had him send a wish list to me!

October 31, 2007 at 12:46:00 AM PDT
Anonymous said...

A comment about the dozen new restaurants in Bend.

*

If you look closely @ Merenda, @ The Deep, you'll see the same names like Jody Denton.

One thing off the radar BIG HUGE in Bend has been catering. A lot of these places MAKE their REAL money catering to events up at Broken-Top; You must understand that the restaurant is a marketing loss/leader, and a prep-station for for workers.

The real money in Bend during the last four years has been in Catering. Like the annual Broken-Top even that happens in August, a food orgy, bad wine, all the bacon-tempura you can eat. These events are typically $300, but a vast majority of attendee's have been comped with CITY PR/MARKETING money.

We fly golden people in to Bend from all over the world to attend events and hope they write about Bend. It's all been about Food&Wine. Like today over @ Deschutes, Gary Fish has to rent out his Mtn-Room for events quite often. The folks that get to cater this shit make a fortune.

What I'm trying to say is that the gig in Bend is NOT about what you see downtown. Its about the rich&famous spending taxpayer money in gated community's at private party's. Likewise all summer long at LS-Ampth, or Drake Park, there are VIP tents full of catered food. Again a few PAY BIG BUCKS, but most of the tickets are comped by RE,MTG,and CITY PR/MARKETING.

Until money is tight, expect to see lots of NEW Bend restaurants compete for city pr/marketing catering jobs. We know that in time this money will be gone, and that is when the things will get tough, guys like Jody Denton will then just move on. Until then CATER-ON.

Broken-Top, High Desert Museum, Brooks, ... its all about gluttony; Marketing Bend as a gastronomical alcoholic paradise.

October 31, 2007 at 8:04:00 AM PDT
Anonymous said...

Why is NPR talking about two years? Probably so they can appear to be NOT horses asses, personally I think its all politics. The DEMS will start the 'I told you so'. Very soon.

*

It's important to place the implosion well into the DUBYA orchestration, otherwise the shit-eating 'REPUBS' will say the DEMS brought on the RE collapse.

They'll show that the BUST all occurred on DUBYA's guard, and then they'll show the recovery on their guard.

Hey, its politics, and it ain't got nothing to do with Bend.

October 31, 2007 at 8:53:00 AM PDT
Anonymous said...

Duncan,

Your always doing your 'socratic method' play, I think what your getting to is the BULL[etin] is still denying there was ever a BOOM or BUST, according to the BULL Bend is what its alway been the best resort in the western US, and a place where everyone always gets 30%/yr appreciation.

So then you hear on NPR ( National Petroleum Radio ) that the RE market has been going south for two years your confused.

It takes a long time for the official history to converge. The media masters are only right now trying to figure out how to write history.

We have already been told by the BULL that a negative slope means "FLAT". Bend never goes down, its impossible. Like the RE lady said BEND RE doesn't go down, it can't go any lower.

It's fairly conclusive now that that the few homes sold this summer, were in fact bought by realtors. Who are now trying to dump them.

Bend has its own NPR affiliate here, and most people in Portland (OPB) look over at Bend in dis-belief at the 'denial'. That said Bend is 99% conservative rush-limbaugh DUBYA flag-wavers, who never even heard of NPR.

It's a NON-STORY.

October 31, 2007 at 11:45:00 AM PDT
Anonymous said...

"Why is NPR talking about two years? Probably so they can appear to be NOT horses asses, personally I think its all politics. The DEMS will start the 'I told you so'. Very soon."

Uhh ... don't think so. I don't see why people are so eager to jump on politicians at this point. It is not going out on a limb to say that the U.S. RE bubble burst MUCH earlier than 2 years old. Even though the Pacific Northwest has had a long lag time relative to the rest of the country, its bubble had already burst back in 2005.

The Economist magazine wouldn't shut up about the U.S. housing bubble back in 2002-2004 (they based their hypothesis on cheap rents relative to exorbitant prices).

And back in August 8, 2005 (more than 2 years ago) let's review what Paul Krugman wrote that day:


August 8, 2005
THAT HISSING SOUND - NY Times

This is the way the bubble ends: not with a pop, but with a hiss.

Housing prices move much more slowly than stock prices. There are no Black Mondays, when prices fall 23 percent in a day. In fact, prices often keep rising for a while even after a housing boom goes bust.

So the news that the U.S. housing bubble is over won't come in the form of plunging prices; it will come in the form of falling sales and rising inventory, as sellers try to get prices that buyers are no longer willing to pay. And the process may already have started.

Of course, some people still deny that there's a housing bubble. Let me explain how we know that they're wrong....

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/08krugman.html

*

Remember: back in the summer of 2005 Bend had THOUSANDS of listings at (what I thought) were outrageous prices. The RE bubble of Bend was already "hissing" at that point.

Yes, there were lots of sales and the realtors were happy, but inventory was already piling up even more rapidly than the realtors could sell it. That's the sign of a bubble that's broken.

October 31, 2007 at 12:11:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...

Yes, there were lots of sales and the realtors were happy, but inventory was already piling up even more rapidly than the realtors could sell it. That's the sign of a bubble that's broken

*

Pay no attention to the Politicans. Pay No attention to the upcoming election cycle.

I agree, all the experts KNEW that Ben was over in the winter of 2005. That is NOT the issue.

The issue that Duncan brought up, is why is NPR now telling us ( the dumb public ), that is the issue.

I say its for politics, you said the same thing that I said, which is that by Winter 2005, we had high prices, and it was over. I don't think in hindsight anybody who paid any attention disputes that the issue is....

WHY DID THE NPR REPORT THIS AS NEWS??

October 31, 2007 at 12:54:00 PM PDT
Duncan McGeary said...

More and more reports of the housing slump being two or even three years old.

I think they're rewriting history. There were a fair number of stories about the 'bubble', but I don't remember any talking about a housing price drop until the last month or so. At least, that was the common refrain.

I suppose it's just a way for them to act like they're on top of things.

November 1, 2007 at 2:23:00 PM PDT

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)